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Lords motion to take note of the level of preparation by His Majesty’s Government in adapting to the impacts that climate change will have on health, the economy, food security, and the environment. Agreed to on question.
Lords motion to take note of the level of preparation by His Majesty’s Government in adapting to the impacts that climate change will have on health, the economy, food security, and the environment. Agreed to on question.
To ask Her Majesty's Government, further to the World Health Organisation’s recommendation that the ideal room temperature for healthy and appropriately dressed people is 18 degrees Celsius, what plans they have, if any, to introduce an information campaign to encourage people to reduce their room temperatures.
To ask Her Majesty's Government, further to the World Health Organisation’s recommendation that the ideal room temperature for healthy and appropriately dressed people is 18 degrees Celsius, what plans they have, if any, to introduce an information campaign to encourage people to reduce their room temperatures.
The Met Office’s WeatherReady campaign, run in partnership with Cabinet Office and expert partners, is a year-round campaign to help individuals, communities and businesses prepare for and cope with severe weather and its impacts. It includes webpages on heating your home in winter and getting your home winter ready and provides advice on keeping homes at a comfortable temperature, even if this is slightly below 18°C, for healthy adults under the age of 65 and wearing appropriate clothing. Warmer indoor temperatures may be required for vulnerable individuals, including younger children.
To ask Her Majesty’s Government what assessment they have made of the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, published on 9 August; and what policy areas they intend to reassess in response to the finding that global temperatures are rising faster and will have worse consequences than previously predicted.
To ask Her Majesty’s Government what assessment they have made of the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, published on 9 August; and what policy areas they intend to reassess in response to the finding that global temperatures are rising faster and will have worse consequences than previously predicted.
The IPCC report reaffirms the importance of net zero. On 19 October, we launched the net-zero strategy, supporting up to 440,000 jobs and leveraging up to £90 billion in private investment by 2030. Our strategy sets out clear policies and proposals for keeping us on track for our coming carbon budgets and our ambitious NDC.
The IPCC report reaffirms the importance of net zero. On 19 October, we launched the net-zero strategy, supporting up to 440,000 jobs and leveraging up to £90 billion in private investment by 2030. Our strategy sets out clear policies and proposals for keeping us on track for our coming carbon budgets and our ambitious NDC.
The IPCC report reaffirms the importance of net zero. On 19 October, we launched the net-zero strategy, supporting up to 440,000 jobs and leveraging up to £90 billion in private investment by 2030. Our strategy sets out clear policies and proposals for keeping us on track for our coming carbon budgets and our ambitious NDC.
To ask Her Majesty’s Government what assessment they have made of the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, published on 9 August; and what policy areas they intend to reassess in response to the finding that global temperatures are rising faster and will have worse consequences than previously predicted.
Of course I always take the noble Baroness’s comments back to the department for discussion, as she well knows. I think that she is being a little unfair with her comments and I know that she would not want to be. The Chancellor has also announced £3.8 billion-worth of funding for domestic low-carbon heat installation systems, social housing decarbonisation and public sector decarbonisation—we talked about that in our statement a few days ago. It is important to bear in mind that many communities in
the UK—people who live on remote islands et cetera—rely on their air services. Domestic aviation accounts for less than 1% of UK emissions. I also remind the noble Baroness that the Chancellor recently announced considerable funding—something like £180 million—for sustainable aviation fuel.
Of course I always take the noble Baroness’s comments back to the department for discussion, as she well knows. I think that she is being a little unfair with her comments and I know that she would not want to be. The Chancellor has also announced £3.8 billion-worth of funding for domestic low-carbon heat installation systems, social housing decarbonisation and public sector decarbonisation—we talked about that in our statement a few days ago. It is important to bear in mind that many communities in
the UK—people who live on remote islands et cetera—rely on their air services. Domestic aviation accounts for less than 1% of UK emissions. I also remind the noble Baroness that the Chancellor recently announced considerable funding—something like £180 million—for sustainable aviation fuel.
How on earth does that and the Government’s net-zero plan fit with the fact that the Chancellor has just given us a Budget that is so carbon intensive that we should all just give up everything that we are bothering to do? He has reduced the duty on domestic flights, which are the most carbon-intensive form of travel, and he has frozen the fuel-duty escalator for the 12th year. This Treasury does not understand the climate emergency, and the noble Lord, who hears us all here, has to take that back.
Some noble Members opposite have obviously listened to a different Budget from the one that was actually announced. We have £1 billion-worth of funding for carbon capture, usage and storage proposals. The noble Baroness will be aware that, only the other day, we announced the first two clusters in north-west and north-east England. These are world-leading, exciting proposals; no one else in the world is being as ambitious as we are on CCUS.
Some noble Members opposite have obviously listened to a different Budget from the one that was actually announced. We have £1 billion-worth of funding for carbon capture, usage and storage proposals. The noble Baroness will be aware that, only the other day, we announced the first two clusters in north-west and north-east England. These are world-leading, exciting proposals; no one else in the world is being as ambitious as we are on CCUS.
My Lords, working with the devolved Administrations, could the Minister indicate what new policy proposals the Government will bring to COP 26 next week, in respect of financial innovation, green finance and technology, to ensure that a comprehensive scheme of carbon capture is in place to assist with climate change mitigation by the Government’s 2030 target, over and above the Budget today, which was rather limited in this respect?
I refer the noble Lord to the answer that I just gave to the noble Baroness, Lady Jones. Many communities in the United Kingdom rely on air travel for international and internal connectivity. Some parts of our nation are islands, separated by water that trains do not go across. Therefore, it is important to retain connectivity. At the same time, the Chancellor also announced an increase in long-haul air passenger duty.
I refer the noble Lord to the answer that I just gave to the noble Baroness, Lady Jones. Many communities in the United Kingdom rely on air travel for international and internal connectivity. Some parts of our nation are islands, separated by water that trains do not go across. Therefore, it is important to retain connectivity. At the same time, the Chancellor also announced an increase in long-haul air passenger duty.
My Lords, returning to the issue of domestic air passenger duty, does the Minister recognise that short-haul flights are the most carbon-intensive form of travel? Ahead of COP 26, what signal does the Minister believe it sends to announce a cut to domestic air passenger duty while presiding over a record rise in rail fares—one of the least carbon-intensive forms of travel?
I can see that the noble Lord has the House with him on that one. Even putting aside his scepticism about the accuracy of the IPCC report, surely even he would agree that, given the current spike in gas prices, for instance, it is a good
thing to reduce our usage of carbon-intensive fuels. If we can generate more electricity domestically in a renewable and green way, that has to be a good thing because it reduces our reliance on importation.
I can see that the noble Lord has the House with him on that one. Even putting aside his scepticism about the accuracy of the IPCC report, surely even he would agree that, given the current spike in gas prices, for instance, it is a good
thing to reduce our usage of carbon-intensive fuels. If we can generate more electricity domestically in a renewable and green way, that has to be a good thing because it reduces our reliance on importation.
Is not the premise of the noble Baroness’s Question—namely, that global temperatures are rising faster than previously predicted—the reverse of the truth? When the IPCC was established, it forecast that over the ensuing 30 years, now complete, the global temperature would rise by 0.3 degrees per decade. In fact, it has risen by just 0.17 degrees per decade—barely half that amount—and all 39 models used by the IPCC produce estimates higher than reality. Reality is actually quite reassuring.
I am sorry, but I just do not agree with the noble Lord. China is responsible for one of the largest emissions totals in the world. This is very much a global problem and, if we are to make any progress, every nation has to make its contribution, including not only the English-speaking world but also China.
I am sorry, but I just do not agree with the noble Lord. China is responsible for one of the largest emissions totals in the world. This is very much a global problem and, if we are to make any progress, every nation has to make its contribution, including not only the English-speaking world but also China.
My Lords, can we park the constant sideline bickering over China’s CO2 emissions? The discussion pre-COP 26 is unbalanced. We hear endless criticism of China for its 6.5 tonnes per capita emissions record, while there is a deafening silence over the record of the English-speaking world of Australia, Canada and America with their average emissions of 15 tonnes per capita—two and a half times those of China. The China bashing needs to stop. No wonder it may not attend COP 26.
I can reassure my noble and learned friend on that basis. Heat pumps are a mature heating technology and currently the market-leading low-carbon option. I am also delighted to tell him that the largest UK manufacturer, Mitsubishi in Scotland, produces 10,000 of them a year.
I can reassure my noble and learned friend on that basis. Heat pumps are a mature heating technology and currently the market-leading low-carbon option. I am also delighted to tell him that the largest UK manufacturer, Mitsubishi in Scotland, produces 10,000 of them a year.
Can my noble friend say whether any of the pumps that are being suggested to substitute for gas boilers in our homes are yet in a state to be widely used?
The Committee on Climate Change has made it clear that we still need fossil fuels for the transition. I remind the noble Baroness that the UK is responsible for only 1% of worldwide emissions. Yes, we must do our bit, which we are—we are a world-leading power in that respect—but we also need to work on a worldwide basis with other nations, because just stopping emissions in the United Kingdom will not solve the problem.
The Committee on Climate Change has made it clear that we still need fossil fuels for the transition. I remind the noble Baroness that the UK is responsible for only 1% of worldwide emissions. Yes, we must do our bit, which we are—we are a world-leading power in that respect—but we also need to work on a worldwide basis with other nations, because just stopping emissions in the United Kingdom will not solve the problem.
My Lords, the unpredicted intensity of freak events such as the heat dome in the US and Canada has left scientists reeling. Oceanographers are monitoring with concern the anomaly in the Gulf Stream, which helps to regulate our world’s weather, and the cold spot south-east of Greenland is particularly worrying. Does the Minister accept that it is time to stop dicing with the future of our planet, to keep fossil fuels in the ground and therefore to ditch the abominable policy that places a legal duty on our Government to extract every last drop of oil from the North Sea?
No, I do not accept that, because the UK, even after the recent reduction, still has one of the largest international climate finance facilities in the world. Again, on international finance, we are world-leading as well. It was an immense diplomatic effort to get many other nations on board—credit goes to the Prime Minister and to Alok Sharma for managing to do that. We have got the commitment, albeit maybe not as early as we would have hoped for, from 2023.
No, I do not accept that, because the UK, even after the recent reduction, still has one of the largest international climate finance facilities in the world. Again, on international finance, we are world-leading as well. It was an immense diplomatic effort to get many other nations on board—credit goes to the Prime Minister and to Alok Sharma for managing to do that. We have got the commitment, albeit maybe not as early as we would have hoped for, from 2023.
My Lords, the Government had four key objectives for the summit next week in Glasgow. The third of those, and the one that was in many ways among the most important because of the failure to deliver it over the past decade, was the objective on finance and delivering $100 billion per annum of support for those developing countries that would miss out as a result of moving towards
net zero. The Government have admitted this week, in advance of the summit, that that objective is not going to be met. Does the Minister agree that one reason for that might just be the fact that our Government—our country—withdrew on their commitments to the world’s poorest people this year and that that might just have affected the atmosphere around decision-making and the commitments that might then be made by others?
As the noble Lord is probably well aware, under the heat and buildings strategy, another of the Chancellor’s announcements last week, we have allocated hundreds of millions of pounds to the public sector decarbonisation scheme to go with the £1 billion that we have already spent in the past year on the PSDS. I could point the noble Lord to numerous examples across the country, both in London and elsewhere, of excellent schemes where the public sector is using these funds to deliver meaningful carbon reductions.
As the noble Lord is probably well aware, under the heat and buildings strategy, another of the Chancellor’s announcements last week, we have allocated hundreds of millions of pounds to the public sector decarbonisation scheme to go with the £1 billion that we have already spent in the past year on the PSDS. I could point the noble Lord to numerous examples across the country, both in London and elsewhere, of excellent schemes where the public sector is using these funds to deliver meaningful carbon reductions.
What is the target date for the Minister’s own departmental buildings to be carbon neutral?
I think that the noble Lord knows the answer to his own question. A rigorous process was gone through to determine which schemes should get the go-ahead. It is not true that the scheme to which he referred was the most advanced. An independent panel of experts studied all the bids. It is not the case that we are not going ahead with the scheme; it is on the reserve list. It will almost certainly proceed, but just not in the first wave.
I think that the noble Lord knows the answer to his own question. A rigorous process was gone through to determine which schemes should get the go-ahead. It is not true that the scheme to which he referred was the most advanced. An independent panel of experts studied all the bids. It is not the case that we are not going ahead with the scheme; it is on the reserve list. It will almost certainly proceed, but just not in the first wave.
The Minister mentioned the carbon capture and storage facilities that have been approved. He will also be aware that the one that was most ready to go ahead is at St Fergus in Aberdeenshire, but that was not given approval. Why? Are the Government deliberately setting out to upset Scotland and the Scottish Executive?
To ask Her Majesty's Government, further to the Written Answer by Lord Callanan on 6 October (HL8378), what reasons they have for assuming that the set of residuals is stationary.
To ask Her Majesty's Government, further to the Written Answer by Lord Callanan on 6 October (HL8378), what reasons they have for assuming that the set of residuals is stationary.
The assumption of stationarity of the residuals is well established in the peer reviewed literature. Recent examples of this can be found in the following papers:
Kew, Sarah F., Sjoukje Y. Philip, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Gerard van der Schrier, Friederike EL Otto, and Robert Vautard. "The exceptional summer heat wave in southern Europe 2017." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 100, no. 1 (2019): S49-S53.
Yiou, Pascal, Julien Cattiaux, Davide Faranda, Nikolay Kadygrov, Aglae Jézéquel, Philippe Naveau, Aurelien Ribes et al. "Analyses of the Northern European summer heatwave of 2018." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 101, no. 1 (2020): S35-S40.
Leach, Nicholas J., Sihan Li, Sarah Sparrow, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Fraser C. Lott, Antje Weisheimer, and Myles R. Allen. "Anthropogenic influence on the 2018 summer warm spell in Europe: the impact of different spatio-temporal scales." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 101, no. 1 (2020): S41-S46.
Further to the written answer provided on 6 October (HL8377), the plot placed in the Library of the House shows that the GEV distribution is a good fit to the data, which supports the assumption that the distribution of residuals may be adequately modelled as stationary.
To ask Her Majesty's Government, further to the Written Answer by Lord Callanan on 6 October (HL8377), whether they will place a copy of a quantile-quantile plot of a GEV distribution against the distribution of June maximum temperatures at Verkhoyansk during 1926–2020, that includes data from 2020 in particular, in the...
To ask Her Majesty's Government, further to the Written Answer by Lord Callanan on 6 October (HL8377), whether they will place a copy of a quantile-quantile plot of a GEV distribution against the distribution of June maximum temperatures at Verkhoyansk during 1926–2020, that includes data from 2020 in particular, in the...
Further to the written answer provided on 6 October (HL8377), the plot placed in the Library of the House uses data over 1926 – 2019. The 2020 value is not included in the fit of the GEV itself, as is standard scientific practice to avoid biasing the fit by the extreme value of interest. It is well established that the selection of a series in which a very large extreme has occurred means that the return time of this value is likely to be much larger than the length of the dataset itself. This means the time series would give an artificially low view of the return time compared to reality. However, as requested, we have provided an additional quantile-quantile plot that does include the 2020 value in the fit – which we provide subject to these caveats.
To ask Her Majesty's Government, further to the report Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020, published on 15 July, what assessment they have made of whether the report's sample size is large enough to justify the use of a GEV asymptotic approximation when analysing the Verkhoyansk temperatures.
To ask Her Majesty's Government, further to the report Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020, published on 15 July, what assessment they have made of whether the report's sample size is large enough to justify the use of a GEV asymptotic approximation when analysing the Verkhoyansk temperatures.
The report’s sample size is large enough to justify the fitting method used in the analysis as daily temperature data at approximately one-year intervals are not significantly correlated from year to year over continental regions. The maximum daily temperature in a particular month or season in a particular year in a continental region does not serve as a good predictor of the maximum daily temperature in the same month or season in the following year (over and above the long-term effect of climate change) due to natural variability of the climate system. The June-July daily maximum temperature data over timescales from 1 day upwards shows no significant autocorrelation (correlation with itself across a period of time) above 1 week timescales and confirms that the 94 data points used in the report are independent, a sufficiently large number to justify the fitting method used in the analysis. The analysis in the report is based on peer reviewed methodology as set out in a paper by Van der Wiel et al. referenced in the report, which applied this fitting method to a dataset of a comparable size.
To ask Her Majesty's Government, further to the report Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020, published on 15 July, whether they will place a copy of a quantile-quantile plot of a GEV distribution against the distribution of June maximum temperatures at Verkhoyansk during 1926–2020 in the Library of the House.
To ask Her Majesty's Government, further to the report Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020, published on 15 July, whether they will place a copy of a quantile-quantile plot of a GEV distribution against the distribution of June maximum temperatures at Verkhoyansk during 1926–2020 in the Library of the House.
I have arranged for a copy to be placed in the Libraries of the House, along with explanatory text and supporting documents.
To ask Her Majesty's Government, further to the report Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020, published on 15 July, whether the Met Office's analysis assumes that all the months of June during 1926–2020 have the same statistical distribution for their daily temperature maxima at Verkhoyansk; and if so, why.
To ask Her Majesty's Government, further to the report Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020, published on 15 July, whether the Met Office's analysis assumes that all the months of June during 1926–2020 have the same statistical distribution for their daily temperature maxima at Verkhoyansk; and if so, why.
The analysis does not assume that all the months of June during 1926-2020 have the same statistical distribution for the highest of their daily temperature maxima at Verkhoyansk. Instead, the method involves modelling secular changes in the data by a covariance with smoothed Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) and first removing this to create a set of residuals that may be assumed to be stationary and to which a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) fit is then made. This method, based on peer-reviewed literature, is set out in the linked methods document which accompanies the report.