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Population

Answer

The information requested falls within the responsibility of the UK Statistics Authority. I have asked the authority to reply.Letter from Karen Dunnell, dated May 2008:"As National Statistician, I have been asked to reply to your question asking what the projected a) population and b) population density of (i) the UK, (ii) England, (iii) Scotland, (iv) Wales and (v) Northern Ireland is for the most distant projection made by the Office for National Statistics; and what assumptions about migration have been used in calculating such projections (207695).""The 2006-based national population projections published results for 75 years ahead, that is, to 2081. Details of how to calculate the population densities for any year of the projections were provided in my reply to your PQ dated 19 May 2008 (205787). Using the country areas provided in this answer, and the projected population totals for 2081, produces the following projected densities:"

Projected population density of UK and constituent countries in 2081
	Projected population (Million)	Area (sq km)	Density (persons/sq km)
United Kingdom	85	242,495	352
England	75	130,279	574
Wales	3	20,733	168
Scotland	5	77,907	64
Northern Ireland	2	13,576	152
Source:
2006-based national projections, ONS.

"The long-term assumptions of annual net migration to the United Kingdom and constituent countries used in these recent national population projections are as follows:"

Country	Long-term migration assumption
England	+171,500
Wales	+9,500
Scotland	+8,500
Northern Ireland	500
United Kingdom	+190,000

"As previously advised in my reply to your earlier PQ (177459), the underlying assumptions for the projections are demographic trend based and should not be seen as predictions."

Secondary information

Type

Written question

Reference

207695; 476 c619W

Session

2007-08

Related items

Population
Monday, 19 May 2008
Written questions
House of Commons

Subjects

Population

Link

View this Written question on www.publications.parliament.uk