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Written question asked by Lord Elliott of Mickle Fell (Conservative) on Wednesday, 2 April 2025, in the House of Lords. It was due for an answer on Wednesday, 16 April 2025. It was answered by Baroness Sherlock (Labour) on Wednesday, 16 April 2025 on behalf of the Department for Work and Pensions.

Universal Credit: Forecasts

Question

To ask His Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s assessment in its Economic and Fiscal Outlook March 2025 that 3 million people will be in receipt of the Universal Credit health element in 2029–30; and how many people they forecast will be in receipt of it in 2029–30, by age and region.

Answer

The Memorandum of understanding between the Office for Budget Responsibility, HM Treasury, the Department for Work & Pensions, and HM Revenue & Customs sets out the responsibilities of the OBR and government departments in the preparation of forecasts for welfare spending at fiscal events, including how this is presented in the OBR’s publication the Economic and Fiscal Outlook.

In line with paragraph 2.7 of the MoU, the DWP forecasts for the UC health journey caseloads are produced in consultation with OBR and are consistent with the OBR Spring Statement 2025 forecasts. These will be published in the DWP’s Outturn and Forecast tables on 23rd April.

Figures by region and age are not available for UC health journey caseloads.

Secondary information

Type
Written question
Reference
HL6491
Session
2024-26
Related items
Office for Budget Responsibility: Economic and fiscal outlook
Wednesday, 26 March 2025
Command papers
House of Commons
House of Lords
Subjects
Health Forecasts Universal credit
Contains statistics
Yes
Link
View this Written question on www.parliament.uk