Written question asked by Lord Bradshaw (Liberal Democrat), in the House of Lords. It was answered by Lord Bassam of Brighton (Labour) on Tuesday, 11 December 2007.

Energy: Oil Prices

Question: asked Her Majesty's Government:Whether they assume oil prices will fall to $53 per barrel by 2030 in their transport strategy forward planning and modelling.

Answer: The recent Department for Transport Road Traffic Forecasts for England published in October 2007 use the current Department for Business and Regulatory Reform (BERR) projection for the long-term oil price. This is $53 per barrel by 2020 in 2006 prices. Similarly, the department's UK Air Passenger Demand and CO2 Forecasts used the BERR work for its central estimates for oil prices. Both publications also included sensitivity analysis where oil prices were assumed to be both higher and lower than the $53 central estimate using $80 and $25 per barrel respectively. Details are available at: www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/roads/roadpricing/researchtrafficcongestion www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/aviation/environmentalissues/ukairdemandandco2forecasts/ Rail forecasts also use the BERR projections, though recent analyses have not needed forecasts so far into the future. BERR is keeping this projection under review. Modelling and planning for the transport strategy will reflect latest BERR work.

Secondary information

Type: Written question
Reference: 747; 697 c29WA
Session: 2007-08
Related items: Railways: Electrification
Thursday, 31 January 2008
Written questions
House of Lords; Railways: Electrification
Tuesday, 29 January 2008
Written questions
House of Lords
Subjects: Forecasts Oil Policy Prices Transport
Contains statistics: Yes
Link: View this Written question on www.publications.parliament.uk