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Defence Procurement

That is a very fair question. If we intend to be a major part of the second rank, as we have been since 1970, and do not want to drop down to the lower divisions, we have to do something quite expensive about the quality of not only the personnel but the equipment. In fairness—I am being very fair to the Government—the Government fully support Trident, the joint strike fighter, Eurofighter, the carrier programme and so on. All the equipment must have come as a bit of shock to the Conservatives, who probably could not believe that a Labour Government would take such expensive and correct decisions, facing down those in their own party who are still hypercritical. On the Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre website, I saw a superb unclassified document called ““The DCDC Global Strategic Trends Programme 2007-2036””—a modest remit to address. It is difficult to predict the future; probably Nostradamus was the best at it, but his sayings lacked the precision necessary to help a defence planner. Clearly, when the Treasury considers proposals put before it, it will try to gauge whether the equipment is affordable and desirable given the time frame involved. The report considers the endless range of issues, including climate change and globalisation, that could become security and military problems in the next 15 to 30 years. However, it hedges its bets. Let us consider how dangerous the environment could be in future, given the long list of 20 potential problems. If we add to that the rise of potential new superpowers and the resumption of arms races, we find that we may face such a multitude of problems, requiring such a range of responses, that the costs will be prohibitively high. Will we be required to fight a war of survival—we were drifting into such a situation during the cold war—as well as having to deal with all the other issues involving our forces? I can only hope that those with greater experience and access are in a position to say, ““These are the threats that we will face in five, 10, 15, 20 or 25 years.”” Given how procurement proceeds in this country, we need to start thinking very seriously about the weaponry that we might need for 2025 or 2030. There will be mistakes in procurement decisions; we will order weapon systems that are superfluous by the time that they can be deployed. The Government should be prepared to think carefully, spend money and look into the future with as much precision as possible. By 2010, 2015 or 2030, unless we have quality personnel and equipment, the country will find itself in a distinctly embarrassing situation.