Lords motion to take note of the Spring Forecast Statement. Agreed to on question.

Lords motion to take note of the Spring Forecast Statement. Agreed to on question.

My Lords, it is a privilege to open this debate on the spring forecast and the Second Reading of the finance Bill. I very much look forward to the valedictory speech from the noble Lord, Lord St John of Bletso.

On taking office, this Government inherited three major crises: a crisis...

My Lords, it is a privilege to open this debate on the spring forecast and the Second Reading of the finance Bill. I very much look forward to the valedictory speech from the noble Lord, Lord St John of Bletso.

On taking office, this Government inherited three major crises: a crisis...

My Lords, my first point is that the world economic situation now is very different from that existing at the time of the Spring Statement, let alone that in place when the finance Bill was introduced—different and significantly worse. The Middle East war has overturned economic expectations, especially optimistic ones.

A...

My Lords, my first point is that the world economic situation now is very different from that existing at the time of the Spring Statement, let alone that in place when the finance Bill was introduced—different and significantly worse. The Middle East war has overturned economic expectations, especially optimistic ones.

A...

What an excellent speech by the noble Lord, Lord St John of Bletso, the 22nd Baron St John of Bletso—a title that has existed for 460 years. I declare my interest: in the nearly 20 years that I have been privileged to be a Member here, my noble friend Lord...

What an excellent speech by the noble Lord, Lord St John of Bletso, the 22nd Baron St John of Bletso—a title that has existed for 460 years. I declare my interest: in the nearly 20 years that I have been privileged to be a Member here, my noble friend Lord...

Hear, hear!

Hear, hear!

The Statement on 3 March focused primarily on presenting the latest OBR forecasts, rather than announcing new policy measures. It forecast growth of about 1.1%, which is very low. It forecast inflation to fall from 3.4% to 2.3% this year. It forecast unemployment to rise to 5.3%, and net migration—which...

The Statement on 3 March focused primarily on presenting the latest OBR forecasts, rather than announcing new policy measures. It forecast growth of about 1.1%, which is very low. It forecast inflation to fall from 3.4% to 2.3% this year. It forecast unemployment to rise to 5.3%, and net migration—which...

My Lords, I echo the tribute from the noble Lord, Lord Bilimoria, to the noble Lord, Lord St John of Bletso, and pay tribute to his wonderful public service to this House over many years.

This year, I had the great privilege of chairing a Select Committee for the first time,...

My Lords, I echo the tribute from the noble Lord, Lord Bilimoria, to the noble Lord, Lord St John of Bletso, and pay tribute to his wonderful public service to this House over many years.

This year, I had the great privilege of chairing a Select Committee for the first time,...

My Lords, I join with others in saying how sad it is to say goodbye to the noble Lord, Lord St John of Bletso. He will be much missed, particularly for his contributions on Africa and the global south, and for his contributions to debate, as his powerful speech showed...

My Lords, I join with others in saying how sad it is to say goodbye to the noble Lord, Lord St John of Bletso. He will be much missed, particularly for his contributions on Africa and the global south, and for his contributions to debate, as his powerful speech showed...

My Lords, following a distinguished former Chancellor of the Exchequer and a brilliant speech from the noble Lord, St John of Bletso, I rise with some anxiety to make a speech on the economy. Nevertheless, I want to try to bring a note of optimism into our deliberations, because optimism...

My Lords, following a distinguished former Chancellor of the Exchequer and a brilliant speech from the noble Lord, St John of Bletso, I rise with some anxiety to make a speech on the economy. Nevertheless, I want to try to bring a note of optimism into our deliberations, because optimism...

My Lords, I shall certainly miss the noble Lord, Lord St John of Bletso, around the place. With his economic and business acuity, he will be sorely missed—a real person in every sense.

Today I shall address only the so-called spring forecast Statement. With respect, I cannot ever recall such an...

My Lords, I shall certainly miss the noble Lord, Lord St John of Bletso, around the place. With his economic and business acuity, he will be sorely missed—a real person in every sense.

Today I shall address only the so-called spring forecast Statement. With respect, I cannot ever recall such an...

My Lords, as many noble Lords have pointed out, we have been living in uncertain times, made considerably more uncertain in the last three weeks by the Iran war. Against that, the Spring Statement is creditable. Growth is returning, and that is the Government’s central mission. Inflation and borrowing are...

My Lords, as many noble Lords have pointed out, we have been living in uncertain times, made considerably more uncertain in the last three weeks by the Iran war. Against that, the Spring Statement is creditable. Growth is returning, and that is the Government’s central mission. Inflation and borrowing are...

My Lords, I enjoyed the speech from the noble Lord, Lord St John, and I regret that I arrived in this place too late to hear more of his Lordship’s wisdom. I wish him every success with his new ventures.

The OBR is set up to fail. The Treasury asks it...

My Lords, I enjoyed the speech from the noble Lord, Lord St John, and I regret that I arrived in this place too late to hear more of his Lordship’s wisdom. I wish him every success with his new ventures.

The OBR is set up to fail. The Treasury asks it...

My Lords, the Economist magazine got it right about the Chancellor’s speech on the spring forecast. It said that the Chancellor

“did not announce a single major policy decision that will help Britain break out of its malaise”.

The malaise is the OBR’s bleak forecasts for economic growth over the coming years—...

My Lords, the Economist magazine got it right about the Chancellor’s speech on the spring forecast. It said that the Chancellor

“did not announce a single major policy decision that will help Britain break out of its malaise”.

The malaise is the OBR’s bleak forecasts for economic growth over the coming years—...

My Lords, I am very grateful to my noble friend the Minister for his characteristically clear and cogent introduction to today’s debate on the Spring Statement and the finance Bill, timed also to allow us to take into account the Chancellor’s Mais Lecture, delivered early this afternoon. I very much...

My Lords, I am very grateful to my noble friend the Minister for his characteristically clear and cogent introduction to today’s debate on the Spring Statement and the finance Bill, timed also to allow us to take into account the Chancellor’s Mais Lecture, delivered early this afternoon. I very much...

My Lords, I too congratulate the noble Lord, Lord St John of Bletso, on his long, stylish and meaningful service to this House. I wish him well in the future, be he in Africa or anywhere else in the world.

I stand before your Lordships as a member of the Finance...

My Lords, I too congratulate the noble Lord, Lord St John of Bletso, on his long, stylish and meaningful service to this House. I wish him well in the future, be he in Africa or anywhere else in the world.

I stand before your Lordships as a member of the Finance...

My Lords, it is an honour to follow the noble Baroness, Lady Fairhead. I also speak as a member of the Finance Bill Sub-Committee of the Economic Affairs Committee—a lot of words on a business card. It was a delight to serve on it again, and I congratulate our chairman,...

My Lords, it is an honour to follow the noble Baroness, Lady Fairhead. I also speak as a member of the Finance Bill Sub-Committee of the Economic Affairs Committee—a lot of words on a business card. It was a delight to serve on it again, and I congratulate our chairman,...

My Lords, I begin by sharing my tribute to the noble Lord, Lord St John of Bletso. I am a newcomer, so I have not had the benefit of his expertise on southern Africa. I am sorry about that

because it is a region I am very optimistic about. I...

My Lords, I begin by sharing my tribute to the noble Lord, Lord St John of Bletso. I am a newcomer, so I have not had the benefit of his expertise on southern Africa. I am sorry about that

because it is a region I am very optimistic about. I...

My Lords, the Spring Statement has been overshadowed by the escalating conflict in the Middle East. There is

“significant chance that the new forecast is already out of date before the ink has dried”,

warned Andrew Wishart of Berenberg Bank. However, even before this, the UK economic forecasts were looking grim. Growth...

My Lords, the Spring Statement has been overshadowed by the escalating conflict in the Middle East. There is

“significant chance that the new forecast is already out of date before the ink has dried”,

warned Andrew Wishart of Berenberg Bank. However, even before this, the UK economic forecasts were looking grim. Growth...

My Lords, I shall focus on the choice we face as a country between investing in economic inactivity versus investing in work, a theme my noble friend Lord Northbrook spoke about. The Work and Pensions Secretary announced yesterday a £1 billion investment to incentivise employers to hire young people from...

My Lords, I shall focus on the choice we face as a country between investing in economic inactivity versus investing in work, a theme my noble friend Lord Northbrook spoke about. The Work and Pensions Secretary announced yesterday a £1 billion investment to incentivise employers to hire young people from...

I start by paying tribute to the noble Lord, Lord St John of Bletso. I do not know whether he will mind me mentioning that we recently discovered that we share one thing in common—there may be others—which is that we are both stammerers. He is wonderful testimony to the...

I start by paying tribute to the noble Lord, Lord St John of Bletso. I do not know whether he will mind me mentioning that we recently discovered that we share one thing in common—there may be others—which is that we are both stammerers. He is wonderful testimony to the...

Leigh of Hurley.

Leigh of Hurley.

Yes, the noble Lord, Lord Leigh of Hurley. That was a blind spot: I am sorry. I always listen with great interest to what the noble Lord says. We take part in many of the same debates. I did not really understand his suggestion that widows would be the main...

Yes, the noble Lord, Lord Leigh of Hurley. That was a blind spot: I am sorry. I always listen with great interest to what the noble Lord says. We take part in many of the same debates. I did not really understand his suggestion that widows would be the main...

As the noble Lord has invited me to intervene, I will. The point is that women live longer than men and it is much more likely that, if a person passes away, it will be the man leaving the woman to be the PR and to pay the tax.

As the noble Lord has invited me to intervene, I will. The point is that women live longer than men and it is much more likely that, if a person passes away, it will be the man leaving the woman to be the PR and to pay the tax.

Sure, but that is true only if the widow does not get a pension. My whole point is that that arrangement should be providing pensions and not providing capital sums to the widow. If the deceased does not want to place that burden on their widow—or widower: it works both...

Sure, but that is true only if the widow does not get a pension. My whole point is that that arrangement should be providing pensions and not providing capital sums to the widow. If the deceased does not want to place that burden on their widow—or widower: it works both...

I pay tribute to the noble Lord, Lord Davies, and to the noble Lord, Lord St John of Bletso, who made an excellent valedictory speech. I had no idea that both of them had a stammer. I might mention that Nye Bevan had a stammer as well. That is a...

I pay tribute to the noble Lord, Lord Davies, and to the noble Lord, Lord St John of Bletso, who made an excellent valedictory speech. I had no idea that both of them had a stammer. I might mention that Nye Bevan had a stammer as well. That is a...

My Lords, the eloquent speech this evening by the noble Lord, Lord St John, reminded me yet again of what this House is losing by chucking out its hereditary Peers.

I want to take advantage of the slightly longer time allowed to Back-Benchers to make a technical point about language, before...

My Lords, the eloquent speech this evening by the noble Lord, Lord St John, reminded me yet again of what this House is losing by chucking out its hereditary Peers.

I want to take advantage of the slightly longer time allowed to Back-Benchers to make a technical point about language, before...

My Lords, the key takeaway from the Chancellor’s speech is that the great plan for growth has now been supplanted by the more modest objective of stability. However, there are a couple of claims in the speech that need challenging.

The Chancellor claims that inflation is down but does not provide...

My Lords, the key takeaway from the Chancellor’s speech is that the great plan for growth has now been supplanted by the more modest objective of stability. However, there are a couple of claims in the speech that need challenging.

The Chancellor claims that inflation is down but does not provide...

Well, here we are again, my Lords; another spring, another Statement. In autumn 2024, the OBR forecast that 2025 GDP growth would be 2%. The reality ended up at 1.3%. Never mind: in spring 2025, the OBR forecast 2026 GDP growth would be 1.9%. In autumn 2025, it downgraded that...

Well, here we are again, my Lords; another spring, another Statement. In autumn 2024, the OBR forecast that 2025 GDP growth would be 2%. The reality ended up at 1.3%. Never mind: in spring 2025, the OBR forecast 2026 GDP growth would be 1.9%. In autumn 2025, it downgraded that...

My Lords, what a heroic task this Chamber has undertaken in us having seven minutes to explore 560 pages of the Finance (No. 2) Bill, 481 pages of Explanatory Notes, 131 pages of related

OBR analysis and 152 pages of Treasury statements and related policies. On top of that, there...

My Lords, what a heroic task this Chamber has undertaken in us having seven minutes to explore 560 pages of the Finance (No. 2) Bill, 481 pages of Explanatory Notes, 131 pages of related

OBR analysis and 152 pages of Treasury statements and related policies. On top of that, there...

My Lords, I think the Minister ought to get my noble friend Lord Sikka a job in HMRC. I have some connections there too. However, I start by paying great tribute to my good friend and associate, the noble Lord, Lord St John, with whom I have spent many hours...

My Lords, I think the Minister ought to get my noble friend Lord Sikka a job in HMRC. I have some connections there too. However, I start by paying great tribute to my good friend and associate, the noble Lord, Lord St John, with whom I have spent many hours...

My Lords, let us examine the Chancellor’s Statement from a slightly different perspective. We are told that welfare spending will increase by roughly £18 billion. If I understand the figures correctly, that is approximately 0.63% of GDP. We need always to think about things relatively, and 0.63% of GDP is...

My Lords, let us examine the Chancellor’s Statement from a slightly different perspective. We are told that welfare spending will increase by roughly £18 billion. If I understand the figures correctly, that is approximately 0.63% of GDP. We need always to think about things relatively, and 0.63% of GDP is...

My Lords, I join the tributes to the noble Lord, Lord St John of Bletso. We do not often get to speak in the same debate, so I am delighted that he could not speak in the space debate and has joined us today. His speech was both gracious and...

My Lords, I join the tributes to the noble Lord, Lord St John of Bletso. We do not often get to speak in the same debate, so I am delighted that he could not speak in the space debate and has joined us today. His speech was both gracious and...

My Lords, I thank the Minister for his patience and care in listening to this debate. I declare my interest as a director at South Molton Street Capital. I thank the noble Lord, Lord St John, for speaking in our debate this evening, and for his work for this House...

My Lords, I thank the Minister for his patience and care in listening to this debate. I declare my interest as a director at South Molton Street Capital. I thank the noble Lord, Lord St John, for speaking in our debate this evening, and for his work for this House...

My Lords, it is a pleasure to close this debate on the spring forecast and the Second Reading of the Finance (No. 2) Bill. I am grateful to all noble Lords for their contributions, which I have enjoyed listening to. I pay tribute to the noble Lord, Lord St John...

My Lords, it is a pleasure to close this debate on the spring forecast and the Second Reading of the Finance (No. 2) Bill. I am grateful to all noble Lords for their contributions, which I have enjoyed listening to. I pay tribute to the noble Lord, Lord St John...

My Lords, it is with a mix of sadness and excitement that I address your Lordships’ House this last time. The sadness is because I shall miss participating in debates, particularly on Africa, and especially participating in the Select Committee work of your Lordships’ House and the APPG work. It...

My Lords, it is with a mix of sadness and excitement that I address your Lordships’ House this last time. The sadness is because I shall miss participating in debates, particularly on Africa, and especially participating in the Select Committee work of your Lordships’ House and the APPG work. It...

My Lords, this year’s spring forecast is not just an economic and accounting exercise; it provides clarity, alongside the latest forecasts from the OBR. It is encouraging to see the forecasts of steady growth and falling inflation, resulting in the UK having the fastest growth of any G7 country in...

My Lords, this year’s spring forecast is not just an economic and accounting exercise; it provides clarity, alongside the latest forecasts from the OBR. It is encouraging to see the forecasts of steady growth and falling inflation, resulting in the UK having the fastest growth of any G7 country in...

Statement on the Spring Statement.

Statement on the Spring Statement.

This Government have the right economic plan for our country, a plan that is—[Interruption.]

This Government have the right economic plan for our country, a plan that is—[Interruption.]

A plan that is even more important in a world that has become yet more uncertain in the last few days. With unfolding conflict in Iran and the middle east, it is incumbent on me and on this Government to chart a course through that uncertainty, to secure our economy...

A plan that is even more important in a world that has become yet more uncertain in the last few days. With unfolding conflict in Iran and the middle east, it is incumbent on me and on this Government to chart a course through that uncertainty, to secure our economy...

Is that it? What utter complacency—a Chancellor in denial. She speaks of stability, but what planet is she on? She has lurched from putting up taxes to destroying growth and headroom, and then to coming back and putting up more taxes, with more growth destroyed. Round and round we go,...

Is that it? What utter complacency—a Chancellor in denial. She speaks of stability, but what planet is she on? She has lurched from putting up taxes to destroying growth and headroom, and then to coming back and putting up more taxes, with more growth destroyed. Round and round we go,...

Thank you, Mr Speaker; they just do not like the truth—that is the truth of it.

As our economy bleeds out, what does the right hon. Lady do? She comes to this House with nothing to say and with no plan—unless, of course, doing nothing is a cunning plan to avoid...

Thank you, Mr Speaker; they just do not like the truth—that is the truth of it.

As our economy bleeds out, what does the right hon. Lady do? She comes to this House with nothing to say and with no plan—unless, of course, doing nothing is a cunning plan to avoid...

More!

More!

No, they do not like it, Mr Speaker; they do not like the truth.

This is not a spring statement. It is a surrender statement. The Chancellor has the temerity to suggest that she is creating the conditions for renewed growth. She is rather like a dodgy estate agent standing in...

No, they do not like it, Mr Speaker; they do not like the truth.

This is not a spring statement. It is a surrender statement. The Chancellor has the temerity to suggest that she is creating the conditions for renewed growth. She is rather like a dodgy estate agent standing in...

Thank you, Mr Speaker.

The right hon. Lady says the cost of borrowing is coming down, but does she not know that the cost of borrowing in this country has been the highest in the G7 —[Interruption.]

Thank you, Mr Speaker.

The right hon. Lady says the cost of borrowing is coming down, but does she not know that the cost of borrowing in this country has been the highest in the G7 —[Interruption.]

Our borrowing is even higher than Greece’s. Indeed, if debt were a Department, it would be the third largest spending Department in Whitehall. That is money not going on the people’s priorities, but simply being flushed down the drain. The right hon. Lady puts great store in the latest forecasts...

Our borrowing is even higher than Greece’s. Indeed, if debt were a Department, it would be the third largest spending Department in Whitehall. That is money not going on the people’s priorities, but simply being flushed down the drain. The right hon. Lady puts great store in the latest forecasts...

I know that the OBR did not publish the forecast until I sat down, but I still think the shadow Chancellor could have done a little bit better than that. To be honest, I was hoping that the Leader of the Opposition was going to respond today; after that performance,...

I know that the OBR did not publish the forecast until I sat down, but I still think the shadow Chancellor could have done a little bit better than that. To be honest, I was hoping that the Leader of the Opposition was going to respond today; after that performance,...

I have to say that the sound and fury from the shadow Chancellor is extraordinary, given that it was his Government who ran the country and its citizens into chaos, with interest rate and inflation increases under the Truss mini-Budget. I welcome today’s forecast partly because there has been so...

I have to say that the sound and fury from the shadow Chancellor is extraordinary, given that it was his Government who ran the country and its citizens into chaos, with interest rate and inflation increases under the Truss mini-Budget. I welcome today’s forecast partly because there has been so...

I thank my hon. Friend for that question. The biggest change that we can make is ensuring that growth takes place in all parts of our country, rather than just for a few people in a few parts of Britain. The changes to economic geography that we have started by...

I thank my hon. Friend for that question. The biggest change that we can make is ensuring that growth takes place in all parts of our country, rather than just for a few people in a few parts of Britain. The changes to economic geography that we have started by...