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Armed Forces Personnel

We have had an excellent and wide-ranging debate. I will start by referring to one of the first points that my hon. Friend the Member for Woodspring (Dr. Fox) addressed: the overall background of funding for the armed forces. He identified the fact that we are spending only 2.2 per cent. of gross domestic product on our armed forces, which is the lowest amount since 1930. It is interesting that in the other place yesterday, Lord Drayson admitted that"““as a percentage of GDP, UK defence expenditure has gone down.””—[Official Report, House of Lords, 5 July 2006; Vol. 684, c. 229.]" There was also an interesting exchange in the other place about whether defence expenditure had gone up in real terms. My noble Friend Lord King of Bridgwater noted that although there might have been an increase in expenditure in real terms, it has happened at a time of sustained increase in defence commitments. That is perhaps how we square the circle when some Labour Members point to an increase in resources, while many hon. Members on both sides of the House draw attention to areas of overstretch. Although there have been real-terms increases in defence expenditure, despite the fact that it has fallen as a percentage of GDP, we are asking our armed forces to do more and more at the same time, which is why problems are arising. My hon. Friend the Member for Woodspring reminded us that the armed forces have been operating above the assumptions in the strategic defence review. Indeed, the National Audit Office military readiness report that was published in June 2005 highlighted the fact that the armed forces had been operating consistently over the planned level of activity during 2002, 2003 and 2004. That has continued, but it cannot continue for ever. The Minister of State, the right hon. Member for East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow (Mr. Ingram), will know—if he does not, the Secretary of State, as the former Chief Secretary to the Treasury, will—that the Government will soon undertake their comprehensive spending review. Will the Minister tell us whether the Secretary of State is planning to conduct a new strategic defence review ahead of the comprehensive spending review? If not, will Ministers at least examine the assumptions that underlie what we ask our armed forces to do? Given the number of the years for which we have been operating above those assumptions and the fact that there is no sign that the dangerous world that we are in will change in the future, it would seem sensible to take account of the tempo at which we have been operating and ensure that the Chancellor delivers in his settlement for the next few years. The Chancellor is trying to create a reputation for himself as a friend of the armed forces, but he will be judged on that military settlement. I was disturbed to note from several of my hon. Friends’ contributions that the Ministry of Defence has been warned to expect a less than generous settlement, although I hope that that will not prove to be the case. If anyone knows how to negotiate well with the Treasury, I am sure that it is the Secretary of State.