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European Union Bill

My right hon. Friend is absolutely correct about the views of the Electoral Commission, which I believe it expressed publicly in its response to the amendments passed in the other place. There could be some perverse, although unintended, I am sure, effects if the threshold amendments were upheld. In some circumstances, there would be an incentive for one side in the referendum campaign to urge abstention rather than support in an effort to keep turnout below the magic threshold of 40%. It could also mean some very peculiar outcomes. Obviously we are talking hypothetically, but if we stuck with the 40% threshold, a poll would be deemed invalid if there was a turnout of 39% in which 5% voted one way and 34% voted the other, whereas a poll with a turnout of 41%, with 21% voting one way and 20% voting the other—the 1% margin—