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UK Relations with Russia

We need to look at our relationship with Russia having examined our past. We in Europe have come out of two devastating world wars. We have seen the fall of the Berlin wall, the 20th anniversary of which is approaching. There have been non-violent revolutions in Czechoslovakia and Ukraine, and democracy has spread across eastern Europe. However, there has also been ethnic cleansing in the Balkans and war and heightened tensions in the Caucasus. We are withdrawing from Iraq and sending more troops to Afghanistan. North Korea remains isolated and antagonistic. Iran is a growing nuclear threat and Pakistan is unstable. These are far from peaceful times. There are new threats: terrorism from religious extremism, and the looming threat of climate change, with its impact on the migration of people, water shortage and famine. Energy security is rising up the political agenda, as are cybersecurity, the war on drugs and the threat of nuclear weapons in the control of rogue states. Russia, a former superpower, wants to re-establish its global presence and is moving into a new era of diplomatic relations that are fraught with complexity. The collapse of the former Soviet Union was not a triumph of democracy, but more one of economic disintegration. As Russia recovers financially, it seeks a new role and status in a changing world. That is seen particularly in Russia's relationship with China. The fall of the Soviet Union allowed China to grow in influence and power, particularly economically. China and Russia are participants in the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation, which aims to provide a regional, multilateral framework within which mutually beneficial co-operation in economic, political, diplomatic, security and trade spheres can be pursued. It has become known in some quarters as the NATO of the east, with some writers even suggesting that it could develop into a trade bloc rival to the European Union. The Shanghai co-operation agreement has been used to maintain de facto control over political movements within central Asia, yet Beijing and Moscow diverge on issues such as energy assets and who should become new members of the organisation. There is already a possible Sino-Russian tension. China is buying into Russia's petrochemical industry, which adds to Russia's concerns. China has shown a willingness to invest billions of dollars in areas such as the far east and Siberia, and even along the Moscow-St. Petersburg highway. Some would argue that, in that area of Russia, China's influence is soon to become greater than that of the Russian central Government. There are those, therefore, who argue that China's rise is as great a threat to Russia's east as NATO is to its west. That gives the west an opportunity to develop a different dialogue and a new relationship with Russia. Through its role in NATO, the UK plays a critical role in working in partnership with Russia, in particular on tackling terrorism, nuclear non-proliferation, the war on drugs and climate change. The resumption of formal engagement between NATO and Russia on the NATO-Russia council is a positive step and opens up discussions in those areas of potential co-operation. I agree with the hon. Member for Hammersmith and Fulham (Mr. Hands) that other positive steps have been taken recently, with nuclear non-proliferation and missile defence moving back on to the political agenda, thanks to announcements made by our Prime Minister and by President Barack Obama. Iran is a major issue in terms of political and nuclear threats. It is seeking membership of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation, consistent with its "looking east" foreign policy. If we are to have the support of Russia in tackling the threats posed by Iran, it is important that we also tackle Russia's feelings of insecurity in relation to the west. For the west and for Russia, Afghanistan, religious extremism, terrorism and drug trafficking are major threats. In Russia, 10,000 people a year die from drugs, with 70,000 people dying drug-related deaths. We have a major opportunity to work together to tackle the problems of drugs that come out of Afghanistan and the chemical processes needed to process those drugs, which are currently trafficked through Russia. We have an opportunity to create joint structures to build on border and police capacity to tackle drug smuggling. The economic crisis in Russia is expected to last long into 2010, giving increased significance to the UK's position as the biggest foreign investor in Russia's oil and gas industry, and the largest source of foreign direct investment into Russia. Russia's economy is less than 3 per cent. of world gross domestic product, and is forecast to remain below 3 per cent until 2030. Even Russia's oil and gas companies, whose output is beginning to decline, cannot thrive without foreign technology, expertise and capital. To develop, Russia will need the support of the west and of the UK to develop its legal system, to tackle economic and banking regulation, and to develop its capacity for labour movement—a problem that is holding back its economic development. Although Russia currently fears further NATO enlargement, especially the entry of Ukraine and Georgia, and seeks to erode the significance of NATO and EU membership, we have to look at the realpolitik of how we develop the relationships between Russia and the UK and NATO. In a global world, our emphasis has to be on our shared problems. We in the west have long believed that capitalism, prosperity and liberalism go in hand in hand, but the end of the cold war has shown that belief to be fallible. The solution is political engagement through bodies such as the World Trade Organisation, increased exposure to the European Union and to EU offers and efforts to build Russia's economy, and work with NATO on joint military developments and exercises. There is the possibility of a new relationship with Russia in a new global world. We cannot be innocent and deny the risks that Russia poses to the west, but we cannot turn our backs on potential opportunities to bring Russia further into closer alliance with the west, and to understand the opportunities that co-operation and working together can bring for peace, security and financial security for Russia.