Written question asked by Lord Willetts (Conservative) on Thursday, 25 October 2007, in the House of Commons. It was due for an answer on Monday, 29 October 2007. It was answered by Angela Eagle (Labour) on Tuesday, 30 October 2007 on behalf of the Office for National Statistics.

Population

Question: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what central assumptions his Department makes in its projections for (a) mean and (b) median (i) fertility, (ii) average age at marriage and (iii) marriage rates for each gender.

Answer: The information requested falls within the responsibility of the National Statistician, who has been asked to reply.Letter from Karen Dunnell, dated 30 October 2007:"As National Statistician I have been asked to reply to your question regarding the central assumptions made in projections for (a) mean and (b) median (i) fertility, (ii) average age at marriage and (iii) marriage rates for each gender. (161835).""Assumptions of fertility rates are required for national population projections. The most recent national population projections, based on the population at the middle of 2006, were published on 23 October 2007. Details of the central fertility assumptions for the UK and its constituent countries are available at:""http://www.gad.gov.uk/Demography_Data/Populationy2006/methodology/fertass.asp""Projections of the population by legal marital status are only produced at England and Wales level. The most recent population projections by marital status are based on the population at the middle of 2003 and were published in March 2005. Details of the marriage rate assumptions are available at:""http://www.gad.gov.uk/Demography_Data/Marital_status_projections/2003/marriage_assumptions.asp""It would require further work to calculate projections of the average age at marriage consistent with the marriage rate assumptions used for the 2003-based marital status projections. This information could be provided at a later date."

Secondary information