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Social Security (Reduced Rates of Class 1 Contributions, Rebates and Minimum Contributions) Order 2011

My Lords, I again thank the Minister for his full explanation of this order, which sets out the revised national insurance rebates for contracted-out pension schemes. As we have heard, the figures are provided for contracted-out money purchase schemes and appropriate personal pensions, although the planned abolition of contracting out on a defined contribution basis from 6 April 2012 means that these will never come into effect. Again, as we have heard, these changes are based on a report by the Government Actuary which, in contrast to previous reports, sets out three alternative valuation approaches. The Government, of course, have adopted the basis which provides the lowest level of rebate—4.8 per cent—and taken account of the changes in state pension age provided for in the Pensions Bill. I noted that the Minister hinted that should those changes not proceed, there would be a review of the 4.8 per cent figure. The rate is below the 5.3 per cent rate adopted for the five-year period to 2012. The Explanatory Notes make it clear that the annual savings to the Exchequer from reducing the rebate is about £600 million. I am trying to understand what the other side of that saving is. Is it that the cost is greater on employers and employees; and/or is it that the cost of providing the relevant benefits is reduced? What is the other side of the saving that the Government make? The note also states that a full impact assessment has not been published because it will have no new impact on the private sector. How does this differ from public sector employees and employers, where it is confirmed that there will be a small increase in national insurance contributions by each? I do not fully understand how it can have an impact on the public sector but not on the private sector. More fundamentally, can the Minister expand on the rationale for adopting the best estimate approach? Paragraph 6.4 of the actuary’s report states that this basis of valuation means that the rebate, "““is expected to be sufficient, half the time, to cover the cost of providing benefits equivalent to the state second pension forgone””." What about the other half? On what basis were the other valuation approaches rejected? To the extent that the best estimate falls short, where are the costs and risks being borne? It will be interesting to have data on what the difference will be for someone on median earnings and at or above the UAP. The Government Actuary’s report is a complicated document and I am not sure that I have absorbed all of it. I hope the Minister and his team will be able to help us out on those particular inquiries.