The Met Office published its first experimental decadal forecast in 2007 and has issued updates looking five to ten years ahead on its web site since December 2009; no update to the initialised forecast was supplied to DECC in 2008. These forecasts are not intended to predict a particular year's global temperature as year-to-year variations in global temperature are dominated by the effects of the El Nino Southern Oscillation, which is not predictable more than a year ahead. Instead, they aim to forecast slow fluctuations in the climate system over the next few years.

Nevertheless, values for individual years can be extracted and the very first forecast, made in 2007, suggested that 2013 would likely be 0.53 to 0.89 degrees C (90% confidence) warmer than the 1961 to 1990 average. No equivalent estimate is currently available for 2018 as the latest five-year forecast, issued in December 2012, is for the period 2013 to 2017¹. However, this shows that the Earth is expected to maintain the record warmth that has been observed over the last decade, with the possibility that new record global temperatures may be reached in the next five years.

Met Office five-year forecasts are assessed once the verifying observations are available.¹

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/decadal-forecasting

The Met Office published its first experimental decadal forecast in 2007 and has issued updates looking five to ten years ahead on its web site since December 2009; no update to the initialised forecast was supplied to DECC in 2008. These forecasts are not intended to predict a particular year's global temperature as year-to-year variations in global temperature are dominated by the effects of the El Nino Southern Oscillation, which is not predictable more than a year ahead. Instead, they aim to forecast slow fluctuations in the climate system over the next few years.

Nevertheless, values for individual years can be extracted and the very first forecast, made in 2007, suggested that 2013 would likely be 0.53 to 0.89 degrees C (90% confidence) warmer than the 1961 to 1990 average. No equivalent estimate is currently available for 2018 as the latest five-year forecast, issued in December 2012, is for the period 2013 to 2017¹. However, this shows that the Earth is expected to maintain the record warmth that has been observed over the last decade, with the possibility that new record global temperatures may be reached in the next five years.

Met Office five-year forecasts are assessed once the verifying observations are available.¹

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/decadal-forecasting

The world has warmed by about 0.8 degrees Celsius since the 19th century¹. This warming was reported to be statistically significant by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in Section 3.2 of its Fourth Assessment Working Group I Report.

Met Office (2013). The recent pause in global warming (1); What do observations of the climate system tell us?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/e/f/Paper1_Observing_changes_in_the_climate_system.PDF

The Met Office already makes such information publicly available. A table of global average near-surface annual temperatures, including each year since 1997, is available on the Met Office website at:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/monitoring/climate/surface-temperature