---

EU: Enlargement (EUC Report)

My Lords, I add my congratulations to the noble Lord, Lord Grenfell, and his committee on this excellent and informative report. Having sponsored a debate on Turkish membership of the Union in your Lordships’ House in December 2004, I wish to focus my brief remarks on that issue. As the noble Lord, Lord Grenfell, stated, the report concludes in paragraph 293: "““Whatever the hesitation and hostility hanging over Turkey’s accession negotiations, we believe that it is in both Turkey’s and the EU’s best interests that the accession negotiations be pursued in good faith and with a will to bring them to a successful conclusion””." The report deals with all the pros and cons of Turkish membership and rejects the idea of a privileged partnership as an alternative to full membership. But let us suppose that the Cyprus issue is resolved, that Turkey manages to maintain its secular status and to meet the Copenhagen criteria, and that full membership is finally achieved at some moment in the future. The European Union will then be changed in three important respects. With a population, by then, of around 100 million, Turkey will be the largest member of the Union, which will have all sorts of implications for management and voting strength. It will also have more Members of the European Parliament than Germany, France or the UK. Secondly, given free movement of labour, there will inevitably be a substantial migration from Turkey to the west, and thus a substantial increase in the Muslim population of existing member states. Thirdly, Turkey’s geographical location takes the Union beyond the boundaries of Europe and links it more directly with the problems of the Middle East. These are major changes and involve huge uncertainties. It is easy to see why, for some, the risks outweigh the proposed benefits. But, accepting the risks, we must agree with the conclusions of the report that it is in the best interests of both parties, at this stage, to pursue the negotiations in good faith.