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Pupils

Answer

National pupil projections take account of several factors, including actual pupil numbers derived from the School Census, expected trends in participation for children outside statutory school ages, and the latest population projections produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).The following tables show the actual number of pupils in maintained and state funded schools in 2008 and 2009 together with the projected number of pupils up until 2017. Projections beyond 2017 are not shown here due to the increasing uncertainty over time. The projected pupil numbers take account of 2006-based principal national population projections. These population projections include assumptions about future levels of fertility, mortality and migration. Details of these assumptions are published on the ONS website at:"http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_population/PT129_Long_term_assumptions.pdf"

Local authority maintained and state funded schools: full time equivalent number of pupils—years 2008 and 2009 (actual); coverage: England
Thousand
	FTE number of pupils
2008	7,385
2009¹	7,335
¹ Provisional.
Notes:
1. Includes maintained nursery, primary, secondary and special schools, pupil referral units, city technology colleges and academies.
2. Full time equivalent numbers count part time pupils as 0.5.
3. Numbers have been rounded to the nearest 1,000.
4. Includes pupils with sole and dual registration.
Source:
School Census

Local authority maintained and state funded schools: full time equivalent number of pupils—years 2010 to 2017 (projections); coverage: England
Thousand
	FTE number of pupils
2010	7,340
2011	7,361
2012	7,398
2013	7,447
2014	7,502
2015	7,572
2016	7,654
2017	7,748
Notes:
1. Includes maintained nursery, primary, secondary and special schools, pupil referral units, city technology colleges and academies.
2. Full time equivalent numbers count part time pupils as 0.5.
3. Numbers have been rounded to the nearest 1,000.
4. Projections use the mid 2006-based ONS population projections and are based on 2007 School Census data. Updated projections (for ages up to and including 15) are due to be published in the Departmental Report on 12 June.
5. Includes pupils with sole and dual registration.
6. Experience has shown that totals in maintained primary and secondary schools are usually within ±0.2 per cent. for the first projected year. There is less certainty in the longer term. Factors which contribute to differences between projections and outturn data include the underlying population trends, participation among those under and over compulsory school age, and variations of proportions attending independent schools. Projections are increasing in uncertainty.
7. Projections allow for increase in take up of early years education towards universal provision.
Source:
DCSF pupil projections

Updated projections for the number of pupils (aged up to and including 15) will be published in the 2009 Departmental Report on Friday 12 June. These will take into account provisional 2009 School Census data.The ONS also produce population projections based on 'zero migration' variant. The 'zero migration' variant projection assumes that net migration will be zero at all ages throughout the projection period but makes the same assumptions about future fertility and mortality as the principal projection.As part of the pupil projections work programme, officials plan to investigate the migration component of the pupil projections using the 'zero migration' (natural change only) variant. This is expected to be completed by early autumn 2009. Once this work has been completed we will then be able to explore scenarios for different levels of migration.

Secondary information

Type

Written question

Reference

493 c918-20W; 278228

Session

2008-09

Related items

Childbirth
Monday, 30 March 2009
Written questions
House of Commons

Subjects

Admissions Schools Pupil numbers

Contains statistics

Yes

Link

View this Written question on www.publications.parliament.uk