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Government Statistics

My Lords, as the noble Lord, Lord Hamilton, illustrated in his excellent introduction to this debate, there are two ways in which government statistics can go wrong. One is that the statisticians get it wrong, which undermines public confidence. There was an example of that earlier this year when the forecast of what had happened to GDP was revised from minus 1.6 per cent to minus 1.9 per cent. As an economist, I have to say that that was a modest adjustment. However, it caused a tremendous kerfuffle in the press, which thoroughly enjoyed exploiting it. But that is a rare way for statistics to go wrong. What is much more common is when politicians bend statistics to suit their ends. I will not give examples of that if only because my party has been in power most recently and is probably the most serious offender. But if we are honest, they all do it: Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, in opposition and in government. They do it year in and year out. I applaud the efforts of Sir Michael Scholar and the UK Statistics Authority to act as referee in this Eton wall game of brutality, to no effect. It was very brave of Sir Michael to take on No. 10 so early in the life of his organisation. However, to be fair to Ministers, they did set up the statistics authority, which is a bit like burglars voting for more powers for the police. But they did it and they should get the credit. I speak tonight to introduce to your Lordships’ House a new campaigning organisation called Straight Statistics, of which I have the honour to be the chair. It has been set up to combat the epidemic—I do not think that that is too strong a word—of statistical abuse that is sweeping through our national life. We launch formally on 17 June. Of course politicians are not the only ones who bend the facts. Advertisers do it, companies do it, and PR companies do it in spades. The worst culprits, let us face it, are the newspapers, many of which never let statistical integrity stand in the way of a good story. But although there are many offenders, government statistics should be the gold standard by which the statistics of others and their use are judged. If government statistics are once distrusted, there is no basis in fact on which our national policy and political life can proceed. Many in your Lordships’ House have supported Straight Statistics. I am delighted to say that two noble Lords who have already spoken, the noble Lords, Lord Moser and Lord Jenkin, both sit on our council. The noble Baroness, Lady O’Neill, in her role as chair of the Nuffield Foundation—I am sorry that she is not in her place tonight so that I could thank her publicly—has provided the funding, and we have had from the very start 100 per cent backing from Sir Michael and his vice-chair at the UK Statistics Authority, Sir Roger Jowell. They have done so not because they think that a campaigning organisation is a substitute for their work, but because it can act as a light-footed complement. I may say too that the Royal Statistical Society, which could well have regarded us as a rival, has instead embraced us as a member of our executive and is doing everything it can to help. All these statistical luminaries wish us well and I hope that the House will do so too.