The Ministry of Defence (MOD) published the Dalgety Bay Management Strategy report on 10 July 2014. The MOD has agreed in principle to implement the measures recommended in the report, though the arrangements are subject to discussion with other parties.

Consultation on implementing the strategy will now be led by the Scottish Environment Protection Agency, which will set out its timetable.

The Ministry of Defence (MOD) published the Dalgety Bay Management Strategy report on 10 July 2014. The MOD has agreed in principle to implement the measures recommended in the report, though the arrangements are subject to discussion with other parties.

Consultation on implementing the strategy will now be led by the Scottish Environment Protection Agency, which will set out its timetable.

The Ministry of Defence (MOD) published the Dalgety Bay Management Strategy report on 10 July 2014. The MOD has agreed in principle to implement the measures recommended in the report, though the arrangements are subject to discussion with other parties.

Consultation on implementing the strategy will now be led by the Scottish Environment Protection Agency, which will set out its timetable.

The Department has been engaged with the Committee on Medical Aspects of Radiation in the Environment throughout the production of its report on Dalgety Bay, and our priority throughout has been to make sure that it is comprehensive, accurate and up to date.

During this process information was provided to the committee for due consideration prior to final publication.

In 2006 the then Health Protection Agency (HPA) Radiological Protection Authority advised that radioactive contamination on Dalgety Bay presented a low risk to the public. A more recent scoping risk assessment undertaken in 2011 by the HPA Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards at the bequest of the Scottish Government concluded that the risk to health was very low.

The view of the Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards (now part of Public Health England) remains unchanged. However, the Ministry of Defence (MOD) is completing a detailed quantitative risk assessment to inform the longer term management strategy which will be available in due course.

Copies of the advice received by MOD together with a copy of the more detailed risk assessment, when published, will be placed in the Library of the House.

In 2006 the then Health Protection Agency (HPA) Radiological Protection Authority advised that radioactive contamination on Dalgety Bay presented a low risk to the public. A more recent scoping risk assessment undertaken in 2011 by the HPA Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards at the bequest of the Scottish Government concluded that the risk to health was very low.

The view of the Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards (now part of Public Health England) remains unchanged. However, the Ministry of Defence (MOD) is completing a detailed quantitative risk assessment to inform the longer term management strategy which will be available in due course.

Copies of the advice received by MOD together with a copy of the more detailed risk assessment, when published, will be placed in the Library of the House.

In 2006 the then Health Protection Agency (HPA) Radiological Protection Authority advised that radioactive contamination on Dalgety Bay presented a low risk to the public. A more recent scoping risk assessment undertaken in 2011 by the HPA Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards at the bequest of the Scottish Government concluded that the risk to health was very low.

The view of the Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards (now part of Public Health England) remains unchanged. However, the Ministry of Defence (MOD) is completing a detailed quantitative risk assessment to inform the longer term management strategy which will be available in due course.

Copies of the advice received by MOD together with a copy of the more detailed risk assessment, when published, will be placed in the Library of the House.

The right hon. Member will be aware that the Ministry of Defence remains committed to working alongside the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) and other interested parties as part of a coalition to address the issue of radioactive contamination at Dalgety bay in the long term.

I am pleased to be able to report that the Department remains on track to define and deliver a proposal informed by the work of Public Health England and the more detailed risk assessment for SEPA to assess the wider implications of implementation on stakeholders and the local community from the end of June 2014.

I have been asked to reply on behalf of the Cabinet Office.

The information requested falls within the responsibility of the UK Statistics Authority. I have asked the authority to reply.

Letter from Glen Watson, dated April 2014:

As Director General for the Office for National Statistics, I have been asked to reply to your recent Parliamentary Question asking the Chancellor of the Exchequer, with reference to the publication by the Office for National Statistics entitled "Scotland-Household Taxes and Benefits: update", if he will publish the data contained in that document on non-cash benefits from public spending, cash benefits and taxes paid by decile groups as it relates to Scotland (193841).

The table shows the average income and state benefits received and taxes paid by Scottish households in each income decile.

These estimates are produced from the UK's Effects of Taxes and Benefits on Household Income data series, which is based on Living Costs and Food Survey, an annual survey of approximately 5,500 households. The Effects of Taxes and Benefits on Household Income annual publication only includes analysis of taxes paid and state benefits received by different income deciles for the UK as a whole, and ONS does not regularly publish household income analysis by decile group for individual nations or regions of the UK.

These estimates, as with any involving sample surveys, are subject to a margin of uncertainty. Restricting the survey data to only Scottish households is likely to result in a relatively higher degree of uncertainty around these estimates compared with those published in the Effects of Taxes and Benefits on Household Income. In order to increase the sample number of households available for this analysis, and so reduce the uncertainty of the estimates, three financial years of survey data from Scotland have been combined.

The information is given in the following table.

The Ministry of Defence (MOD) continues to work closely with the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA), and the stakeholder group they have assembled, with a view to agreeing an appropriate long term solution for managing the radium contamination at Dalgety Bay.

I will write shortly to the right hon. Member with the detail of the timelines for the further scientific risk assessment and other work necessary to identify an appropriate long-term solution at Dalgety Bay. This timetable has been agreed between SEPA and the MOD and should result in identification of the preferred management option for the site by summer 2014.

Having published the Outline Management Option Appraisal MOD officials will be meeting with both SEPA and Public Health England on 6 February 2014 in order to establish the health protection criteria necessary to inform the development and definition of the management option.

Once work on identifying the most appropriate long term management option has concluded, we expect to play an active part in supporting SEPA in their engagement with wider stakeholders (including the Dalgety Bay Forum) to discuss the practicalities of implementation.

With regard to the recent meeting of the Dalgety Bay Forum on 30 January 2014, no requirement was placed on the MOD to present but we remain willing to participate in any future discussions with the Forum whenever this is necessary and as requested by SEPA as Chair of the Forum.

Substantive answer from Andrew Murrison to Gordon Brown:

In my answer of 6 February 2014 (Official Report, columns 352W-353W) and further to your letter of 9 January, I promised to inform you of the progress that has been made and the proposed way forward at Dalgety Bay following the adjournment debate on 17 December 2013.

As you are aware the Ministry of Defence (MOD) remains committed to working alongside the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) and other interested parties as part of a coalition to address the issue of radioactive contamination at Dalgety Bay in the long term.

As promised, the MOD has finalised the preliminary Outline Management Options Appraisal report. You were given a draft copy and it was published by SEPA and the MOD on 22 January.

The Outline Management Options Appraisal report aims to provide an indication of the potential nature and range of available measures and activities which could be implemented to enable the effective long-term management of the contamination and concludes that the preferred option is likely to comprise a combination of each of the measures and activities presented.

However, further work is required before the best possible course of action can be determined. This work includes developing a more detailed quantitative risk assessment and health protection and remediation criteria.

The sequence of events and timeframe needed to deliver this further work and provide an effective long-term management solution to the issue at Dalgety Bay are as follows:

1. The MOD will develop a more detailed risk assessment (DQRA) to define the most appropriate management option, taking account of the views provided by SEPA and PHE at a recent meeting on 6 February.

2. The MOD will define and develop a proposal for an appropriate long-term management solution informed by the PHE and DQRA contribution by the end of June 2014.

3. SEPA will assess the wider implications of implementation on stakeholders and the local community, starting from June 2014.

4. At the same time the MOD will establish the extent to which the Department may fund the management solution and agree with SEPA and other parties an appropriate management model for overseeing any remediation and subsequent transition to the “normalised” management arrangements.

The definition of a normalised management regime that we are using is the point at which the risk to human health can be maintained at the level deemed to be acceptable by Public Health England without the need for monthly monitoring and recovery of radioactive sources (radium-226) and current access restrictions, such that the 'land' is deemed suitable for its current use within the context of Part 2A of the Environment Protection Act 1990, at which point MOD would expect SEPA to resume responsibility for routine monitoring and the Local Authority, Moray Estates and Sailing Club to assume their respective responsibilities for maintaining sea defences etc.

Accordingly, I have asked my officials to seek a view by the end of March from Public Health England (PHE) as to the level of reduction in current radioactive levels necessary to achieve long-term public safety within a “normalised” management regime. Normalisation implies putting in place any measures necessary to contain or remove contamination to ensure the risks to public safety remain very low in the long term. I have raised the importance of achieving this without delay with the Department of Health.

Until the work outlined above is completed the MOD will continue the monthly monitoring and recovery programme to ensure the risk to the public remains very low.

The Ministry of Defence (MOD) continues to work closely with the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA), and the stakeholder group they have assembled, with a view to agreeing an appropriate long term solution for managing the radium contamination at Dalgety Bay.

I will write shortly to the right hon. Member with the detail of the timelines for the further scientific risk assessment and other work necessary to identify an appropriate long-term solution at Dalgety Bay. This timetable has been agreed between SEPA and the MOD and should result in identification of the preferred management option for the site by summer 2014.

Having published the Outline Management Option Appraisal MOD officials will be meeting with both SEPA and Public Health England on 6 February 2014 in order to establish the health protection criteria necessary to inform the development and definition of the management option.

Once work on identifying the most appropriate long term management option has concluded, we expect to play an active part in supporting SEPA in their engagement with wider stakeholders (including the Dalgety Bay Forum) to discuss the practicalities of implementation.

With regard to the recent meeting of the Dalgety Bay Forum on 30 January 2014, no requirement was placed on the MOD to present but we remain willing to participate in any future discussions with the Forum whenever this is necessary and as requested by SEPA as Chair of the Forum.

Substantive answer from Andrew Murrison to Gordon Brown:

In my answer of 6 February 2014 (Official Report, columns 352W-353W) and further to your letter of 9 January, I promised to inform you of the progress that has been made and the proposed way forward at Dalgety Bay following the adjournment debate on 17 December 2013.

As you are aware the Ministry of Defence (MOD) remains committed to working alongside the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) and other interested parties as part of a coalition to address the issue of radioactive contamination at Dalgety Bay in the long term.

As promised, the MOD has finalised the preliminary Outline Management Options Appraisal report. You were given a draft copy and it was published by SEPA and the MOD on 22 January.

The Outline Management Options Appraisal report aims to provide an indication of the potential nature and range of available measures and activities which could be implemented to enable the effective long-term management of the contamination and concludes that the preferred option is likely to comprise a combination of each of the measures and activities presented.

However, further work is required before the best possible course of action can be determined. This work includes developing a more detailed quantitative risk assessment and health protection and remediation criteria.

The sequence of events and timeframe needed to deliver this further work and provide an effective long-term management solution to the issue at Dalgety Bay are as follows:

1. The MOD will develop a more detailed risk assessment (DQRA) to define the most appropriate management option, taking account of the views provided by SEPA and PHE at a recent meeting on 6 February.

2. The MOD will define and develop a proposal for an appropriate long-term management solution informed by the PHE and DQRA contribution by the end of June 2014.

3. SEPA will assess the wider implications of implementation on stakeholders and the local community, starting from June 2014.

4. At the same time the MOD will establish the extent to which the Department may fund the management solution and agree with SEPA and other parties an appropriate management model for overseeing any remediation and subsequent transition to the “normalised” management arrangements.

The definition of a normalised management regime that we are using is the point at which the risk to human health can be maintained at the level deemed to be acceptable by Public Health England without the need for monthly monitoring and recovery of radioactive sources (radium-226) and current access restrictions, such that the 'land' is deemed suitable for its current use within the context of Part 2A of the Environment Protection Act 1990, at which point MOD would expect SEPA to resume responsibility for routine monitoring and the Local Authority, Moray Estates and Sailing Club to assume their respective responsibilities for maintaining sea defences etc.

Accordingly, I have asked my officials to seek a view by the end of March from Public Health England (PHE) as to the level of reduction in current radioactive levels necessary to achieve long-term public safety within a “normalised” management regime. Normalisation implies putting in place any measures necessary to contain or remove contamination to ensure the risks to public safety remain very low in the long term. I have raised the importance of achieving this without delay with the Department of Health.

Until the work outlined above is completed the MOD will continue the monthly monitoring and recovery programme to ensure the risk to the public remains very low.

The Ministry of Defence (MOD) continues to work closely with the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA), and the stakeholder group they have assembled, with a view to agreeing an appropriate long term solution for managing the radium contamination at Dalgety Bay.

I will write shortly to the right hon. Member with the detail of the timelines for the further scientific risk assessment and other work necessary to identify an appropriate long-term solution at Dalgety Bay. This timetable has been agreed between SEPA and the MOD and should result in identification of the preferred management option for the site by summer 2014.

Having published the Outline Management Option Appraisal MOD officials will be meeting with both SEPA and Public Health England on 6 February 2014 in order to establish the health protection criteria necessary to inform the development and definition of the management option.

Once work on identifying the most appropriate long term management option has concluded, we expect to play an active part in supporting SEPA in their engagement with wider stakeholders (including the Dalgety Bay Forum) to discuss the practicalities of implementation.

With regard to the recent meeting of the Dalgety Bay Forum on 30 January 2014, no requirement was placed on the MOD to present but we remain willing to participate in any future discussions with the Forum whenever this is necessary and as requested by SEPA as Chair of the Forum.

Substantive answer from Andrew Murrison to Gordon Brown:

In my answer of 6 February 2014 (Official Report, columns 352W-353W) and further to your letter of 9 January, I promised to inform you of the progress that has been made and the proposed way forward at Dalgety Bay following the adjournment debate on 17 December 2013.

As you are aware the Ministry of Defence (MOD) remains committed to working alongside the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) and other interested parties as part of a coalition to address the issue of radioactive contamination at Dalgety Bay in the long term.

As promised, the MOD has finalised the preliminary Outline Management Options Appraisal report. You were given a draft copy and it was published by SEPA and the MOD on 22 January.

The Outline Management Options Appraisal report aims to provide an indication of the potential nature and range of available measures and activities which could be implemented to enable the effective long-term management of the contamination and concludes that the preferred option is likely to comprise a combination of each of the measures and activities presented.

However, further work is required before the best possible course of action can be determined. This work includes developing a more detailed quantitative risk assessment and health protection and remediation criteria.

The sequence of events and timeframe needed to deliver this further work and provide an effective long-term management solution to the issue at Dalgety Bay are as follows:

1. The MOD will develop a more detailed risk assessment (DQRA) to define the most appropriate management option, taking account of the views provided by SEPA and PHE at a recent meeting on 6 February.

2. The MOD will define and develop a proposal for an appropriate long-term management solution informed by the PHE and DQRA contribution by the end of June 2014.

3. SEPA will assess the wider implications of implementation on stakeholders and the local community, starting from June 2014.

4. At the same time the MOD will establish the extent to which the Department may fund the management solution and agree with SEPA and other parties an appropriate management model for overseeing any remediation and subsequent transition to the “normalised” management arrangements.

The definition of a normalised management regime that we are using is the point at which the risk to human health can be maintained at the level deemed to be acceptable by Public Health England without the need for monthly monitoring and recovery of radioactive sources (radium-226) and current access restrictions, such that the 'land' is deemed suitable for its current use within the context of Part 2A of the Environment Protection Act 1990, at which point MOD would expect SEPA to resume responsibility for routine monitoring and the Local Authority, Moray Estates and Sailing Club to assume their respective responsibilities for maintaining sea defences etc.

Accordingly, I have asked my officials to seek a view by the end of March from Public Health England (PHE) as to the level of reduction in current radioactive levels necessary to achieve long-term public safety within a “normalised” management regime. Normalisation implies putting in place any measures necessary to contain or remove contamination to ensure the risks to public safety remain very low in the long term. I have raised the importance of achieving this without delay with the Department of Health.

Until the work outlined above is completed the MOD will continue the monthly monitoring and recovery programme to ensure the risk to the public remains very low.

The Ministry of Defence (MOD) continues to work closely with the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA), and the stakeholder group they have assembled, with a view to agreeing an appropriate long term solution for managing the radium contamination at Dalgety Bay.

I will write shortly to the right hon. Member with the detail of the timelines for the further scientific risk assessment and other work necessary to identify an appropriate long-term solution at Dalgety Bay. This timetable has been agreed between SEPA and the MOD and should result in identification of the preferred management option for the site by summer 2014.

Having published the Outline Management Option Appraisal MOD officials will be meeting with both SEPA and Public Health England on 6 February 2014 in order to establish the health protection criteria necessary to inform the development and definition of the management option.

Once work on identifying the most appropriate long term management option has concluded, we expect to play an active part in supporting SEPA in their engagement with wider stakeholders (including the Dalgety Bay Forum) to discuss the practicalities of implementation.

With regard to the recent meeting of the Dalgety Bay Forum on 30 January 2014, no requirement was placed on the MOD to present but we remain willing to participate in any future discussions with the Forum whenever this is necessary and as requested by SEPA as Chair of the Forum.

Substantive answer from Andrew Murrison to Gordon Brown:

In my answer of 6 February 2014 (Official Report, columns 352W-353W) and further to your letter of 9 January, I promised to inform you of the progress that has been made and the proposed way forward at Dalgety Bay following the adjournment debate on 17 December 2013.

As you are aware the Ministry of Defence (MOD) remains committed to working alongside the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) and other interested parties as part of a coalition to address the issue of radioactive contamination at Dalgety Bay in the long term.

As promised, the MOD has finalised the preliminary Outline Management Options Appraisal report. You were given a draft copy and it was published by SEPA and the MOD on 22 January.

The Outline Management Options Appraisal report aims to provide an indication of the potential nature and range of available measures and activities which could be implemented to enable the effective long-term management of the contamination and concludes that the preferred option is likely to comprise a combination of each of the measures and activities presented.

However, further work is required before the best possible course of action can be determined. This work includes developing a more detailed quantitative risk assessment and health protection and remediation criteria.

The sequence of events and timeframe needed to deliver this further work and provide an effective long-term management solution to the issue at Dalgety Bay are as follows:

1. The MOD will develop a more detailed risk assessment (DQRA) to define the most appropriate management option, taking account of the views provided by SEPA and PHE at a recent meeting on 6 February.

2. The MOD will define and develop a proposal for an appropriate long-term management solution informed by the PHE and DQRA contribution by the end of June 2014.

3. SEPA will assess the wider implications of implementation on stakeholders and the local community, starting from June 2014.

4. At the same time the MOD will establish the extent to which the Department may fund the management solution and agree with SEPA and other parties an appropriate management model for overseeing any remediation and subsequent transition to the “normalised” management arrangements.

The definition of a normalised management regime that we are using is the point at which the risk to human health can be maintained at the level deemed to be acceptable by Public Health England without the need for monthly monitoring and recovery of radioactive sources (radium-226) and current access restrictions, such that the 'land' is deemed suitable for its current use within the context of Part 2A of the Environment Protection Act 1990, at which point MOD would expect SEPA to resume responsibility for routine monitoring and the Local Authority, Moray Estates and Sailing Club to assume their respective responsibilities for maintaining sea defences etc.

Accordingly, I have asked my officials to seek a view by the end of March from Public Health England (PHE) as to the level of reduction in current radioactive levels necessary to achieve long-term public safety within a “normalised” management regime. Normalisation implies putting in place any measures necessary to contain or remove contamination to ensure the risks to public safety remain very low in the long term. I have raised the importance of achieving this without delay with the Department of Health.

Until the work outlined above is completed the MOD will continue the monthly monitoring and recovery programme to ensure the risk to the public remains very low.

The Ministry of Defence (MOD) continues to work closely with the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA), and the stakeholder group they have assembled, with a view to agreeing an appropriate long term solution for managing the radium contamination at Dalgety Bay.

I will write shortly to the right hon. Member with the detail of the timelines for the further scientific risk assessment and other work necessary to identify an appropriate long-term solution at Dalgety Bay. This timetable has been agreed between SEPA and the MOD and should result in identification of the preferred management option for the site by summer 2014.

Having published the Outline Management Option Appraisal MOD officials will be meeting with both SEPA and Public Health England on 6 February 2014 in order to establish the health protection criteria necessary to inform the development and definition of the management option.

Once work on identifying the most appropriate long term management option has concluded, we expect to play an active part in supporting SEPA in their engagement with wider stakeholders (including the Dalgety Bay Forum) to discuss the practicalities of implementation.

With regard to the recent meeting of the Dalgety Bay Forum on 30 January 2014, no requirement was placed on the MOD to present but we remain willing to participate in any future discussions with the Forum whenever this is necessary and as requested by SEPA as Chair of the Forum.

The Ministry of Defence (MOD) continues to work closely with the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA), and the stakeholder group they have assembled, with a view to agreeing an appropriate long term solution for managing the radium contamination at Dalgety Bay.

I will write shortly to the right hon. Member with the detail of the timelines for the further scientific risk assessment and other work necessary to identify an appropriate long-term solution at Dalgety Bay. This timetable has been agreed between SEPA and the MOD and should result in identification of the preferred management option for the site by summer 2014.

Having published the Outline Management Option Appraisal MOD officials will be meeting with both SEPA and Public Health England on 6 February 2014 in order to establish the health protection criteria necessary to inform the development and definition of the management option.

Once work on identifying the most appropriate long term management option has concluded, we expect to play an active part in supporting SEPA in their engagement with wider stakeholders (including the Dalgety Bay Forum) to discuss the practicalities of implementation.

With regard to the recent meeting of the Dalgety Bay Forum on 30 January 2014, no requirement was placed on the MOD to present but we remain willing to participate in any future discussions with the Forum whenever this is necessary and as requested by SEPA as Chair of the Forum.

The Ministry of Defence (MOD) continues to work closely with the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA), and the stakeholder group they have assembled, with a view to agreeing an appropriate long term solution for managing the radium contamination at Dalgety Bay.

I will write shortly to the right hon. Member with the detail of the timelines for the further scientific risk assessment and other work necessary to identify an appropriate long-term solution at Dalgety Bay. This timetable has been agreed between SEPA and the MOD and should result in identification of the preferred management option for the site by summer 2014.

Having published the Outline Management Option Appraisal MOD officials will be meeting with both SEPA and Public Health England on 6 February 2014 in order to establish the health protection criteria necessary to inform the development and definition of the management option.

Once work on identifying the most appropriate long term management option has concluded, we expect to play an active part in supporting SEPA in their engagement with wider stakeholders (including the Dalgety Bay Forum) to discuss the practicalities of implementation.

With regard to the recent meeting of the Dalgety Bay Forum on 30 January 2014, no requirement was placed on the MOD to present but we remain willing to participate in any future discussions with the Forum whenever this is necessary and as requested by SEPA as Chair of the Forum.

The Ministry of Defence (MOD) continues to work closely with the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA), and the stakeholder group they have assembled, with a view to agreeing an appropriate long term solution for managing the radium contamination at Dalgety Bay.

I will write shortly to the right hon. Member with the detail of the timelines for the further scientific risk assessment and other work necessary to identify an appropriate long-term solution at Dalgety Bay. This timetable has been agreed between SEPA and the MOD and should result in identification of the preferred management option for the site by summer 2014.

Having published the Outline Management Option Appraisal MOD officials will be meeting with both SEPA and Public Health England on 6 February 2014 in order to establish the health protection criteria necessary to inform the development and definition of the management option.

Once work on identifying the most appropriate long term management option has concluded, we expect to play an active part in supporting SEPA in their engagement with wider stakeholders (including the Dalgety Bay Forum) to discuss the practicalities of implementation.

With regard to the recent meeting of the Dalgety Bay Forum on 30 January 2014, no requirement was placed on the MOD to present but we remain willing to participate in any future discussions with the Forum whenever this is necessary and as requested by SEPA as Chair of the Forum.

Based on the main IFS projections, an independent Scotland would need to make permanent tax increases or spending cuts in 2020 equivalent to £6.1 billion (in 2012-13 prices) to put debt on course to reach 40% of GDP in 2062-63. This is equivalent to tax increases or spending cuts of £1,150 per person and £2,560 per household. Under their most optimistic scenario, the IFS determined that an independent Scotland would need to make a permanent adjustment in 2020 equivalent to increasing the basic rate of tax by 8 pence, which would add an average of £1,000 per year to the income tax of a basic rate taxpayer (in 2012-13 prices).

The most optimistic IFS scenario for an independent Scotland still therefore means an adjustment that would be two and half times the size that the IFS forecast would be required for the UK.