Written question asked by Norman Baker (Liberal Democrat) on Tuesday, 28 April 2009, in the House of Commons. It was due for an answer on Thursday, 30 April 2009. It was answered by Jim Fitzpatrick (Labour) on Monday, 11 May 2009 on behalf of the Department for Transport.

Aviation

Question: To ask the Secretary of State for Transport what the latest unconstrained demand forecast for UK air travel in 2030 is taking account of (a) the errata published on 17 March 2009 to the January 2009 UK Air Passenger Demand and CO2 Forecasts and (b) the revised gross domestic product forecasts contained in the 2009 Budget Report.

Answer: The Department for Transport's latest forecasts of unconstrained demand in the UK in 2030 are given in table 2.10, page 44 of "UK Air Passenger Demand and CO2 Forecasts" published in January 2009. The central estimate is 465 million passengers per annum (mppa). Table 2.10 of the report also reports the Department's forecasts of unconstrained demand under a range of sensitivity tests, including one which reflects the GDP forecasts announced at the time of the 2008 pre-Budget report (referred to as 'PBR Nov 2008 GDP forecast').The Department published the errata on 17 March 2009 following the discovery of an input error to the 'PBR Nov 2008 GDP forecast' sensitivity test. The corrected forecast of UK unconstrained demand in 2030 for this sensitivity test given in the errata is 435 mppa (revised down from 445 mppa, given in the published report). The central case forecast and other sensitivity tests were not affected by the errata.The Department has not yet updated its forecasts to reflect the 2009 Budget report. It aims to publish updated forecasts when there is a policy need, as it did recently alongside the announcement of policy decisions on the future development of Heathrow airport.

Secondary information