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Policy for Growth

I, too, thank the right hon. Member for Wokingham (Mr Redwood) for securing today's debate. I always admire the ingenuity with which he manages to weave into most of his speeches his perennial faith in the fallacy of the Laffer curve and his plea that we go easy on the banks. Today, he did so in respect of the capital holding legislation that is meant to protect us from the next recession that the banks might cause, as they caused the last one. I should like, however, to make a plea for more evidence than Laffer uses in order to support our economic policy, because we do not have one that is based on evidence. We have a hit-and-hope policy that is based on faith. We know—the Government have told us endlessly—that the deficit was too high; investor confidence was diving; we could not afford to pay back our debt; we looked very much like Greece; the only answer was to cut 8% or thereabouts of GDP, which would restore confidence and we would see heroic growth, such as we had never seen, of 2.5% per year and an enormous explosion in the private jobs market. The trouble is that neither economic theory nor the evidence supports that argument. I cannot really address the economic theory in too much detail given the time, but history and most economists would agree that when we contract growth by about 1%, that leads to a 0.5% contraction in GDP. That is what history has shown, and that could leave us with a 4% contraction in GDP due to the 8% effective reduction in spending over the next four to five years. Instead, I shall consider the current evidence that we have to support the Government's theory, because that is all it is—a theory. In order to have growth, we must have investor confidence, and we must, as the hon. Member for Stafford (Jeremy Lefroy) said, have an export-led recovery. Investor confidence is not present in the economy: that much is clear to us. The private sector is holding surpluses, not investing. I worked as a director of a biotech company for a long while before I came here, and I know that the biotech and pharmaceutical industries are not investing—they are laying people off, not taking them on. Next, we need confidence that we are going to see some growth in the economy. Much has been made of the fact that we had 0.8% growth in the last quarter and 1.2% previously. As I said, the construction industry is what has driven much of that, but last week's purchasing managers index for construction managers shows that the order book is drying up; they are looking at 1% growth in the last month. The construction industry is laying people off, not taking them on. The markets are telling the Government that they do not have confidence in the economy. The yield on five-year bonds is down at -0.44%, which differs from the 3.5% rates that we were seeing in 2008. That is the market giving its view, in pricing terms, that there will be no or low growth in the economy. Merrill Lynch said this week:"““There are worries over the health of the economy and the danger that the government's austerity measures are going too far.””" HSBC said:"““The market…is sceptical about growth prospects””." That is the reality of the situation that we face right now. The International Monetary Fund has said that the Government need to develop a plan B. Olivier Blanchard, its chief economist, has said that he fears that the way in which the contraction is being front-loaded is going to damage our economy. It is places such as Wales, and my constituency of Pontypridd, that will see the worst impact of a further recession. The Government must come up with a plan B, and quickly.