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Migration

Answer

[holding answer 5 June 2008]: The information requested falls within the responsibility of the UK Statistics Authority. I have asked the authority to reply.Letter from Karen Dunnell, dated 13 June 2008:"As National Statistician I have been asked to reply to your question regarding what estimate has been made of the direct and indirect contribution of net migration to population growth by (a) 2031 and (b) 2056; and what proportion of total population growth each figure represents. (208820)""Net migration affects population growth both through the immediate direct impact of migrants themselves and the indirect impact through future births and deaths of migrants.""As part of the latest (2006-based) national population projections from ONS, a full analysis has been made of the impact of the assumed level of net migration on population growth in the period to 2031. This is available at""http://www.gad.gov.uk/Demography_Data/Population/2006/methodology/mignote.asp.""The following table summarises the results and shows corresponding figures for the period to 2056."

Projected population growth by component, United Kingdom, 2006-56
Million
	Between 2006 and 2031	Between 2006 and 2056
Total population increase	11	18
Resulting from:
Assumed net migration	5	10
Natural change assuming no migration	—	1
Additional natural change from assumed level of net migration	2	7

"As previously advised in my replies to earlier PQs from you (207695 and 177459), the underlying assumptions for the projections are demographic trend based and should not be seen as predictions. ""Long-term projections should be treated with particular caution. Population projections become increasingly uncertain the further they are carried forward."

Secondary information

Type

Written question

Reference

477 c569-70W; 208820

Session

2007-08

Related items

Migration
Monday, 19 May 2008
Written questions
House of Commons

Subjects

Migration

Link

View this Written question on www.publications.parliament.uk