Forecasting the economy, including the impact of Government policy decisions on inflation, is the responsibility of the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).

The OBR set out its latest assessment of policy measures in its Spring Forecast 2026, published on 3 March 2026. The OBR did not publish a specific estimate of the impact of the Soft Drinks Industry Levy on inflation in that forecast, or in previous Economic and Fiscal Outlook publications since the levy was announced in 2016, which would include the impact for the 2018-19 financial year.

In the 10-Year Health Plan, the Government has committed to consult on raising the upper alcohol limit for drinks labelled as alcohol-free to 0.5% alcohol by volume (ABV) from 0.05% ABV, which would bring the labelling guidance for no and low alcohol drink alternatives for England into alignment with international standards and several EU countries.

Departmental officials are progressing work to take forward this commitment, and we will update stakeholders in due course.

Alongside the plan, a large multi-year National Institute for Health and Care Research study is underway to examine the public health impacts of NoLo products, and we look forward to the findings the study being available later this year.

In Fit for the Future: 10-Year Health Plan for England, the Government has committed to explore measures to regulate access to no- and low-alcohol (NoLo) products in line with other alcoholic beverages. This policy is being pursued as alcohol substitute drinks are only intended for consumption by adults.

Department officials are progressing work to take forward this commitment and are in the process of scoping out the full details. We will update stakeholders in due course.

There are no current plans to change the licensing rules in pubs for 16- and 17-year-olds.

The changes to SDIL announced at Budget 2025 were confirmed following extensive industry engagement through the ‘Strengthening the Soft Drinks Industry Levy’ consultation, which was open from 28 April to 21 July 2025. Representations from businesses, and the trade bodies representing them, were received and considered as part of this process.

On 25 November 2025, the government published its summary of responses to the consultation. An assessment of impacts – including economic impacts for businesses – of the announced policy changes can be found within the Summary of Responses document here:

https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/strengthening-the-soft-drinks-industry-levy/outcome/strengthening-the-soft-drinks-industry-levy-summary-of-responses#assessment-of-impacts

The Soft Drinks Industry Levy (SDIL) came into law on 5 April 2018, having been announced in 2016. Between 2015 and 2024 sugar levels in drinks in scope of the levy reduced by 47%, and while no formal assessment of the impact on children has been undertaken, the scale of reduction will have an impact on the sugar intake of children.

Data from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey (NDNS), an ongoing Government survey of food consumption, nutrient intake, and nutrient status in the United Kingdom, showed a fall in sugar intakes between 2014 to 2019, in older children and adolescents. This appears to be partly driven by soft drinks contributing less to sugar intakes, likely as a result of the changes made to drinks in scope of the SDIL.

The latest results for 2019 to 2023 show that sugar intakes in children remain approximately double the maximum recommendation and children aged 11 to 18 years old are the highest consumers of sugar sweetened soft drinks. Diets high in sugar increase the risk of dental caries as well as weight gain, which can ultimately result in living with overweight and obesity and related adverse health outcomes. The NDNS will continue to monitor sugar intakes following reformulation of drinks in scope of the SDIL.

Academic modelling indicates that reductions in sugar from drinks subject to the SDIL may have prevented 5,000 cases of obesity in girls aged ten to 11 years old, with greater impact on those attending schools in the most deprived areas. Modelling data also suggests that the changes resulting from the SDIL may have reduced hospital admissions for dental caries related tooth extractions in those aged zero to nine years old and for asthma related issues in those aged five to 18 years old.

Following formal consultation, two changes to the SDIL were announced in the 2025 Autumn Budget which will apply from 1 January 2028:

• reducing the lower sugar threshold at which the levy applies from 5 grams to 4.5 grams of sugar per 100 millilitres; and
• removing previous exemptions for pre-packed added sugar milk-based and milk substitute, for example oat, soya, and/or almond, drinks.

The Department carried out a health benefits assessment to estimate the sugar and calorie reduction from these changes through product reformulation and consumer substitution to alternative drinks.

This analysis estimates a sugar reduction equivalent to per person per day calorie reductions of 0.3 kcal in five- to ten-year-olds, 0.4 kcal in 11- to 18-year-olds, 0.3 kcal in 19- to 64-year-olds, and 0.2 kcal in those aged 65 years old and over. This is equivalent to approximately four million kcal per day in children and 13 million kcal per day in adults.

When considering the reforms to the Soft Drinks Industry Levy (SDIL) announced at Budget 2025, HM Treasury worked closely with the Department for Health and Social Care throughout the process, including to consider whether the SDIL minimum sugar content threshold could, and should, align with the nutrient profiling model (NPM). However, it would be complex to align the SDIL, which applies only to drinks and is based on sugar content alone, with the NPM, which determines what are ‘less healthy’ foods and drinks by balancing a range of beneficial and less beneficial nutrients.

The government judges that the new SDIL threshold of 4.5g total sugar per 100ml strikes a fair balance between delivering on the SDIL’s health objectives and supporting producers with the process of reformulation.

Given the government recognises that these reforms ask soft drink producers to adapt and invest in further reformulation, and that certainty is required to support this process, the Chancellor has committed to not make any further changes to the design of the SDIL this Parliament.

The Soft Drinks Industry Levy (SDIL) and National Insurance contributions are the responsibility of HM Treasury and packaging taxes fall under the remit of the Department for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs.

The Nutrient Profile Model (NPM) is under the remit of the Department of Health and Social Care. We are committed to updating the standards which underpin the advertising restrictions on television and online and the promotion restrictions in stores and their equivalent places online on ‘less healthy’ food and drink products. The NPM 2004/05 is plainly out of date and updating the standards will strengthen the restrictions by reflecting the latest dietary advice and more effectively target the products of most concern to childhood obesity. An impact assessment will be published alongside a consultation later this year.

It was announced at Budget 2025 that milk based and milk substitute drinks, for instance soya, almond, and/or oat, would be included in the scope of the SDIL from 1 January 2028. These reforms are not expected to have any significant macroeconomic impacts, including on employment, on the basis that the levy is limited to soft drinks, and an estimated 11% of United Kingdom soft drink sales will be affected. A full assessment of the impacts of these changes is included within the Strengthening the Soft Drinks Industry Levy – Summary of Responses document. This is available at the following link:

https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/strengthening-the-soft-drinks-industry-levy/outcome/strengthening-the-soft-drinks-industry-levy-summary-of-responses#assessment-of-impacts

A Tax Information and Impact Note (TIIN) was published alongside the introduction of the bill, containing the changes to employer National Insurance contributions. The TIIN sets out the impact of the policy on the exchequer, the economic impacts of the policy, and the impacts on individuals, businesses, and civil society organisations, as well as an overview of the equality impacts. The Government protected the smallest hospitality businesses from recent changes to employer National Insurance by increasing the Employment Allowance to £10,500.

The Department for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs published the updated impact assessment of the packaging Extended Producer Responsibility scheme in October 2024, which evaluated the overall effects on packaging producers, without disaggregating by sector.

At Autumn Budget 2024, the Chancellor announced her intention to review the Soft Drinks Industry levy (SDIL) to drive further product reformulation, whilst maintaining the fundamental design of the levy as a tax on pre-packaged soft drinks with added sugar.

Following this review, between April and July 2025 the government consulted on proposed reforms to the SDIL. The outcomes of this consultation were confirmed at Budget 2025.

As part of the consultation, the government considered responses on dissolvable powders. It also considered the significant redesign of the levy necessary to include them as beyond the remit of the SDIL review, as set out by the Chancellor at Autumn Budget 2024.

More information on the outcome of the Strengthening the Soft Drinks Industry Levy consultation can be found here:

https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/strengthening-the-soft-drinks-industry-levy/outcome/strengthening-the-soft-drinks-industry-levy-summary-of-responses

The government will not make any further changes to the design of the SDIL.

The changes to the Soft Drinks Industry Levy announced in the 2025 Autumn Budget are:

• reducing the lower sugar threshold to 4.5 grams per 100 millilitres, as it is currently at five grams per 100 millilitres; and
• removing previous exemptions for milk-based and milk substitute drinks.

These changes will apply from 1 January 2028. They are designed to encourage producers to reformulate their products to reduce sugar levels and avoid paying the levy, thus reducing the calories consumed from the drinks in scope.

The Department carried out a health benefit assessment to estimate the calorie reduction from these changes through reformulation and substitution to alternative drinks. Together, these changes reduce sugar and calorie intake from drinks across all age groups.

The analysis used nutrition data from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey, sales data from Worldpanel by Numerator, formerly Kantar WorldPanel, and a series of assumptions to estimate the sugar and calories removed from diets due to the changes. The approach, data sources, and assumptions are set out in detail in the published assessment.

This analysis estimates per person per day calorie reductions of 0.3 kcal in five to 10 year olds, 0.4 kcal in 11 to 18 year olds, 0.3 kcal in 19 to 64 year olds, and 0.2 kcal in those aged 65 years old and over. This is equivalent to approximately four million kcal per day in children and 13 million kcal per day in adults.

The changes to the Soft Drinks Industry Levy announced in the 2025 Autumn Budget are:

• reducing the lower sugar threshold to 4.5 grams per 100 millilitres, as it is currently at five grams per 100 millilitres; and
• removing previous exemptions for milk-based and milk substitute drinks.

These changes will apply from 1 January 2028. They are designed to encourage producers to reformulate their products to reduce sugar levels and avoid paying the levy, thus reducing calories consumed from the drinks in scope.

Evidence shows that energy dense diets such as those that are high in sugar can contribute to excess calorie intake, which if sustained leads to weight gain and obesity. Population-level policies therefore aim to create a healthier food environment to reduce excess calories and obesity prevalence across the entire population.

The Department carried out a health benefit assessment to estimate the calorie reduction from these changes through reformulation and substitution to alternative drinks. Together, these changes reduce sugar and calorie intake from drinks across all age groups.

The analysis used nutrition data from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey, sales data from Worldpanel by Numerator, formerly Kantar WorldPanel, and a series of assumptions to estimate the sugar and calories removed from diets due to the changes. The approach, data sources, and assumptions are set out in detail in the published assessment.

This analysis estimates per person per day calorie reductions of 0.3 kcal in five to 10 year olds, 0.4 kcal in 11 to 18 year olds, 0.3 kcal in 19 to 64 year olds, and 0.2 kcal in those aged 65 years old and over.

The BMI Prevalence Model was then used to simulate the change in obesity prevalence from the estimated change in calorie intake at a population level. This model is based on weight loss equations by Henry (2005), a sample of height and weight data from Health Survey for England, and population data from Office for National Statistics.

This modelling estimates that a calorie reduction of this scale could translate into reducing cases of adult obesity by almost 14,000 and childhood obesity by almost 1,000.

The changes to the Soft Drinks Industry Levy (SDIL) confirmed at the Budget in November 2025 were informed by the ‘Strengthening the Soft Drinks Industry Levy’ consultation, which was open from 28 April to 21 July 2025. Representations from small manufacturers, and the trade bodies representing them, were received and considered as part of this process.

On 25 November 2025, the government published its summary of responses to the consultation, including a full assessment of the impacts of the announced policy changes to the levy. This is available here:

https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/strengthening-the-soft-drinks-industry-levy/outcome/strengthening-the-soft-drinks-industry-levy-summary-of-responses

The smallest producers, producing less than a million litres a year, will remain exempt from the SDIL.

Government data shows that sugar levels in drinks in scope of the Soft Drinks Industry Levy (SDIL) reduced by 47% between 2015 and 2024, removing approximately 57,000 tonnes of sugar from these drinks. This has had benefits across all socio-economic groups.

The National Diet and Nutrition Survey (NDNS), an ongoing Government-funded survey of food consumption and nutrient status in the United Kingdom, shows that sugar intakes of older children and adolescents reduced between 2014 and 2019, and the amount of sugar coming from soft drinks reduced.

Academic modelling papers suggest that the following benefits may have been realised as a result of the reductions in sugar seen in drinks in scope of the SDIL:

• prevented approximately 5,000 cases of obesity in girls aged ten to 11 years old, with a greater impact on those living in the most deprived areas, although the paper did not find any impact on girls in the younger age group, four to five years old, or in boys at either age;
• shown relative reductions in hospital admissions for dental caries related tooth extractions in children aged zero to four years old and five to nine years old of 28.6% and 5.5% respectively, with no change observed for older children, and reductions being observed in children living in most index of multiple deprivation areas regardless of deprivation; and
• shown a reduction in the incidence rates of child admissions to hospital for asthma related complications of 20.9% in those aged five to 18 years old, with reductions being similar across age-groups and deprivation quintiles.

No formal assessment has been carried out by the Government to date. While businesses are required to declare the sweeteners that have been used in products in the ingredients panel on food packaging, they are not required to provide information on the amounts of sweetener that have been used. Without this information, it is not possible to undertake a robust assessment of the levels of sweeteners that are used in products or consumed or how this has changed over time.

United Kingdom legislation dictates the amount of additives, including sweeteners, that can be used and in which products, along with any specific conditions of use. Compliance is monitored by the Food Standards Agency and supported in assessing the safety of additives by the independent Committee on Toxicity.

On 2 April 2025, the Scientific Advisory Committee on Nutrition (SACN) published a position statement on the World Health Organization guideline on non-sugar sweeteners. The SACN concluded that the evidence of a risk to health from consuming non-sugar sweeteners (NSS) is inconsistent. The SACN made a precautionary recommendation that intake of NSS be minimised. With greater certainty of the impact of sugars on health, the SACN recommended that “swapping sugars for NSS may help reduce sugar intake from foods and drinks (and so reduce energy intake), at least in the short term. The long-term goal is to limit both sugar and NSS intake”.

The SACN also recommended that the Government monitor the sweetener content of food and drinks, evaluate the impact of policies on intakes of sweeteners and compel industry to make publicly available data on the amounts of individual NSS within foods. The SACN also made several research recommendations including exploration of innovative ways to reliably monitor exposure to NSS.

The proposed changes to the Soft Drinks Industry Levy were subject to the ‘Strengthening the Soft Drinks Industry Levy’ consultation, which was open from 28 April to 21 July 2025. An assessment of economic and other impacts is included as part of this consultation document. This is available at

https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/strengthening-the-soft-drinks-industry-levy.

The Government is considering the consultation responses, including those providing evidence of the potential impacts on growth and investment, prior to making a decision at Budget. If the Government decides to make changes to the levy, it will publish an updated assessment of the confirmed policy’s impacts.

The Department for Business and Trade is not responsible for bans on vaping in pubs, restrictions on zero-alcohol drinks for 16–17-year-olds, or changes to drink-drive limits. These matters fall under the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) and the Department for Transport

DHSC advises that while vapes are less harmful than smoking, they are not risk-free and plans to consult on making most indoor settings vape-free. Many pubs already prohibit vaping voluntarily. In Fit for the Future: 10 Year Health Plan for England, the Government committed to explore prohibiting sales of no- and low-alcohol drinks to under-18s including prohibiting sales to individuals under the age of 18 years old. This policy is being pursued as these alcohol substitute drinks are intended for consumption by adults. DHSC Officials are scoping details and will update stakeholders in due course.

This Government takes road safety seriously. We are committed to reducing the numbers of those killed and injured on our roads. In 2023 there were 1,624 people killed on GB roads. There were an estimated 260 people killed in collisions involving drink driving, accounting for 16% of total fatalities in 2023. Given the significant casualties caused by drink driving, we have no plans to increase the drink drive limit.

I refer the Hon. Member the answer that I gave to PQ UIN 81415.

I refer the Hon. Member the answer that I gave to PQ UIN 81415.