To ask Mr Chancellor of the Exchequer, what estimate he has made of the maximum number of people whose income will fall as a result of changes to taxes and benefits introduced by the Summer Budget 2015; and if he will estimate the average fall in annual income for those...

To ask Mr Chancellor of the Exchequer, what estimate he has made of the maximum number of people whose income will fall as a result of changes to taxes and benefits introduced by the Summer Budget 2015; and if he will estimate the average fall in annual income for those...

To ask Mr Chancellor of the Exchequer, what estimate he has made of the effect on (a) relative and (b) absolute child poverty of (i) the two child limit for the child element of Tax Credit; and (ii) the removal of the family element of Child Tax Credit announced in...

To ask Mr Chancellor of the Exchequer, what estimate he has made of the effect on (a) relative and (b) absolute child poverty of (i) the two child limit for the child element of Tax Credit; and (ii) the removal of the family element of Child Tax Credit announced in...

To ask Mr Chancellor of the Exchequer, what estimate he has made of the effect on (a) relative and (b) absolute child poverty of the four year freeze announced in the Summer Budget 2015 on the uprating of (i) tax credits and (ii) child benefit.

To ask Mr Chancellor of the Exchequer, what estimate he has made of the effect on (a) relative and (b) absolute child poverty of the four year freeze announced in the Summer Budget 2015 on the uprating of (i) tax credits and (ii) child benefit.

To ask Her Majesty’s Government whether they intend to publish a distributional analysis of the impact of the Budget on households with different levels of income.

To ask Her Majesty’s Government whether they intend to publish a distributional analysis of the impact of the Budget on households with different levels of income.

What assessment he has made of the effect of the Summer Budget 2015 on people in Wales.

What assessment he has made of the effect of the Summer Budget 2015 on people in Wales.

With your permission, Mr Speaker, I congratulate the new shadow Wales team and welcome them to their places. I particularly congratulate the hon. Member for Llanelli (Nia Griffith), and wish her well in her new role.

The summer Budget was a one nation Budget to benefit the whole of the United Kingdom. It was a Budget to help to create a higher-wage, lower-tax, lower-welfare economy, and a Budget to reward hard work while protecting the most vulnerable in our society.

With your permission, Mr Speaker, I congratulate the new shadow Wales team and welcome them to their places. I particularly congratulate the hon. Member for Llanelli (Nia Griffith), and wish her well in her new role.

The summer Budget was a one nation Budget to benefit the whole of the United Kingdom. It was a Budget to help to create a higher-wage, lower-tax, lower-welfare economy, and a Budget to reward hard work while protecting the most vulnerable in our society.

I congratulate my hon. Friend the Member for Llanelli (Nia Griffith) on her very well-deserved promotion. The Budget actually cut millions from over 200,000 working families in Wales. How can the Secretary of State justify pushing even more Welsh children into poverty?

I congratulate my hon. Friend the Member for Llanelli (Nia Griffith) on her very well-deserved promotion. The Budget actually cut millions from over 200,000 working families in Wales. How can the Secretary of State justify pushing even more Welsh children into poverty?

I just do not accept the right hon. Lady’s charge. We discussed this issue at length in this place yesterday, and the measures passed with a comfortable majority. The truth is that the vast majority of people in Wales will benefit financially from all the measures we are putting in place through the Budget. I never thought I would see the day when Labour Members stood up to talk down the efforts we are making to increase pay for working people across Wales.

I just do not accept the right hon. Lady’s charge. We discussed this issue at length in this place yesterday, and the measures passed with a comfortable majority. The truth is that the vast majority of people in Wales will benefit financially from all the measures we are putting in place through the Budget. I never thought I would see the day when Labour Members stood up to talk down the efforts we are making to increase pay for working people across Wales.

What happened to the level of unemployment in Wales over the lifetime of the last Parliament, and what impact does the Secretary of State think the Budget will have on employment over the lifetime of this Parliament?

What happened to the level of unemployment in Wales over the lifetime of the last Parliament, and what impact does the Secretary of State think the Budget will have on employment over the lifetime of this Parliament?

My hon. Friend asks a really good question. What we have seen over the past five years, despite the scaremongering and Labour’s talking down of the Welsh economy, is unemployment continuing to fall. Today’s figures demonstrate once again that record numbers of people in Wales are going back to work—there is no reason to think that that will not continue—and we will achieve our long-term ambition of full employment.

My hon. Friend asks a really good question. What we have seen over the past five years, despite the scaremongering and Labour’s talking down of the Welsh economy, is unemployment continuing to fall. Today’s figures demonstrate once again that record numbers of people in Wales are going back to work—there is no reason to think that that will not continue—and we will achieve our long-term ambition of full employment.

The Prime Minister repeatedly promised before the election not to cut child tax credits, so will the Secretary of State explain to the 250,000 families in Wales who are losing an average of £1,000 a year, 90% of which will not be recouped by the rise in the minimum wage, just why his Conservative Government are breaking that promise? By reducing work incentives and hitting low-income families, any pretence they ever had to represent working people has been exposed as the sham it always was.

The Prime Minister repeatedly promised before the election not to cut child tax credits, so will the Secretary of State explain to the 250,000 families in Wales who are losing an average of £1,000 a year, 90% of which will not be recouped by the rise in the minimum wage, just why his Conservative Government are breaking that promise? By reducing work incentives and hitting low-income families, any pretence they ever had to represent working people has been exposed as the sham it always was.

I am really surprised by the tone that the shadow Secretary of State adopts for her first question. As I said, we discussed this issue at length yesterday. We have just come through an election in which the people of this country gave a very strong mandate and endorsement to one party to carry on fixing the economy and reducing the deficit. We cannot get on top of that or achieve it without tackling our spiralling welfare costs. I thought during the election campaign that Labour Members seemed to be getting close to understanding that, but I now see that they have abandoned all hope.

I am really surprised by the tone that the shadow Secretary of State adopts for her first question. As I said, we discussed this issue at length yesterday. We have just come through an election in which the people of this country gave a very strong mandate and endorsement to one party to carry on fixing the economy and reducing the deficit. We cannot get on top of that or achieve it without tackling our spiralling welfare costs. I thought during the election campaign that Labour Members seemed to be getting close to understanding that, but I now see that they have abandoned all hope.

We have a broken promise on child tax credits. The majority of the 250,000 families affected are in work, and the Government are deliberately choosing to push them into poverty. It is not only they who will lose out. These cuts will suck £200 million out of the Welsh economy, which is money that families, out of sheer necessity, spend directly in their local high streets. What assessment has the Secretary of State made of the knock-on effects of that lost income on jobs in our communities across Wales?

We have a broken promise on child tax credits. The majority of the 250,000 families affected are in work, and the Government are deliberately choosing to push them into poverty. It is not only they who will lose out. These cuts will suck £200 million out of the Welsh economy, which is money that families, out of sheer necessity, spend directly in their local high streets. What assessment has the Secretary of State made of the knock-on effects of that lost income on jobs in our communities across Wales?

Ahead of the summer Budget, we of course analysed how the measures taken together would affect people up and down the country. As I have said, eight out of 10 families will be better off as a result of the measures we are taking. The hon. Lady knows as well as I do that low pay has been a curse on the Welsh economy for far too long. I repeat the point that I never thought I would see the day when Labour Members stood up to talk down the efforts that we are making to drive up wage levels for people all across our country.

Ahead of the summer Budget, we of course analysed how the measures taken together would affect people up and down the country. As I have said, eight out of 10 families will be better off as a result of the measures we are taking. The hon. Lady knows as well as I do that low pay has been a curse on the Welsh economy for far too long. I repeat the point that I never thought I would see the day when Labour Members stood up to talk down the efforts that we are making to drive up wage levels for people all across our country.

My Lords, distributional analysis of the impacts of government policy across household income distribution was published by HM Treasury alongside the summer Budget. The analysis presents the cumulative impacts of policy decisions since the June 2010 Budget, up to and including the 2015 summer Budget. It shows that the proportion of public spending received by households in each income quintile remained similar between 2010-11 and 2017-18.

My Lords, distributional analysis of the impacts of government policy across household income distribution was published by HM Treasury alongside the summer Budget. The analysis presents the cumulative impacts of policy decisions since the June 2010 Budget, up to and including the 2015 summer Budget. It shows that the proportion of public spending received by households in each income quintile remained similar between 2010-11 and 2017-18.

I thank the Minister for that Answer. The Institute for Fiscal Studies estimates that the Budget has made 8.4 million working families worse off, many considerably so, through tax credit changes. However, the Chancellor has unilaterally decided not to tell the British public from now on what the distributional impact of the Budget measures will be. It is ludicrous to argue, as he does, that having a deficit justifies not publishing information about the regressive effects of the Budget. Does the Minister agree with the Resolution Foundation, which said:

“Deciding to ditch Budget distributional analysis is a retrograde move for which there is no plausible good explanation”?

Will he urge the Chancellor to rethink this attempt to hide information from the public?

I thank the Minister for that Answer. The Institute for Fiscal Studies estimates that the Budget has made 8.4 million working families worse off, many considerably so, through tax credit changes. However, the Chancellor has unilaterally decided not to tell the British public from now on what the distributional impact of the Budget measures will be. It is ludicrous to argue, as he does, that having a deficit justifies not publishing information about the regressive effects of the Budget. Does the Minister agree with the Resolution Foundation, which said:

“Deciding to ditch Budget distributional analysis is a retrograde move for which there is no plausible good explanation”?

Will he urge the Chancellor to rethink this attempt to hide information from the public?

My Lords, contrary to that question, as a result of some discussions involving the Chancellor, the specific distributional analysis that was requested was posted on the government website on 21 July. There followed a number of conversations outlining the Treasury’s belief that the new analysis was intellectually superior to those in the preceding Parliaments. I should add, however, that the requested distributional analysis has indeed been published, despite the apparent lack of awareness of it displayed in the previous question.

My Lords, contrary to that question, as a result of some discussions involving the Chancellor, the specific distributional analysis that was requested was posted on the government website on 21 July. There followed a number of conversations outlining the Treasury’s belief that the new analysis was intellectually superior to those in the preceding Parliaments. I should add, however, that the requested distributional analysis has indeed been published, despite the apparent lack of awareness of it displayed in the previous question.

My Lords, it is certainly a disgrace that the distributional analysis was not published with the Budget, a practice followed by the coalition every year so that questions could be asked during

Budget-related debates. Can the Minister confirm the analysis of the IFS around the distribution that the only gainers from the tax and benefit changes are the richest eighth and ninth deciles, and that the big losses are all concentrated in the poorest first to seventh deciles, with the very poorest among the biggest losers?

My Lords, it is certainly a disgrace that the distributional analysis was not published with the Budget, a practice followed by the coalition every year so that questions could be asked during

Budget-related debates. Can the Minister confirm the analysis of the IFS around the distribution that the only gainers from the tax and benefit changes are the richest eighth and ninth deciles, and that the big losses are all concentrated in the poorest first to seventh deciles, with the very poorest among the biggest losers?

My Lords, the distributional analysis subsequently published on the government website, as I just outlined, actually shows that if one needed to specifically pick where the impact was felt most severely across the different quintiles of income distribution, it was in the highest 20%.

My Lords, the distributional analysis subsequently published on the government website, as I just outlined, actually shows that if one needed to specifically pick where the impact was felt most severely across the different quintiles of income distribution, it was in the highest 20%.

My Lords, when addressing this Question, could the Minister bring to the attention to the House that, according to Treasury figures on 21 July, the debt-servicing costs of our huge borrowings is £1,841 per household. Is it surprising that people feel hard up? That money must come out through tax, VAT and other directions somewhere. Individually per household, that is what is being paid.

My Lords, when addressing this Question, could the Minister bring to the attention to the House that, according to Treasury figures on 21 July, the debt-servicing costs of our huge borrowings is £1,841 per household. Is it surprising that people feel hard up? That money must come out through tax, VAT and other directions somewhere. Individually per household, that is what is being paid.