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Finance Bill

I have some sympathy with that view, and it reinforces the difficulty of using proxies in such matters. The assumption is that because VAT has been reduced, people will go out and buy more VAT-able items. That assumption contains fallacies, and I am not sure that the distinction is very clear. But that is part of the difficulty of using proxies in situations where we do not have a proper counter-factual—what would have happened if what is being examined had not occurred. One can make a best guess and even do some modelling, but there is nothing to actually compare, which is why proxies are used. I agree that it is a difficult issue, but that is why claims that the VAT cut has worked are unsubstantiated and probably far from the mark. I have already mentioned the comments from the report that the Financial Secretary is always keen to quote on such occasions about the impact of the date of the change. I wonder whether Ministers actually go shopping any more. Do they realise that Christmas and new year sales occur? That is not a hint for a present from the Financial Secretary, as I am sure that that would need to be declared somewhere. The arguments on the timing have already been made, and I have made my points about the difficulties of assessing the impact of the VAT cut.