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Zimbabwe

My Lords, I echo the comments of my noble friend Lord Morris and other noble Lords in offering congratulations to the people of Zimbabwe on their bravery and dignity in voting for change decisively—I use that word because I believe that they have voted decisively, given all the obstacles placed in their way, not least the fact that some 4 million Zimbabweans abroad have been denied the right to return to vote. However, I have some difficulty in echoing the views of my noble friend Lord Morris about the tipping point. I fear the scenario alluded to by the noble Baroness, Lady Northover—that if, as seems inevitable, the presidential election goes to a run-off, ZANU-PF will invoke the military, as it did in the 2002 elections, intimidating the MDC, preventing it from campaigning and seeking to return Robert Mugabe to power. I welcome the Minister’s confirmation that a $1 billion package is being discussed. I hope that it will be further discussed at the IMF spring meeting in Washington later this month. My question inevitably must be this. If somehow Mugabe manages to hang on, I do not believe any longer that we can leave the people of Zimbabwe on their own in light of the bravery that they have shown, so what plans will the Government make as a contingency—a so-called plan B—if the people are not given the outcome of the election that they have claimed?