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National Insurance Contributions Bill

I congratulate my hon. Friend the Member for Luton South (Gavin Shuker) on his comments. In a nutshell, he has summed up many of the problems and inconsistencies in the Bill. It seems that it has something of a split personality, which has been caused by the Government trying to face in two different directions simultaneously. At the election, many people thought that the Conservatives were promising to reverse entirely the national insurance rise. We consistently heard from the Prime Minister and the Chancellor on that issue. Unfortunately, the public did not see the small print that existed at the time. The Government are merely chipping away at those national insurance changes, and only for employers. That may not actually be a broken promise, but they have rowed back from the impression that they gave to the public. They let everyone think that they were against the change to national insurance, but they never actually intended to reverse it. It is fascinating to see them attempt to cover up that particular shortcoming with the partial increase in the employer national insurance threshold coupled with what most hon. Members, including most Government Members, have described as a complex and insubstantial national insurance tweak that applies to some entrepreneurs in some parts of the country, welcome though it will be to many of them. Political acrobatics have resulted in a contorted Bill, as my hon. Friend the Member for Brent North (Barry Gardiner) argued when highlighting the incoherence of the Bill. It is true that the previous Labour Administration were prepared to take tough decisions on tax and national insurance, because the banking bail-out required us to raise funds to compensate. The hallmark of political parties is the choices that they make on taxation and expenditure. This Government have chosen to cut severely investment in public services and to raise VAT to 20%. A Labour Government would have chosen a steadier and more sustainable approach to deficit reduction, but national insurance changes would be part of that. We chose the national insurance route rather than the VAT route for very good reasons. Slightly contrary to the point made by the hon. Member for Newton Abbot (Anne Marie Morris), the national insurance changes were not going to be made in June; they were always going to come in from next April, by which time we had hoped that the recovery would be well under way. Unfortunately, the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats have chosen to go for the VAT increase. That will hit slightly earlier, albeit by only a few months, but the economy will feel it like a punch in the stomach. Their VAT jobs tax could have a greater impact on employment, which it will hit significantly, than the national insurance changes. The CIPD, to which many hon. Members referred, predicts that around 250,000 private sector jobs will be affected, and possibly lost, by the VAT increase, which is just around the corner.