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Undocumented Migrants: English Channel

Answer

The Met Office provides the Home Office with a daily assessment of the likelihood of at least one small boat crossing attempt which translates into Red, Amber and Green days. This assessment takes multiple factors into account - further detail on the methodology can be found in the previous Home Office publication at www.gov.uk/government/statistics/small-boat-arrivals-and-the-impact-of-crossing-conditions/small-boat-arrivals-and-the-impact-of-crossing-conditions.

The Home Office began receiving the Met Office assessment from September 2019, as such some of the data requested is unavailable. Available data on the number of red days is provided below up to 31 August 2026 – while this goes beyond the periods requested, it is provided in one place for completeness. This data shows that there have been more favourable crossing conditions so far this year than the same period in almost any year since 2020. Red days this year have already exceeded the 106 recorded in the whole of 2022, which saw a record 45,000 migrants arrive in small boats.

To provide additional context to the request, the average number of arrivals per red day per year (to date) has also been provided. This demonstrates a notable reduction in the average number of arrivals per red day in 2026 (to 31 August). The average number of migrants arriving on red days between January and August has fallen by 38% from 232 to 144 over the past year. This represents a 43% drop from the peak of 251 in 2022.

Table 1. Number of red days per month – September 2019 to August 2026

	Red Days
2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Jan	-	8	3	9	4	5	17	6
Feb	-	0	3	0	10	5	8	5
Mar	-	1	9	11	3	9	19	18
Apr	-	11	8	7	6	8	16	14
May	-	12	6	16	13	21	13	20
Jun	-	11	18	11	16	20	16	16
Jul	-	14	14	12	10	18	22	15
Aug	-	14	7	16	14	16	12	16
Sep	3	12	14	13	15	13	9	-
Oct	5	3	4	6	6	19	11	-
Nov	2	13	11	4	3	13	8	-
Dec	5	4	6	1	2	10	5	-

Table 2. Average number of small boat arrivals per red day per year to date (1 Jan - 31 Aug)

YTD 2019	YTD 2020	YTD 2021	YTD 2022	YTD 2023	YTD 2024	YTD 2025	YTD 2026
Total	N/A	53	136	251	208	194	232	144

Secondary information

Type

Written question

Reference

26941

Session

2026-27

Grouped for answer

Yes

Subjects

Immigration controls Undocumented migrants English Channel

Contains statistics

Yes

Link

View this Written question on www.parliament.uk