Written question asked by Lord Patten (Conservative) on Wednesday, 4 March 2026, in the House of Lords. It was due for an answer on Wednesday, 18 March 2026. It was answered by Lord Livermore (Labour) on Wednesday, 11 March 2026 on behalf of the Treasury.

Taxation

Question: To ask His Majesty's Government what forecast they have made of the UK tax-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio in (1) 2025–26, (2) 2026–27, (3) 2027–28, (4) 2028–29, and (5) 2029–30; and what comparative assessment they have made of the tax-to-GDP ratio of each of the G7 countries in each of those years.

Answer

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) published the latest Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO) in March 2026[1]. This forecasts the tax-to-GDP ratio to change as follows: 2025-26 – 36.3%; 2026-27 – 37.0%; 2027-28 – 37.7%; 2028-29 – 37.8%; 2029-30 – 38.3%[2].

The UK’s current tax-to-GDP ratio is in the middle of the pack within the G7; lower than Italy (42.8%), France (43.5%) and Germany (38.0%), but above Japan (33.7%), Canada (34.9%) and the US (25.6%) based on the latest available OECD data. [3]

[1] https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/#

[2] https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/#, page 42

[3] Latest OECD data 2024, except Japan, which is from 2023.

Secondary information

Type: Written question
Reference: HL15201
Session: 2024-26
Subjects: Taxation
Link: View this Written question on www.parliament.uk

Taxation

Secondary information

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