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Zimbabwe

My Lords, I, too, thank the Minister for repeating the Statement and for updating it. Things are moving very fast and much has changed since yesterday. Because we were not given this Statement yesterday, I asked for it to be taken today, to give us a chance to hear from the Minister about this fast-developing area. I thank the usual channels for allowing that. I did not anticipate that Mugabe might be removed, as now seems possible, by peaceful, democratic means. That makes me feel incredibly optimistic about development in Africa. However, we must make sure that the citizens of Zimbabwe, who are not resorting to violence, are supported and reinforced in their exercise of democracy. We are still in very dangerous and fluid circumstances and the present crisis is far from over. Can the Minister update us on whether he feels that the parliamentary elections have been fair? The new system of posting results outside polling stations, which are then systematically recorded by the MDC, often on mobile telephones, has made it much more difficult to rig this election. Will the Government support pressure for full results to be published and compared? What more can the Minister tell us of the presidential election? Does he think that there might be a further contest? What role is the military playing? Does the Minister that that, as is rumoured, it plans a campaign of violence to keep Mugabe in power? Yesterday, Zimbabwe’s Deputy Information Minister called the Opposition’s claim of victory ““irresponsible”” and said: "““They think they can provoke the police and the army””." Will the Minister do all that he can to ensure that any actions by the police and the army to frustrate the will of the electorate will not be countenanced by the international community, particularly by SADC, whose declared standards would be breached by such political engagement by the police and military? Will the noble Lord assure us that he will ask South Africa, the AU and the UN to make that clear? What role is SADC playing? Is it correct that SADC leaders are now pressing Morgan Tsvangirai to be accommodating? In the longer term, what we know about fragile states has immense importance here. We cannot let Zimbabwe slide into chaos. Could the Minister assure us that, even though we have pressing concerns in Iraq and Afghanistan, we will not let Zimbabwe slide down the agenda? How does he think we should balance the claims of those in the old regime? They did little to move this day forward until they saw the economic and political writing on the wall, as it is clear they now do. On the other hand, does he think it better for them to be inside, rather than outside wishing any new regime ill? Last year, the FCO gave us a full and impressive briefing on the plans of the international community for a post-Mugabe era. Could the noble Lord update us on those plans? The Guardian reports that £1 billion in aid is likely to go to Zimbabwe. Can he confirm this and could he describe its outlines? What will happen in the near future to food aid and, in the longer term, to agricultural development and efforts to tackle HIV/AIDS, on which we have just had a debate? Aid must not be siphoned off by international corporations, as has happened in Afghanistan. Local enterprises must be given the investment that they need to build a stable foundation for a revived economy. The assistance given to resettle returning exiles, as happened in the Balkans—albeit with the possible resentment of those who stayed behind—will be important. There will need to be programmes to reskill people. A quarter of Zimbabwe’s people have fled abroad, many with the skills that are needed to restore the institutions and the economy. Investment in education and training will be vital, especially for the young people, many of them orphans, who have been subjected to brainwashing in the youth militia. Free and open political debate must be fostered. A reformed media environment will result in a redrawing of the political landscape. In conclusion, does the Minister share my optimism that, if Zimbabwe successfully comes through this crisis, its future will be much brighter? However, it will need sustained effort by the international community if the long years of devastation are to be reversed. I have heard it said that it would take seven years to turn around each year of the chaos caused by Mugabe. Does the noble Lord agree that this means that the international community needs to be there for the long haul and not simply for a year or two?