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Primary Education: Pupil Numbers

Answer

The Department's projections for the number of pupils in maintained primary schools in England between 2009/10 and 2016/17 are given in the following table.Projections are not published beyond 2017 due to the increasing levels of uncertainty over time. For example, the outturn for January 2009 differed by nearly 1.0 per cent. from our 2003 based projection for that year, but was less than 0.2 per cent. out from our 2008 based projection. Factors which contribute to differences between projections and outturn data include the underlying population trends, participation among under fives and variations of proportions attending independent schools.

Maintained primary schools, full-time equivalent number of pupils¹, ², ³, 4, 5, 6, 7
Thousand
At January in each academic year	Maintained primary schools
Actual
2008/09	3,947
Projected
2009/10	3,967
2010/11	4,010
2011/12	4,081
2012/13	4,176
2013/14	4,292
2014/15	4,376
2015/16	4,437
2016/17	4,483
¹ Full-time equivalent numbers count each part-time pupil as 0.5.
² Figures are rounded to the nearest thousand pupils.
³ The data include dually registered pupils.
4 Experience has shown that totals in maintained primary schools are usually within ±0.2 per cent. for the first projected year. There is less certainty in the longer term. For example, the outturn for January 2009 differed by nearly 1.0 per cent. from our 2003 based projection for that year, but was less than 0.2 per cent. out from our 2008 based projection. Factors which contribute to differences between projections and outturn data include the underlying population trends, participation among under fives and variations of proportions attending independent schools.
5 Projections allow for increase in take up of early years education towards universal provision.
6 Projections use the mid-2008 based Office for National Statistics (ONS) population projections.
7 The previous projections (PT278), published in Annex N of the Department's Annual Report of June 2009, used the mid-2006 based ONS population projections.
Sources:
School census (January 2009) and DCSF pupil projections (PT279, December 2009)

The Department does not allocate funding on a phase basis, so no figures for primary school funding are available. Total Dedicated Schools Grant (DSG) funding figures for pupils aged three to 15 for Southampton LA, Portsmouth LA, Hampshire LA and south east LAs in 2009-10 (final allocations) and 2010-11 (indicative allocations) are shown as follows. No funding allocations have been made beyond 2010-11 at this time. (Allocations for Test Valley borough are included within Hampshire LA.)

£ million
Local authority	Final 2009-10 DSG allocations	Indicative 2010-11 DSG allocations
Southampton	112.153	117.063
Portsmouth	101.015	104.174
Hampshire	692.510	720.147
South East LAs	4,546.166	4,735.011

These figures are for DSG revenue funding only and exclude any capital monies.Further details can be found at:"http://www.teachernet.gov.uk/management/schoolfunding/schoolfunding2008to11/dsg200811/"In addition to DSG, further funding to schools is available through specific grants such as the School Standards Grant, School Development Grant and other Standards Funds. Further details for the latest specific grant allocation in 2009-10 and 2010-11 are available at:"http://www.teachernet.gov.uk/management/schoolfunding/schoolfunding2008to11/specificgrants200811/"In November 2009, the Department announced the allocation of £1,000,000 to Southampton LA to support the provision of additional primary places by 2011. This was part of a total of £271 million that was allocated to 34 authorities which had applied for exceptional funding for additional primary school places where there was greatest need. Hampshire LA also applied for this funding, but did not meet our criteria of high growth and need.

Secondary information

Type

Written question

Reference

506 c314-5W; 313879

Session

2009-10

Subjects

Admissions Primary education Schools South East Pupil numbers

Contains statistics

Yes

Link

View this Written question on www.publications.parliament.uk