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Finance Bill

I have seen that comment, but I come back to the point that it is very difficult to disentangle all the various factors involved. The fall in interest rates at that time will have had a substantial effect on sales, as we have seen. Having read the CEBR report, does the Minister agree with its view, which differs from that of the Government, on the actual cost of the VAT policy? The report cites a figure of £11 billion, rather than £12.5 billion. I would be grateful if the Minister updated the House on the Treasury's assessment of that cost, and told us by how much he thinks sales will increase. To what extent is the Government's view consistent with that of the CEBR? That brings me to the heart of amendment 8, which deals with the need to look again at this matter and for the Treasury to prepare a report and to evaluate the various consequences of the policy. There is a need to assess the policy in greater detail. There is clearly a debate to be had, and the Government will always argue that the policy has been successful. Most of us would argue that the fall in interest rates had a greater impact on retail sales, and the growth in the economy is certainly disappointing compared with what the Government were hoping for when they announced their policy. I am not, however, convinced as to whether the Treasury is the right body to review this, which I say in the context of last month's Budget, whose numbers have been heavily criticised. I will not go through all the detail, but the growth forecasts for 2009 and, more particularly for 2011 and 2012, seem to be out of line with those of most independent forecasters. The Government's reputation for making projections of the public finances has been very poor, and we have seen those projections substantially revised. The point I am making is that there is a need for a body independent of the Treasury to make an assessment of projections for growth and for the public finances. We propose an "Office of Budget Responsibility", and there may well be a case for referring this sort of review to a body that is at arm's length from the Treasury in order to assess whether the right approach is being put forward. I raise this particular caveat over the Liberal Democrat amendment, but there is much to be said for looking again at a policy that has not, I fear, by any means provided the best use of £12.5 billion of taxpayers' money.