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European Union (Accessions) Bill

The hon. Gentleman is previous in referring to me as a Minister. I shall give way shortly. What are the Government’s predictions for migration flows from Romania and Bulgaria in the event of expansion going ahead? How have they revised their methods in the light of how wide of the mark the previous predictions were? The accession treaty provides for the suspension of the free movement of workers in whole or in part if member states undergo or foresee serious disturbances of their labour markets. Given what has happened since May 2004, we can anticipate that many Romanian and Bulgarian citizens will want to come to Britain. There are strong economic reasons why many may want to do so. According to the Commission’s most recent figures, both Romania and Bulgaria, despite their high rates of growth, still enjoy an average gross domestic product per head of only a little over 30 per cent. of that of the EU 25. There are other concerns that the Government must take into account. The Commission’s report raises the serious problems of organised crime and inadequate border controls. There is also people trafficking, which was also mentioned earlier. As the House knows, that problem is particularly severe in Moldova and Ukraine, both of which share a frontier with Romania. The Government must address that issue very seriously.