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Treasury;Office for National Statistics

Answer

Mr. Hayes: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what estimate he has made of the change in population arising from changes in (a) net indigenous population and (b) net immigration in each decade to 2050, broken down by region. [187335] Ruth Kelly: The information requested falls within the responsibility of the National Statistician, who has been asked to reply. Letter from Len Cook to Mr. John Hayes, dated 7 September 2004: As National Statistician I have been asked to reply to your question concerning the change in population arising from changes in net indigenous population and immigration in the decades to 2050, by region. (187335) The attached table shows population projections at Government Office Region level for the years 2000, 2010 and 2020. These figures are 1996-based and are the latest basis on which long-term subnational population projections are currently available. These projections have a 25 year "horizon" and so only figures to 2020 are available at this geographical level. The projected natural population change (number of births less number of deaths) and the assumed level of net international migration, for each region, are also shown in the table. It should be noted that these two components are not independent, and that the level of natural change projected for the future is itself partly dependent on the assumed level of net migration. The figures shown in the table for England are not the latest 2002-based projections produced by GAD but are 1996-based to be consistent with the subnational projections shown. Please note that these include a lower assumption for international migration than the latest set which can be found at: http://www.gad.gov.uk/ Population/index.asp A note considering the overall impact of assumed net migration on future population growth is available from the Government Actuary's Department website at: http://www. gad.gov.uk/ Population/2002/methodology/mignote.htm. This is a UK level analysis from GAD's latest (2002-based) national projections. Comparable analysis is not available for the 1996-based projections. The Office for National Statistics will publish 2003-based subnational population projections on 16 November. Information about this release can be found at: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme population/ Subnational/Projections-22July2004.pdf Projected Population by Government Office Region for Decades--Total population for Government Office Regions as shown, 2000, 2010, 2020 Thousand _________________________________________________________________________________________________. Year Area Population 2000 2010 2020 England Total population 49,730.2 51,031.6 52,361.2 (10-year change) 1,301.5 1,329.6 Net natural change 640.8 669.0 Net international 658.6 658.6 migration North East Total population 2,584.0 2,539.4 2,511.8 (10-year change) -44.7 -27.6 Net natural change -18.7 -16.5 Net international 10.9 10.9 migration North West Total population 6,875.4 6,823.7 6,809.4 (10-year change) -51.7 -14.3 Net natural change 25.5 36.5 Net international -5.3 -5.3 migration Yorkshire and Total population 5,065.2 5,122.9 5,193.5 the Humber (10-year change) 57.7 70.6 Net natural change 43.1 56.1 Net international 34.3 34.3 migration East Midlands Total population 4,217.0 4,369.4 4,510.4 (10-year change) 152.4 141.0 Net natural change 25.2 20.2 Net international 41.7 41.7 migration West Midlands Total population 5,338.5 5,369.2 5,407.5 (10-year change) 30.7 38.3 Net natural change 53.3 47.5 Net international 42.4 42.4 migration East Total population 5,418.8 5,678.4 5,918.1 (10-year change) 259.6 239.8 Net natural change 63.2 44.5 Net international 58.2 58.2 migration London Total population 7,191.6 7,442.6 7,712.3 (10-year change) 251.0 269.7 Net natural change 422.8 480.8 Net international 310.0 310.0 migration South East Total population 8,088.6 8,496.5 8,869.5 (10-year change) 407.9 373.0 Net natural change 81.8 67.2 Net international 113.5 113.5 migration South West Total population 4,951.0 5,189.6 5,428.7 (10-year change) 238.6 239.1 Net natural change -55.4 -67.3 Net international 53.0 53.0 migration _________________________________________________________________________________________________. Source: Office for National Statistics

Secondary information

Type

Written question

Reference

424 c1199-201W;424 c1208-9W; 187335

Session

2003-04

Subjects

Immigration Forecasts Population Migration

Contains statistics

Yes

Link

View this Written question on www.publications.parliament.uk