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What might a 'Godzilla' El Niño mean for the UK?

El Niño conditions form when warmer waters spread across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, resulting in global changes to weather and climate.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has said that El Niño is firmly established, with a very high likelihood that these conditions will persist until February 2027.

El Niño can disrupt agriculture, energy supply, trade, water resources, supply chains and livelihoods.

What is El Niño?

El Niño is part of a naturally occurring climate pattern which disrupts normal conditions in the Pacific Ocean.

The full name of this climate pattern is the ‘El Niño–Southern Oscillation’ (ENSO); ‘southern oscillation’ refers to atmospheric pressure changes between the east and west tropical Pacific. The ENSO has two opposing parts: 

• El Niño, whose conditions are characterised by warmer-than-average ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific
• La Niña, whose conditions are characterised by cooler ocean surface temperatures

During normal conditions in the Pacific Ocean, trade winds blow west along the equator, taking warm water from South America towards Asia. As this warm water moves, upwelling of cold water from the deep ocean replaces it. The ENSO disrupts both trade winds and upwelling:

• In El Niño conditions, trade winds weaken and warm water is pushed eastwards towards the Americas. El Niño reduces upwelling of cold water in the west, which results in the temperature difference across the Pacific Ocean reducing. This causes unsettled weather to move towards the central pacific and the jet stream to move south of its normal position, influencing weather conditions across the world.
• In La Niña conditions, trade winds and upwelling strengthen, and warm water is pushed further west towards Asia. This causes the jet stream to move north of its normal position and generally leads to the opposite weather conditions to El Niño.

An El Niño event generally occurs every two to seven years, and lasts for around nine months to a year. El Niño is more frequent than La Niña.

Different meteorological organisations use different thresholds to classify an El Niño event. In the UK, the Met Office declares an El Niño event when sea temperatures in the eastern Pacific rise 0.5°C above the long-term average. The Met Office declares a La Niña event when sea temperatures fall 3°C to 5°C below the long-term average.

How does El Niño affect weather and climate?

El Niño directly increases the temperature of the Pacific Ocean, which in turn transmits heat into the atmosphere, increasing global average temperatures. Most El Niño events increase global average temperatures by around 0.2°C. The warming caused by an El Niño event in 2026 is likely to be greater than the warming caused by previous El Niño events because it will sit on top of the longer-term warming trend caused by anthropogenic climate change.

El Niño also drives more extreme weather and rainfall patterns. Areas close to the Pacific may experience much wetter conditions than normal, while more eastern areas, such as Australia, Indonesia and parts of South East Asia, may become drier and more prone to droughts. It may also disrupt the Indian Ocean monsoon, with tropical storm formation more likely across the Pacific and hurricane formation less likely across the Atlantic. The WMO’s global seasonal climate update says that almost all regions are likely to experience above-normal temperatures, with an increase in drought in some areas and an increase in extreme rainfall in others.

The effects of El Niño on global temperature and rainfall are generally most pronounced in the second year after an El Niño event develops.

What do we know about the formation of El Niño in 2026?

The WMO has said that El Niño is firmly established, and that exceptionally warm conditions in the Pacific indicate that conditions will further intensify. It projects that El Niño will strengthen over the rest of 2026, and says that it is very likely that these conditions will persist until February 2027.

Sea surface temperatures across the central Pacific have been rising steadily over 2026, with observed temperatures surpassing El Niño thresholds. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in June 2026 that El Niño conditions were present across the Pacific, and as of mid-August 2026 the WMO said that persistently high sea surface temperatures indicated that El Niño was firmly established.

This is the first El Niño since the 1990s caused by warm ocean temperatures in the central Pacific (a ‘Modoki’ El Niño); more recent events have been caused by warmer temperatures in the eastern Pacific. This means that less is known about how an El Niño event of this type will behave on a warmer planet, as significant global warming has taken place since the last events caused by warming in the central Pacific.

The effects of a 2026 El Niño event will likely be felt globally.

Will it be a ‘super’ El Niño?

Several forecasts from national weather agencies indicate that the next El Niño could be one of the strongest on record. Some forecasters have said that it could be a ‘super El Niño’ (or even a “Godzilla” El Niño); that is, a situation where ocean temperatures rise over 2°C above the long-term average.

In August 2026, the UN said that El Niño was strengthening rapidly to become “supersize”, and aggregated analysis from climate models suggest that ocean temperatures could exceed 4°C above the long-term average. The El Niño has strengthened earlier than other ‘super’ El Niño events, such as those in 1997 and 2015. The WMO states that El Niño will bring unusually high temperatures towards the end of the year. Forecasts from a range of climate models suggest that it may be the largest in 150 years, with the potential to raise temperatures to 1.7°C above pre-industrial levels in 2027.

The Met Office does not use the term ‘super El Niño’, but it has said that the current conditions suggest the current El Niño will be a significant event. It initially said that it could be comparable to the 1997 El Niño, which resulted in record heat and extreme weather, thousands of deaths globally, and tens of billions of pounds' worth of economic damage from storms, heatwaves, floods, frosts and droughts. In August 2026, the Met Office said that the El Niño could be the largest “in living memory”, and that it was an unprecedented event.

However, even if this El Niño is not as strong as currently projected, it could still lead to record temperatures, as any additional warming will sit on top of a longer-term upward warming trend.

What are the impacts of this El Niño so far?

El Niño will increase global temperatures, as well as contribute to more extreme weather and rainfall patterns.

Early analysis from national meteorological agencies indicates that the current El Niño has intensified wildfires in Indonesia and weakened monsoon rains in India. The emerging conditions resemble those of previous significant El Niño events.

Increasing ocean temperatures in the tropical pacific have led to a limited catch for anchovies in Peru, as these fish swum off to deeper, cooler waters in search of food. Millions of tonnes of anchovies produced in fisheries each year are used for fertiliser and animal feed.

As of late August 2026, coral bleaching has been observed in reefs around Florida, Panama and Kiribati. Scientific monitoring has found that in large parts of the oceans, temperatures have passed the threshold that put corals at risk of bleaching and heat mortality, and these temperatures are projected to rise further into 2027.

The UN has warned that 49 million people worldwide could be pushed into acute hunger because of the impacts of El Niño, stressing the impacts of droughts and flooding on agricultural yields. Tens of thousands of smallholder farms in central America have reported crop losses, with Oxfam reporting that over half of all maize and bean growing households in Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador lost between 75–100% of their harvests.

Additionally, the Climate Impact Lab, a group of scientists and economists headquartered in Chicago, has estimated that 451,000 additional heat-related deaths between June 2026 and February 2027 could be attributed to El Niño, with the majority of these across sub-Saharan Africa and the global south.

What might El Niño mean for the UK?

The European weather system is geographically far away from El Niño, and although there are sometimes links between El Niño conditions and European weather patterns, these can be hard to predict. The meteorological effects of El Niño on Europe often lag behind the actual event, and could result in more extreme winter weather. The Met Office has said that El Niño is likely to increase the chances of wetter, stormier conditions in North West Europe during autumn and winter of this year.

Past El Niño events have increased global temperatures and caused more extreme weather and rainfall. Increased flooding, storms, wildfires and droughts across the world could lead to crop losses and supply chain disruption, which could affect the UK. Following a series of roundtables convening academics and industry experts, the Government Office for Science identified a series of impacts, including specific risks to food supply and higher prices for commodities such as rice, cocoa and coffee. The government also noted the potential for changing global weather patterns to increase demand for liquified natural gas, placing additional pressure on domestic energy security.

A report from international affairs think tank Chatham House warned that a strong El Niño could compound existing climate risks in the UK. The government has recognised the risks that El Niño creates for food security and severe weather. It has said that it is investing in specific climate modelling services, and has a plan to coordinate responses to severe weather. When asked about the steps it was taking to prepare for the current El Niño, the government said that the Met Office would continue to monitor the situation and that the Cabinet Office would convene the cross-government ‘Severe Weather Resilience Network’ should severe weather conditions be forecast for the UK.

In September 2026, the government said that up to £15 million of aid funding “is being made available through the Humanitarian Crisis Fund to support anticipatory action in countries most at risk from El Niño”, targeting those at risk of droughts and floods.