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Population

Answer

The information requested falls within the responsibility of the UK Statistics Authority. I have asked the authority to reply.Letter from Karen Dunnell, dated July 2009:"As National Statistician, I have been asked to reply to your question asking what most recent projections made by the Office for National Statistics are of population densities in (a) the UK, (b) England, (c) Scotland, (d) Wales and (e) Northern Ireland for (i) the earliest date for which such projections have been made ""(ii) 2031, (iii) 2056 and (iv) the latest date for which such projections have been made; what estimate has been made of the population density of each such area in 2009; what information the Office for National Statistics holds on the population density of other EU Member States for the purposes of comparison with its projections for the UK. (288409)""Projected population densities can be calculated for any year from the published projected total population for that year and the relevant land area. The estimated population density for mid-2006 and projected population densities derived from the 2006 population base are given in the table below for the years 2009, 2031, 2056, 2081 and 2106.""The next set of national population projections, based on the mid-2008 population estimates, are due for publication by the Office for National Statistics on 21 October 2009."

Projected population density of UK and constituent countries for selected years 2006 to 2106
Persons/sq km
	2006	2009	2031	2056	2081	2106
United Kingdom	250	255	293	324	352	379
England	390	398	464	521	574	626
Wales	143	145	159	165	168	171
Scotland	66	66	69	67	64	61
Northern Ireland	128	132	147	153	152	150
Note:
Population densities for 2006 are derived from mid-year population estimates, whilst those for 2009 onwards are derived from the 2006-based population projections. All densities have been calculated assuming constant land area for the UK and its constituent countries into the future.
Source:
Office for National Statistics, General Register Office for Scotland and Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency

"National population projections are produced for up to 100 years ahead, but only published for up to 75 years ahead, and are available from the National Statistics website at:""http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=8519""However, long-term projections should be treated with great caution. Population projections become increasingly uncertain the further they are carried forward, particularly for smaller geographic areas.""Eurostat publishes estimates of population densities for all EU countries up to 2007—see table tps0003 under main demographic indicators at:""http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/population/data/main_tables"

Secondary information

Type

Written question

Reference

496 c1058-9W; 288409

Session

2008-09

Subjects

Population

Contains statistics

Yes

Link

View this Written question on www.publications.parliament.uk