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Prevention of Nuclear Proliferation

I rise to suggest to the Minister not only that it is questionable whether sanctions are working but that they may be counter-productive. I also suggest that the west underestimates its ability to influence Iran. It is a complex society with multiple centres of authority and constant power struggles. I hope that our Government will recognise that better in our diplomatic efforts. Iran is a very wealthy country when it comes to minerals; other major powers are queuing up to gain access to its oil. That lessens the impact of sanctions from the west. Anyway, if Iran has set herself on nuclear weapons, she will not be scared away; if she has not, sanctions will, in my view, serve only to encourage her to get them. In our discussions on Iran, we tend to forget too easily that it is a complex society justifiably proud of its history. As we have heard, the Parliament has protected rights for minorities; Iran's 25,000 Jews are represented by a Jewish MP. We forget that there is no desecration of synagogues, which is more of a problem in Europe. We also forget that there is a well developed middle class in Iran that often disagrees with Ahmadinejad, as recent protests have illustrated. My concern is that sanctions are counter-productive. Support for the current hardliners in Iran probably increases as a result of sanctions—Iranians responded to Bush's talk of an axis of evil in 2002 by removing the reformist President Khatami. I suggest that the only sensible course of action is calm yet vigorous diplomacy.