Written question asked by Stephen O'Brien (Conservative) on Wednesday, 26 March 2003, in the House of Commons. It was due for an answer on Tuesday, 1 April 2003. It was answered by Brian Wilson (Labour) on Tuesday, 1 April 2003 on behalf of the Department of Trade and Industry.

Dept of Trade and Industry

Question: To ask the Secretary of State for Trade and Industry, what assessment his Department has made of the effect of (a) a short and (b) a prolonged conflict in Iraq on the underlying supply and demand situation for oil. - Includes figure.

Answer: Mr. Stephen O'Brien: To ask the Secretary of State for Trade and Industry what assessment his Department has made of the effect of (a) a short and (b) a prolonged conflict in Iraq on the underlying supply and demand situation for oil. [105689] Mr. Wilson: No significant disruption to the underlying supply and demand balance for oil is expected to arise from military action in Iraq. Prior to conflict, Iraqi oil production stood at around 2.5 million barrels per day or only 3 per cent. of total world oil production and of which only around 1.5 to 2 million barrels per day was exported. Over the past few months, producers have increased oil supplies and this incremental supply is now reaching markets, with more oil on the way. Combined with a seasonal downturn in world oil demand in the second quarter this is helping to balance the oil market. OPEC producers have pledged to use their available excess capacity to ensure that the market remains adequately supplied. Moreover, the International Energy Agency remains ready to reinforce producers' efforts, including through the release of stocks, should the need arise.

Secondary information