Oral question asked in the House of Lords, by Lord Barnett (Labour). It was answered on Tuesday, 6 July 2010.

Office for Budget Responsibility

Question: I thank the Minister for his Answer. Can he tell us whether it was the sheer incompetence of the Government in not letting the OBR have independence that led Sir Alan Budd to resign, or was it my Question? Is not the real problem the reliability of the OBR’s forecasts? Is the Minister aware that the OBR has itself expressed great uncertainty about its forecasts? In the circumstances, and given the possibility that it could be wrong, as many leading economists have said, is it set in stone that the OBR should continue with its actions even if the economy has actually gone into a downturn even faster than the OBR had forecast?

Answer: My Lords, in answer to the first question, I am sorry to pour cold water on a newspaper story, but Sir Alan always planned to leave in the summer. He was appointed to provide forecasts for the emergency Budget and to advise on the establishment of a permanent OBR, which is exactly what he has done and will continue to do. The noble Lord, Lord Barnett, asked, secondly, about what he described as "uncertainty" around the forecast. The whole point about the way in which the OBR has presented its forecast is that it has given a transparent probability distribution. The Treasury has never done that before in its forecasts; it has simply given a line and not explained the variability around it. Forecasts are of course subject to probability distributions and the OBR has followed the best practice for forecasts that the Bank of England and others have used for many years. As to what will happen if the forecasts change, the Chancellor has set a fiscal mandate and it is the responsibility of the OBR following each Budget or other fiscal event to report on whether his latest announcement still sets a course that has a 50 per cent or greater probability of meeting the mandate.

Secondary information

Type: Oral question
Reference: 720 c94
Session: 2010-12
Oral question type: 1st Supplementary
Chamber / Committee: House of Lords chamber
Related items: Office for Budget Responsibility
Wednesday, 21 July 2010
Written questions
House of Lords
Subjects: Forecasts Public finance Resignations Office for Budget Responsibility Budd, Alan Political impartiality
Link: View this Oral question on www.publications.parliament.uk