Railways: Passenger Demand

Answer: My Lords, the noble Lord makes a timely point but I think that the general industry view is that it is too soon to know whether higher fuel prices will encourage people to switch from road to rail. There is no real evidence so far. Road and rail journeys are not perfect substitutes and, in view of how commuter traffic works, individuals discouraged from driving their cars may not necessarily make the equivalent journey shift to rail. I recognise in part the statistics to which the noble Lord refers, but the latest quarterly edition of National Rail Trends reported a 4.4 per cent increase in passenger kilometres and a 4.8 per cent increase in passenger journeys this quarter compared with 2006-07.

This is an answer to the Oral question asked on Tuesday, 1 July 2008 by Lord Berkeley (Labour).

Question: My Lords, will my noble friend confirm that at least one train operator has recorded a 16 per cent increase in passenger numbers in the past six months? The evidence is that that is because of the high price of oil and people are turning from road to rail. Given that the Government’s forecasts of passenger traffic are still based on $57 a barrel for oil and it is now over $140, is it not time that the new forecasts took into account the much higher price of oil that most people believe is likely to be with us for a long time?

Secondary information

Type: Oral answer to question
Reference: 703 c129
Session: 2007-08
Chamber / Committee: House of Lords chamber
Subjects: Forecasts Railways Passengers Passenger demand forecasting handbook
Link: View this Oral answer to question on www.publications.parliament.uk