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Population

Answer

[holding answer 10 November 2008]: The information requested falls within the responsibility of the UK Statistics Authority. I have asked the authority to reply.Letter from Karen Dunnell, dated November 2008:"As National Statistician I have been asked to reply to your question asking what the most recent forecast is of the proportion of population growth (a) directly attributable and (b) indirectly attributable to migration in each of its projections of population size (234137).""The most recent national population projections, based on mid-2006 population estimates, were published by the Office for National Statistics on 23 October 2007. The principal projection was produced using the main assumptions of future levels of fertility, mortality and migration. However, to give users of the projections an indication of the effect of higher or lower assumptions, a number of variant population projections were also produced.""An understanding of the overall effect of migration on population growth can be obtained by comparing the results of the principal and high and low migration variant projections with those of the 'natural change' (or zero migration) variant projection. Table A below gives projected components of population change for the UK in the period to 2031 in the principal projection, the high and low migration variants and the natural change variant projection.""Table B shows how the projected population growth to 2031 is broken down between the assumed level of net migration and projected natural change. Natural change is then further broken down into that projected in the absence of migration and the additional natural change from the assumed level of net migration. So, taking the principal projection for example, some 47 per cent of population growth is therefore directly attributable to the assumed number of net migrants. The remaining 53 per cent is attributable to projected natural increase (of which 31 per cent would occur in the absence of net migration and 23 per cent arises from the effect of net migration on natural change). In total, therefore, some 69 per cent of population growth in the period to 2031 in the principal projection is attributable, directly or indirectly, to future net migration.""Projected population figures are unchanged since my previous response to PQ 169089 (3 December 2007) concerning the same subject."

Table A: Projected population change, United Kingdom 2006-31
Thousand
	High migration variant	Principal projection	Low migration variant	Zero migration variant
Population at mid-2006	60,587	60,587	60,587	60,587
Population change (2006-31)
Births	20,305	19,847	19,390	17,458
Deaths	14,291	14,247	14,202	14,244
Natural change	6,014	5,601	5,188	3,214
Net migration	6,382	4,912	3,442	0
Total change	12,396	10,513	8,630	3,214
Population at mid-2031	72,983	71,100	69,217	63,801

Table B: Projected population growth by component, United Kingdom, 2006-31
	High migration variant	Principal projection	Low migration variant
Total population increase between 2006 and 2031 (Thousand)	12,396	10,513	8,630
Resulting from:
Assumed net migration	6,382	4,912	3,442
Natural change assuming no migration	3,214	3,214	3,214
Additional natural change from assumed level of net migration	2,800	2,387	1,974
Percentage of population growth 2006-31 resulting from:
Assumed net migration	51	47	40
Natural change assuming no migration	26	31	37
Additional natural change from assumed level of net migration	23	23	23
Source:
Migration and Population. Growth:
http://www.gad.gov.uk/Demography_Data/Population/2006/methodology/mignote.asp

Secondary information

Type

Written question

Reference

483 c410-2W; 234137

Session

2007-08

Subjects

Population

Link

View this Written question on www.publications.parliament.uk