Written question asked by David Drew (Labour) on Monday, 13 March 2006, in the House of Commons. It was due for an answer on Wednesday, 15 March 2006. It was answered by Elliot Morley (Labour) on Wednesday, 15 March 2006 on behalf of the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.

Global Warming

Question: To ask the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs what research she has commissioned into the possible relationship between global warming and drastic weather events, with particular reference to (a) flash floods and (b) hurricanes.

Answer: Over 5 percent. of the research funded by DEFRA at the Met Office's Hadley Centre for climate prediction and research is specifically aimed at gaining a better understanding of the relationships between extreme events and climate change.For example, recent research by the Hadley Centre has shown that the European hot summer of 2003 was up to four times more likely to have happened because of the increased levels of greenhouse gases. Such summers are expected to be common by the 2050s.It is not generally possible to link the intensity of individual extreme rainfalls to global climate change. Hadley Centre studies suggest that the frequency of extreme rainfall events, leading to flash flooding, may increase overall in response to global warming; although there will be local and regional variations. UK climate change scenarios issued in 2002 show an increase in the frequency of severe rainfall events across the whole country in the 2080s, compared to today.The effect of climate change on hurricanes and other tropical storms is still a matter of considerable research, at the Hadley Centre, elsewhere in the UK, and in the U.S.A. There is some evidence that hurricane intensity may increase with global warming but no clear evidence yet on how hurricane frequency might change.

Secondary information