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Cannabis

Answer

[holding answer 13 January 2009]: In respect of the movement to Class B alone on the numbers using cannabis there is no claim that this alone will act as a deterrent on cannabis use.The Impact Assessment (IA)¹ on the reclassification of cannabis looks at reclassification alongside a step change in enforcement response and the potential change in the estimated population of cannabis users. Based on existing evidence the IA makes a series of key assumptions; it forecasts potential liabilities and volumes associated with the legislative and proposed enforcement response. These assumptions include a reduction in the population of serious cannabis users following recent British Crime Survey trends, desistence from users 'getting older' and increased desistence of users is assumed following more robust contact with police and the Criminal Justice System. The full IA can be found at:"http://www.opsi.gov.uk/si/si2008/em/uksiem_20083130_en.pdf"Over the seven year period examined in the impact assessment there is estimated to be a desistance of an additional 23,000 serious cannabis users under reclassification alongside the associated enforcement response. The estimated difference in total population of serious cannabis users under reclassification and the enforcement response is set out in Table 8 of the aforementioned impact assessment.There has been no assessment of how cannabis reclassification will impact on those using other illegal drugs."¹ In preparing the response to this PQ a minor drafting error was identified in the Impact Assessment (IA). As a consequence the IA was withdrawn from the public domain. A revised version was re laid in Parliament on 16 January 2009."The erroneous sentence in the IA stated:"““Over the entire period, the change option is estimated to result in the desistence of 72,000 additional serious cannabis users””"and appeared on page 15 of the original IA as found on the OPSI website. The cited figure of 72,000 was incorrectly quoted as a result of misinterpretation of the figures in Table 8 as relating to annual levels of desistence, rather than the cumulative level of desistance. The correct figure of 23,000 additionally desisting over seven years was cited in the preceding sentence and contained in Table 8 of the IA. Following the identification of this error a full review of all figures and tabular information contained in the IA has been conducted. There have been no errors in the original calculations contained within the IA.

Table 8: Estimated total population of serious cannabis offenders by year
	Population of offenders, do nothing	Population of offenders, change	Difference	Percentage
Base	416,769	416,769	0	0.00
2	396,179	396,491	-312	-0.08
3	376,576	373,297	3,279	0.87
4	357,914	352,153	5,761	1.61
5	340,148	331,124	9,024	2.65
6	323,240	310,103	13,138	4.06
7	307,153	289,260	17,892	5.83
8	291,849	268,836	23,013	7.89

Secondary information

Type

Written question

Reference

488 c672-3W; 245483

Session

2008-09

Subjects

Cannabis

Contains statistics

Yes

Link

View this Written question on www.publications.parliament.uk