Written question asked by Norman Baker (Liberal Democrat) on Friday, 26 November 2004, in the House of Commons. It was due for an answer on Monday, 6 December 2004. It was answered by Elliot Morley (Labour) on Monday, 6 December 2004 on behalf of the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.

Dept for Environment Food and Rural Affairs

Question: To ask the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, what assessment she has made of the volumes of methane likely to be released following the effects of climate change in polar regions; and what assessment she has made of the effect that the release of such methane will have on climate change. - Inc figures.

Answer: Norman Baker: To ask the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs what assessment she has made of the volumes of methane likely to be released following the effects of climate change in polar regions; and what assessment she has made of the effect that the release of such methane will have on climate change. [200704] Mr. Morley: There are currently large uncertainties in the estimates of present-day natural methane fluxes. There are also large uncertainties in the projections of changes in these fluxes under climate change, due both to the responses of methane emissions to warming and the changes in wetland area under climate change. However, modelling studies performed by the Hadley Centre for the UK Climate Prediction programme funded by Defra indication that methane emissions from wetlands north of 45?N will approximately double by 2100 relative to the present day, from 50 to 95 Terragrams per year. It is estimated that this will contribute an additional 1 per cent. to global warming over the 21st Century. It should be noted that this does not consider the potential release of methane from ocean hydrates, which has not yet been quantified, but is the subject of research within the Climate Prediction Programme.

Secondary information