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Written question asked by Lord Rogan (Ulster Unionist Party) on Tuesday, 2 December 2025, in the House of Lords. It was due for an answer on Tuesday, 16 December 2025. It was answered by Lord Livermore (Labour) on Wednesday, 17 December 2025 on behalf of the Treasury.

Income Tax: Northern Ireland

Question

To ask His Majesty's Government what estimate they have made of (1) the number of additional people in Northern Ireland who will pay income tax due to the personal allowance threshold being frozen until 2031, and (2) the anticipated additional tax revenue for HM Treasury.

Answer

The number of people forecast to pay tax by marginal rate can be found in Table 3.19 in the OBR’s November 2025 Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO). This data reflects the decision made by the previous Government to maintain income tax thresholds at their current levels from April 2021 until April 2028.

3.19 Effect of personal tax threshold freezes on the number of taxpayers in each threshold (millions) [1]

2028-29

2029-30

2030-31

Number of taxpayers

With indexation

37.4

37.9

38.4

Without indexation

42.1

42.9

43.5

…brought into income tax

4.7

5.0

5.2

Number of higher-rate taxpayers

With indexation

4.1

4.2

4.2

Without indexation

8.2

8.6

8.9

…brought into higher-rate band

4.1

4.4

4.8

Number of additional-rate taxpayers

Previous £150,000 threshold

0.9

0.9

1.0

Aligned to the end of PA taper

1.4

1.5

1.6

…brought into additional-rate band

0.6

0.6

0.6

The latest yield of personal tax measures can be found in Table 3.18 in the OBR’s November 2025 EFO. As above, this data reflects the decision made by the previous Government to maintain income tax thresholds at their current levels from April 2021 until April 2028.

3.18 Latest yield of personal tax measures(£billions) [2]

2028-29

2029-30

2030-31

Changes to thresholds

54.3

60.3

66.6

[1] https://obr.uk/download/november-2025-economic-and-fiscal-outlook-detailed-forecast-tables-receipts/?tmstv=1764165511

[2] https://obr.uk/download/november-2025-economic-and-fiscal-outlook-detailed-forecast-tables-receipts/?tmstv=1764165511

Secondary information

Type
Written question
Reference
HL12584
Session
2024-26
Subjects
Income tax Northern Ireland
Contains statistics
Yes
Link
View this Written question on www.parliament.uk