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To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills, what plans the Government has to devolve responsibility for further education Advanced Learning Loans.
To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills, what plans the Government has to devolve responsibility for further education Advanced Learning Loans.
The Government does not have plans to devolve responsibility for 24+ Advanced Learning Loans.
Actually, the UCAS figures published recently show that there are 7,000 fewer British applicants to our universities than there were in 2011. Figures from the Library show that we are wasting and writing off £1 in every £2 that we invest in the higher education system, and our students will not pay back their debts until they are in their 50s. We are educating fewer of our young people and we are wasting more of our money.
The Chancellor forecast that there would be 60,000 extra students this year, yet the UCAS data show that there are only 12,000 extra applicants for this September. Does the Minister want to explain to the House why, if his system is so good, he has just missed his growth target by an incredible 80%?
Actually, the UCAS figures published recently show that there are 7,000 fewer British applicants to our universities than there were in 2011. Figures from the Library show that we are wasting and writing off £1 in every £2 that we invest in the higher education system, and our students will not pay back their debts until they are in their 50s. We are educating fewer of our young people and we are wasting more of our money.
The Chancellor forecast that there would be 60,000 extra students this year, yet the UCAS data show that there are only 12,000 extra applicants for this September. Does the Minister want to explain to the House why, if his system is so good, he has just missed his growth target by an incredible 80%?
That is total nonsense. We have more students than ever before in this country. We have been able to take the cap off the number of students able to go to university, a historic decision that implements the recommendation of the Robins report of over 50 years ago. In terms of putting people off going to university, the big concern of the vice-chancellors is that the Labour party’s proposals would specifically damage the prospects of poorer students and risk the quality of education for all. It is time that the right hon. Gentleman, who has failed to come up with a policy for all this time, said, weeks before the election, what Labour’s policy on higher education is.
To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills, what the value is of student grant over-payments by the Student Loans Company since 2010.
To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills, what the value is of student grant over-payments by the Student Loans Company since 2010.
To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills, what steps his Department has taken to tackle student grant overpayments by the Student Loans Company.
To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills, what steps his Department has taken to tackle student grant overpayments by the Student Loans Company.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies says that the system is going bust, the Select Committee says that the system is going bust, and the Higher Education Commission says that the system is going bust. When will the Minister get the message? Let me ask him about uncapping student numbers this year. We were promised that the ceiling would be removed from places this year, next year and the year after. Earlier in the week, when I asked the Minister how he would pay for that, I received the immortal answer:
“The Department…has indicated that it will not be possible to answer this question within the usual time period.”
Will the Minister tell the House now how he will pay for lifting the ceiling on student numbers this year? If he cannot answer that question, we shall have to conclude that it is a case of “Never mind a long-term plan; he has no plan at all.”
The Institute for Fiscal Studies says that the system is going bust, the Select Committee says that the system is going bust, and the Higher Education Commission says that the system is going bust. When will the Minister get the message? Let me ask him about uncapping student numbers this year. We were promised that the ceiling would be removed from places this year, next year and the year after. Earlier in the week, when I asked the Minister how he would pay for that, I received the immortal answer:
“The Department…has indicated that it will not be possible to answer this question within the usual time period.”
Will the Minister tell the House now how he will pay for lifting the ceiling on student numbers this year? If he cannot answer that question, we shall have to conclude that it is a case of “Never mind a long-term plan; he has no plan at all.”
First of all, the IFS did not say that the system was unsustainable. We have one of the best systems of student finance in the world, and it is achieving the results that we on this side of the House all want to see. I will give the right hon. Gentleman the answer to his question on how the removal of the cap is being paid for. The Treasury has allocated £550 million to pay for it, and it is fully funded. This has enabled us to implement the Robbins report, which was produced 50 years ago and recommended that anyone with the capability and desire for a university education should be able to have one. We are the first Government in 50 years who have been able to implement that.
To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills, what progress the Government has made in its plans for the sale of the student loan book.
To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills, what progress the Government has made in its plans for the sale of the student loan book.
Work is on-going but there are no plans for a sale in this Parliament.
To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills, when his Department plans next to update the RAB charge on student loans.
To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills, when his Department plans next to update the RAB charge on student loans.
The next update of the RAB charge will happen when the Student Loans Company provides the Department with updated loans data. This typically takes place in early autumn each year.
To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills how often his Department calculates the RAB charge on student loans.
To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills how often his Department calculates the RAB charge on student loans.
The RAB charge on student loans is updated when the Office for Budget Responsibility updates its macro economic forecasts, which normally happens two or three times a year. Another update happens annually, when the Student Loans Company provides the Department with updated loans data.
To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills what estimate he has made of retention rates at learning providers with designated course status.
To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills what estimate he has made of retention rates at learning providers with designated course status.
No estimate of retention rates at alternative providers has yet been made. The designation conditions that apply from 2014/15 onwards require alternative providers to provide a data return to the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA). This data once available will help inform BIS decisions on designations and enable the Department to estimate retention rates across the sector.
To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills what his latest estimate is of the RAB charge for (a) student loans after 2012, (b) loans issued to part-time students, (c) loans issued to students in the Affiliated Loan Programme for Students, (d) Advanced-Learner Loans and (e) loans...
To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills what his latest estimate is of the RAB charge for (a) student loans after 2012, (b) loans issued to part-time students, (c) loans issued to students in the Affiliated Loan Programme for Students, (d) Advanced-Learner Loans and (e) loans...
We estimate the RAB charge on student loans issued after 2012 to be around 45%. We estimate the RAB charge for loans issued to part-time students to be around 65%.
We do not estimate a separate RAB charge for students at Alternative Providers.
The 2012 impact assessment on the introduction of 24+ Advanced Learning Loans stated that we anticipated this RAB charge would be 60% of the total loan amount. Now that we are beginning to receive figures on actual
learner numbers, we are reviewing the assumptions within the RAB charge model. An updated estimate of the RAB charge on 24+ Advanced Loans will be published in July 2014 in the BIS Accounts.
We do not estimate a separate RAB charge for non-English EU students.
The actual cost of issuing student loans will be dependent on future macro-economic circumstances, in particular earnings and we will continue to update our forecasts on a regular basis to take account of changes to short-term and long-term macro-economic assumptions.
To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills pursuant to the written statement of 16 June 2014, Official Report, columns 70-1WS, on student support in England, how many of the students who were unable to or chose not to provide adequate evidence of residency were studying at...
To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills pursuant to the written statement of 16 June 2014, Official Report, columns 70-1WS, on student support in England, how many of the students who were unable to or chose not to provide adequate evidence of residency were studying at...
The number of students who were unable to or chose not to provide adequate evidence of residency who were studying at an alternative provider with designated courses and providers at which they were studying, was included in the data set placed in the Libraries of the House to accompany the written ministerial statement on 16 June 2014.
A breakdown of the courses these students are studying is data that is not held in the form requested. I have
asked the Student Loans Company to compile this data and I will place a copy in the Libraries of the House as soon as it is available.
The £65 million figure given in the written ministerial statement is the amount of student support that would have been paid in relation to the 5,548 students deemed to be ineligible following the residency checking exercise. It was calculated using actual awards for students who had approved applications and average award amounts for students whose applications had not reached the approval stage at the time payments were suspended.
To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills what recent estimate his Department has made of the RAB charge for student loans issued after 2012.
To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills what recent estimate his Department has made of the RAB charge for student loans issued after 2012.
We estimate the RAB charge on these loans to be around 45%.
The actual cost of issuing student loans will be dependent on future macro-economic circumstances, in particular earnings and we will continue to update our forecasts on a regular basis to take account of changes to short term and long term macro-economic assumptions.
To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills what projections his Department has made of the future (a) face value and (b) carrying value of the student loan book.
To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills what projections his Department has made of the future (a) face value and (b) carrying value of the student loan book.
The information is as follows:
(a) We estimate the cash, or face, value of ICR student loans to follow approximately this profile going forwards.
| Value
of loan book in real
terms | |
| £
billion | |
| 2014-15 | 70 |
| 2015-16 | 80 |
| 2016-17 | 90 |
| 2017-18 | 100 |
| 2018-19 | 110 |
| 2019-20 | 120 |
| 2020-21 | 130 |
| 2021-22 | 140 |
| 2022-23 | 150 |
| 2023-24 | 160 |
| 2024-25 | 170 |
| 2025-26 | 180 |
| 2026-27 | 190 |
| 2027-28 | 200 |
| 2028-29 | 210 |
| 2029-30 | 220 |
| 2030-31 | 230 |
| 2031-32 | 240 |
| 2032-33 | 250 |
| 2033-34 | 260 |
| 2034-35 | 260 |
| 2035-36 | 270 |
| 2036-37 | 280 |
| 2037-38 | 280 |
| 2038-39 | 290 |
| 2039-40 | 300 |
| 2040-41 | 300 |
| 2041-42 | 310 |
| 2042-43 | 320 |
| 2043-44 | 320 |
| 2044-45 | 330 |
| 2045-46 | 330 |
| 2046-47 | 330 |
| 2047-48 | 330 |
| 2048-49 | 330 |
| 2049-50 | 330 |
| Value
of loan book in nominal
terms | |
| £
billion | |
| 2014-15 | 70 |
| 2015-16 | 80 |
| 2016-17 | 100 |
| 2017-18 | 110 |
| 2018-19 | 130 |
| 2019-20 | 150 |
| 2020-21 | 170 |
| 2021-22 | 190 |
| 2022-23 | 210 |
| 2023-24 | 230 |
| 2024-25 | 250 |
| 2025-26 | 270 |
| 2026-27 | 300 |
| 2027-28 | 320 |
| 2028-29 | 350 |
| 2029-30 | 380 |
| 2030-31 | 410 |
| 2031-32 | 440 |
| 2032-33 | 470 |
| 2033-34 | 500 |
| 2034-35 | 530 |
| 2035-36 | 570 |
| 2036-37 | 600 |
| 2037-38 | 640 |
| 2038-39 | 670 |
| 2039-40 | 710 |
| 2040-41 | 750 |
| 2041-42 | 790 |
| 2042-43 | 830 |
| 2043-44 | 870 |
| 2044-45 | 920 |
| 2045-46 | 960 |
| 2046-47 | 1,000 |
| 2047-48 | 1,030 |
| 2048-49 | 1,070 |
| 2049-50 | 1,100 |
These estimates assume that fees will increase in line with inflation from 2016 onwards. These forecasts also take account of the freeing up of student number controls in the autumn statement, increases in loan take-up rates, demographic changes over time and updated earnings modelling.
(b) We estimate the current carrying value of the student loan book, which is used in the BIS accounts. However, we do not forecast the future carrying value of the loan book, as this is not required for the purposes of accounting or budgeting. Our estimate of the carrying value for loans when they are issued is based on the RAB charge, which we currently estimate is around 45%.
To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills what recent estimate he has made of the cash value of the student loan book in each year to 2050 (a) before and (b) after sales of student loans.
To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills what recent estimate he has made of the cash value of the student loan book in each year to 2050 (a) before and (b) after sales of student loans.
The information is as follows:
(a) We estimate the cash value of ICR student loans to follow approximately this profile going forwards:
| Value
of loan book in real
terms | |
| £
billion | |
| 2014-15 | 70 |
| 2015-16 | 80 |
| 2016-17 | 90 |
| 2017-18 | 100 |
| 2018-19 | 110 |
| 2019-20 | 120 |
| 2020-21 | 130 |
| 2021-22 | 140 |
| 2022-23 | 150 |
| 2023-24 | 160 |
| 2024-25 | 170 |
| 2025-26 | 180 |
| 2026-27 | 190 |
| 2027-28 | 200 |
| 2028-29 | 210 |
| 2029-30 | 220 |
| 2030-31 | 230 |
| 2031-32 | 240 |
| 2032-33 | 250 |
| 2033-34 | 260 |
| 2034-35 | 260 |
| 2035-36 | 270 |
| 2036-37 | 280 |
| 2037-38 | 280 |
| 2038-39 | 290 |
| 2039-40 | 300 |
| 2040-41 | 300 |
| 2041-42 | 310 |
| 2042-43 | 320 |
| 2043-44 | 320 |
| 2044-45 | 330 |
| 2045-46 | 330 |
| 2046-47 | 330 |
| 2047-48 | 330 |
| 2048-49 | 330 |
| 2049-50 | 330 |
| Value
of loan book in nominal
terms | |
| £
billion | |
| 2014-15 | 70 |
| 2015-16 | 80 |
| 2016-17 | 100 |
| 2017-18 | 110 |
| 2018-19 | 130 |
| 2019-20 | 150 |
| 2020-21 | 170 |
| 2021-22 | 190 |
| 2022-23 | 210 |
| 2023-24 | 230 |
| 2024-25 | 250 |
| 2025-26 | 270 |
| 2026-27 | 300 |
| 2027-28 | 320 |
| 2028-29 | 350 |
| 2029-30 | 380 |
| 2030-31 | 410 |
| 2031-32 | 440 |
| 2032-33 | 470 |
| 2033-34 | 500 |
| 2034-35 | 530 |
| 2035-36 | 570 |
| 2036-37 | 600 |
| 2037-38 | 640 |
| 2038-39 | 670 |
| 2039-40 | 710 |
| 2040-41 | 750 |
| 2041-42 | 790 |
| 2042-43 | 830 |
| 2043-44 | 870 |
| 2044-45 | 920 |
| 2045-46 | 960 |
| 2046-47 | 1,000 |
| 2047-48 | 1,030 |
| 2048-49 | 1,070 |
| 2049-50 | 1,100 |
These estimates assume that fees will increase in line with inflation from 2016 onwards. These forecasts also take account of the freeing up of student number controls in the autumn statement, increases in loan take-up rates, demographic changes over time and updated earnings modelling.
(b) The Government has a stated aim to sell the pre-2012 loan book. However, the exact programme of sales has yet to be determined. Consequently, it is not possible to estimate the yearly value of the student loan book after these sales have taken place.
To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills with reference to page 204 of HM Treasury's Central Government and Supply Estimates 2013-14, February 2014, HC 1006, if he will provide a breakdown of the £15.877 million supplementary estimate for the increase in costs of student loan debt...
To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills with reference to page 204 of HM Treasury's Central Government and Supply Estimates 2013-14, February 2014, HC 1006, if he will provide a breakdown of the £15.877 million supplementary estimate for the increase in costs of student loan debt...
The Supplementary Estimate adjustment for the student loan debt sale relates to the Government subsidising the sale of student loans in 1998 and 1999. The adjustment reflects changes to the value of the Government liability following annual debt sale subsidy payments, including adjustments for cancelled loans.
The subsidy will continue until all the loans are extinguished which is expected to be no earlier than 2028, which is the 30 year duration of the first debt sale agreement.
Further details of the liability are available in the BIS Annual Report and Accounts.
To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills with reference to page 201 of HM Treasury’s Central Government Supply Estimates 2013-14, Supplementary Estimates and New Estimates, February 2014, HC 1006, what factors led to the need for the revised forecast that gave rise to the reserve claim...
To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills with reference to page 201 of HM Treasury’s Central Government Supply Estimates 2013-14, Supplementary Estimates and New Estimates, February 2014, HC 1006, what factors led to the need for the revised forecast that gave rise to the reserve claim...
The supplementary estimates claim covered additional impairment of up to £3.2 billion resulting from improvements made to the student loans repayment model. Significant changes were made to the model after main estimates 2013-14 which enabled the Department to make better use of historical earnings data, which in turn produced greater accuracy in modelling borrowers’ earnings paths. These changes, in addition to greater use of Student Loans Company data to support the model, have enabled us to address the historic over-forecasting of repayments.
The claim also included a contingency of £1.4 billion for any change to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) economic forecasts between December 2013 and March 2014. If unusually low interest rates were forecast to continue for longer than expected, this would result in a cost to Government as future cash flows would be lower. Any changes to forecasts of earnings growth and RPI would also mean that lower loan repayments would be likely in future years The Department will continue to take account the possibility that the OBR will change its forecasts in March of future years.
Non-cash pressures of £0.4 billion from higher than forecast growth in the take-up of loans and pre-agreed claims of £0.7 billion for higher impairment charges identified at SR13 were also included.
The Department will continue to update its modelling of student loan repayments in the light of the latest data and forecasts, and methodological innovation.
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what his Department's target impairment for student loans is; how that level was decided on; when that target was introduced; what changes there have been to that target since its introduction; and if he will publish regular information on the level of that...
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what his Department's target impairment for student loans is; how that level was decided on; when that target was introduced; what changes there have been to that target since its introduction; and if he will publish regular information on the level of that...
I am replying on behalf of the Department of Business, Innovation and Skills.
I refer the right hon. Member to the answer I gave on 7 April 2014, Official Report, column 11W.
To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills what he expects the RAB charge to be for extra students entering higher education when the present cap on student numbers is removed in 2014-15.
To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills what he expects the RAB charge to be for extra students entering higher education when the present cap on student numbers is removed in 2014-15.
We produce a single RAB charge that is an estimate of the overall cost of issuing loans to students. This charge is currently around 45% for full time students. Similarly, a single RAB charge will be applied to all students entering higher education in 2014-15.
To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills if he will break down by component elements the increase in the RAB charge from 33 per cent to 45 per cent.
To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills if he will break down by component elements the increase in the RAB charge from 33 per cent to 45 per cent.
The increase in the RAB charge has been due to:
Macroeconomic effects-earnings growth has been lower than expected since the £21,000 threshold was set making it more generous in real terms than was expected at the time it was set; and
Modelling changes-we have made methodological improvements to our modelling of individual borrower's earnings over time. We have done this through a new approach that takes greater account of an individual's past earnings and of Student Loans Company data on actual loan repayments.
To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills what estimate he has made of the proportion of student loans issued under the (a) pre-2012 and (b) new funding system that will be fully written off.
To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills what estimate he has made of the proportion of student loans issued under the (a) pre-2012 and (b) new funding system that will be fully written off.
Our model is designed to estimate aggregate repayments across the full range of borrowers. It does not estimate outcomes at the individual level, such as the probability of an individual’s loan balance being fully written off.
However, Student Loans Company data for early pre-2012 cohorts show that around 10% of the cohorts up to 2005 have made no repayments since taking out their loans.