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Home Office

Answer

Mr. Clappison: To ask the Secretary of State for the Home Department what estimates he has had made of the likely change in the number of juveniles sentenced to custody during the next five years. [81979] Mr. Boateng: Projections have been made of the number of young prisoners who it is expected will be either serving a custodial sentence or held on remand in all forms of secure accommodation. The projections are based on two possible scenarios: The assumption that the use of custody by the courts increases by 0.6 per cent. per year for males and 1 per cent. for females, which is in line with recent trends; and the assumption that, in addition to 1, there is an increase in average sentence length of 1.5 per cent. per year for males and 2 per cent. for females. The tables also allow for seasonal variations in each year. Expected populations of prisoners aged under 18 _________________________________________________________________________________________________. Remand Sentenced Assumption 1 1998-1999{1} 900 1,800 1999-2000 1,000 1,700 2000-2001 1,000 1,800 2001-2002 800 2,000 2002-2002 700 2,100 2003-2004 700 2,100 2004-2005 700 2,200 Assumption 2 1998-1999{1} 900 1,800 1999-2000 1,000 1,900 2000-2001 1,100 2,100 2001-2002 900 2,400 2002-2003 800 2,400 2003-2004 800 2,600 2004-2005 800 2,700 _________________________________________________________________________________________________. {1} Provisional Actual outcomes will depend on the decisions of the courts. Other scenarios are possible. For further information on the methodology of the projections see "Projections of Long-Term Trends in the Prison Population to 2006", Home Office Statistical Bulletin 1/99, copies of which are in the Library.

Secondary information

Type

Written question

Reference

330 c108W; 81979

Session

1998-99

Subjects

Custodial treatment Prisoners on remand Young offenders Secure accommodation

Contains statistics

Yes