NHS England has advised that the Horsham and Mid Sussex Clinical Commissioning Group (CCG) is using the predicted population data from the developing estates strategy to model health services to meet the increased demand. NHS England further advises that it is working closely with the CCG to develop an action plan for local primary care services in East Grinstead.

NHS England is responsible for commissioning of primary care in Mid Sussex. NHS England advises that only one general practitioner practice in Grinstead has closed its list to new patients and two others have applied to close their lists but are still currently being allocated patients by NHS England.

If there is a successful planning application for a new housing estate then NHS England or the delegated clinical commissioning group will consider the availability and accessibility of services from nearby general practitioners’ practices and if it is deemed insufficient or inadequate then the commissioner would go out to tender for a new service.

The information requested falls within the responsibility of the UK Statistics Authority. I have asked the authority to reply.

Letter from Glen Watson:

As Director General for the Office for National Statistics I have been asked to reply to your Parliamentary Question asking the Minister for the Cabinet Office what estimate he has made of the population in (a) 2025 and (b) 2050 of those built-up areas showing a population of 100,000 or more in the 2011 Census. [196960]

Estimates of future population are available as population projections but ONS does not produce them for built up areas.

Population projections are available for local authorities in England which usually project forward for a 25 year horizon. However, the most recent set of projections are based on the population in 2011 are only available to 2021. These can be found at:

www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/snpp/sub-national-population-projections/Interim-2011-based/index.html

Updated population projections, based on more recent information and covering a period to 2037, will be published on the 29 May.

The information requested falls within the responsibility of the UK Statistics Authority. I have asked the authority to reply.

Letter from Glen Watson, dated October 2012:

As Director General for the Office for National Statistics I have been asked to reply to your Parliamentary Question asking the Minister for the Cabinet Office by what proportion the over 85 population in (a) Mid Sussex and (b) West Sussex is forecast to rise over the next 20 years. [123531]

Estimates of future population are available as population projections. The most recent sub national population projections are based on mid-year population estimates for 2011 but only project the population growth for 10 years to 2021, therefore the

2010-based sub national projections have been used to respond to your Parliamentary Question. These projections do not take account of results of the 2011 Census.

Sub national population projections are not forecasts and do not attempt to predict the impact of future government policies, changing economic circumstances or the capacity of an area to accommodate a change in population. They provide an indication of the future size and age structure of the population if recent demographic trends continued.

Between mid-2012 and mid-2032, the over 85 population in Mid Sussex is, rounded to the nearest 100, projected to rise from 3,000 to 6,800, an increase of 122 percent. Looking at this as a proportion of the total population, the over 85 population is projected to increase by approximately two percentage points from 2.2 to 4.4 per cent.

Between mid-2012 and mid-2032, the over 85 population in West Sussex, rounded to the nearest 100, is projected to rise from 23,500 to 47,000, an increase of 101 percent. Looking at this as a proportion of the total population, the over 85 population is projected to increase by approximately two percentage points from 2.9 to 5.0 per cent.

The over 85 age group has been defined as those aged 86 and over.

The information requested falls within the responsibility of the UK Statistics Authority. I have asked the authority to reply.

Letter from Glen Watson, dated October 2012:

As Director General for the Office for National Statistics, I have been asked to reply to your recent Parliamentary Question asking what proportion of the increase in the UK population between 2001 and 2011, as reported in the recent census, was due to net foreign immigration in that period plus (a) the children subsequently born in the UK to those immigrants and (b) all children born in the UK in the same period to all foreign born mothers (123518).

The exact information requested, on the proportion of the increase in the UK population between 2001 and 2011 that was due to net foreign immigration, is not available. While ONS has released the first set of census estimates for England and Wales, UK estimates will not be available until all of the census offices have published the necessary data. At time of writing, this is expected to be December 2012.

The recent census release identified that approximately 56 per cent of the increase in the population of England and Wales between 2001 and 2011 was due to net migration. However, this is only a proxy for net foreign immigration as it will include both UK born migrants and moves between England and Wales and the other UK constituent countries.

ONS is due to revise population estimates for England and Wales for the period between 2001 and 2011 to reflect the results of the 2011 Census. This will include an estimate of the population change that is due to net international migration, which is a better proxy for net foreign immigration as it will not include moves made between England and Wales and the other UK countries. However, these estimates will not be available until December 2012.

During the 10-year period from 2001 to 2010 inclusive, there were 1,411,519 live births in England and Wales to mothers born outside the UK (21.4 per cent of all live births in England and Wales during this period). Figures for live births where the mother is non-UK born are compiled from birth registration data. Information on country of birth of mothers is provided by the informant at registration.

It is not possible to identify the number of children subsequently born in the UK to immigrants who arrived between 2001 and 2010 as information on year of mothers' arrival in the UK is not collected at birth registration. This means that it is not possible to distinguish between (i) births to mothers who were born outside the UK and migrated to the UK between 2001 and 2010 and (ii) births to mothers born outside the UK who migrated to the UK prior to 2001.

The information requested falls within the responsibility of the UK Statistics Authority. I have asked the authority to reply.

Letter from Stephen Penneck, dated June 2012:

As Director General for the Office for National Statistics, I have been asked to reply to your recent Parliamentary Question to the Minister for the Cabinet Office, asking what he estimates the population of the United Kingdom will be in 2050.

The most recent national population projections, based on the resident population at the middle of 2010, were published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 26 October 2011. The projected total population for the UK in 2050 is 78.4 million people.

Assumptions of future mortality, fertility and migration underlying national population projections are demographic trend based. The projections become increasingly uncertain the further they are carried forward. To help understand the uncertainty, a number variant projections based on alternative assumptions are also produced. National population projections are not forecasts and do not attempt to predict the impact that factors such as future government policies or changing economic circumstances might have on the population.