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Migration

Answer

The information requested falls within the responsibility of the National Statistician, who has been asked to reply.Letter from Karen Dunnell, dated 18 February 2008:"As National Statistician, I have been asked to reply to your questions on Total International Migration related issues:""how many visitor switchers were taken into account for the purpose of calculating the balance of total international migration to and from the UK in each year since 1991; (177391)""how many asylum seekers were taken into account for the purpose of calculating the balance of total international migration to and from the UK in the years 1997 to 2006 inclusive; and what proportion of net migration these figures represented in each of those years; (177392)""what the level of inward migration from EU A8 countries for the purpose of Total International Migration statistics to the UK was in (a) each year and (b) each quarter since 1 January 2004. (178332)""Table 1, attached, gives the adjustments made to Total International Migration (TIM) to account for visitor switchers from 1991 to 2006. Visitor switchers are those that intended to come to (or leave) the UK for less than 12 months and then switched to being migrants by staying (or leaving) for more than twelve months; i.e. someone who came as a visitor but switched to a migrant.""Table 2, attached, gives the asylum seeker adjustment made to Total International Migration (TIM) estimates of inflows, outflows, and net-migration from 1997 to 2006. It also gives the corresponding TIM estimates; and shows the asylum seeker adjustments as a percentage of these. As indicated in the table, we do not recommend using the figures on asylum seekers as a proportion of net migration as an indicator.""The asylum seeker adjustments are based on Home Office data but differ from the asylum statistics published by the Home Office in a number of respects. In order to fit with the United Nations recommended definition of an international long-term migrant, which is used in calculating population estimates, the data only include cases where the asylum seeker remained in the UK for more than 12 months. These data will also exclude a number of asylum seekers that are accounted for already in International Passenger Survey (IPS) estimates of migrants. Finally the adjustments include both principal applicants and their dependants whereas HO figures generally exclude dependants.""Estimates of annual inward migration from EU A8 countries for 2004 and 2005 are available in Table 2.2 of the ““International Migration 2005, Series MN no.32”” which can be found on the National Statistics website at:""http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=507""The 2006 Total International Migration (TIM) estimates of annual inward migration from EU A8 countries (i.e. by country of last residence) are not yet available but are due to be released in May 2008. All 2006 TIM estimates will be produced using revised methods, and these changes will also result in revisions for earlier years. Therefore the 2004 and 2005 estimates currently in the public domain are likely to change slightly. However, estimates of annual inward migration by EU A8 nationals (as opposed to country of last residence referred to above) are available for 2004-2006 and can be found in Table 1 (Citizenship UK) at the following link on the National Statistics website:""http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=15053""Quarterly estimates of inward migration are not available for country of last residence or nationality either on a TIM or IPS basis.""Total International Migration data are the most comprehensive estimates of long-term international migration. They are produced by combining migration data from the IPS, Home Office data on asylum seekers, migration data between the UK and the Irish Republic and adjustments for (migrant and visitor) ““switchers””, i.e. those whose initial length of stay intentions are not realised."

Table 1: International migration, visitor switcher¹ adjustment, time series 1991 to 2006², United Kingdom
Thousand
	Inflow	Outflow	Net
1991	28	18	10
1992	28	27	1
1993	31	23	8
1994	31	22	9
1995	25	18	7
1996	25	17	8
1997	23	18	5
1998	28	16	12
1999	29	21	8
2000	40	19	20
2001	36	26	10
2002	45	22	23
2003	44	21	23
2004	43	16	27
2005	51	15	36
2006	50	16	35
Notes: 1. A visitor switcher is defined as someone who enters or leaves the UK intending to stay in the destination country for less than a year but who actually stays for a year or longer. Thus ““inflow”” indicates the estimate of those who entered the UK as visitors, but who switched to being migrants and stayed a year or more. 2. Several different methods and data sources have been used between 1991 and 2006 to estimate the visitor switcher adjustment. For the years 1991 to 2000, the adjustment is based on visa extension data from the Home Office. For the years 2000 to 2003, the adjustment is based on fixed proportions applied to certain categories of visitors considered most likely to switch and become migrants. From 2004, the adjustment is based on specific questions asked in the International Passenger Survey (IPS) to identify former visitor switchers which is then applied to certain visitor categories. In all cases, the best available data has been used to produce these adjustments. Source: Office for National Statistics.

Table 2: International migration, asylum seeker adjustment¹ flows and as a percentage of Total International Migration (TIM), time series 1997 to 2006², United Kingdom
Thousand
	Asylum seekers adjustment	TIM³	Asylum seekers adjustment as percentage of TIM
	Inflow	Out- flow	Net	Inflow	Out- flow	Net	Inflow	Out- flow	Net4
1997	34	10	24	327	279	48	10	4	50
1998	51	10	41	391	251	140	13	4	29
1999	80	8	72	454	291	163	18	3	44
2000	92	10	81	479	321	158	19	3	51
2001	84	18	66	479	306	173	18	6	38
2002	96	21	75	513	358	154	19	6	49
2003	54	17	37	508	361	147	11	5	25
2004	36	16	21	586	342	244	6	5	8
2005	26	16	11	563	359	204	5	4	5
2006	23	17	6	591	400	191	4	4	3
Notes: 1. These figures are a statistical adjustment, not estimates of asylum seekers. Those migrants captured by the International Passenger Survey (IPS) stating the reason for visit as ““to seek asylum”” are excluded from these calculations to avoid double counting. 2. Several improvements have been made to the data sources and methods used in the estimation of the asylum seeker adjustment between 1997 and 2006. These figures are produced using the best available data and methods for each year. 3. Total International Migration (TIM) is the most comprehensive estimate of migration. It is based mainly on the IPS but also includes estimates of Irish flows supplied by the Irish Central Statistics Office, and adjustments for asylum seekers not captured in the IPS and for ““switchers”” (i.e. those whose migration intentions are not realised). 4. We recommend looking at the inflow and outflow proportions as the net proportion could be highly misleading. For example, should outflows of asylum seekers exceed inflows this would show as a negative percentage. If TIM net migration were zero, this would show as an infinite percentage. Source: Office for National Statistics.

Secondary information

Type

Written question

Reference

472 c357-9W; 177391

Session

2007-08

Subjects

Migration

Link

View this Written question on www.publications.parliament.uk