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Unemployment in the UK

I join the hon. Member for Epsom and Ewell (Chris Grayling) in welcoming the new faces on the Treasury Bench. I also welcome the debate; it is good to be talking about such important issues so soon. When I was looking for an update on the latest figures, I found an estimate produced by the British Chambers of Commerce today that unemployment figures will rise by 350,000 by next year, which shows how important the issue is and how crucial it is that we do something as soon as possible to try to stem the problem. The recent rises in unemployment have been widespread across the economy in general, but in the main they can be attributed to people who have been unemployed for less than six months, men, those aged between 25 and 49 and those in the north and the midlands. Specific groups need support and help at this time. In a long-term crisis, we can use indicators to measure the severity of the situation. Looking at those indicators today, some of them are particularly worrying for the future. One of them is the increasing length of time that somebody is unemployed. As it becomes harder to find work, people are unemployed for longer. As we are at the beginning of the crisis, that is not happening yet. However, the number of vacancies relative to the number of filled jobs has been falling recently, especially in certain sectors such as construction, finance and business and other services. That is a worrying indication for the future. Another indicator relates to average earnings. When times are very tough, earnings grow more slowly as employees' bargaining power is eroded as the job market changes. It is too early to see clear trends, but the latest figures—for June—show that average earnings growth, including bonuses, fell from 4 per cent. at the beginning of the year to 3.4 per cent., which, despite large rises in inflation over the same period, suggests that the bargaining power of employees is beginning to become more limited. That is a worrying sign for the long term.