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Written question asked by John Robertson (Labour) on Tuesday, 25 June 2013, in the House of Commons. It was due for an answer on Thursday, 27 June 2013. It was answered by Mark Hoban (Conservative) on Tuesday, 2 July 2013 on behalf of the Department for Work and Pensions.

Unemployment and Early Retirement

Question

To ask the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions what recent assessment he has made of trends in the number of (a) jobseekers and (b) people taking early retirement in (i) Glasgow North West constituency, (ii) Glasgow, (iii) Scotland and (iv) the UK; what projections he has made of trends in each category for each of the next five years; and what assessment he has made of the economic factors underlying those trends.

[162313]

Answer

The following table shows jobseekers allowance claimants in the Glasgow North West parliamentary constituency, Glasgow City local authority district, Scotland and the UK. The number of people claiming JSA has fallen in all these areas, both in the last year and since May 2010.

May 2010
 May 2011
 May 2012
 May 2013
 Change on year 2012-13
 Change since May 2010
Glasgow North West
 3,502
 3,595
 3,353
 3,136
 -217
 -366
Glasgow City
 24,529
 25,029
 24,385
 22,828
 -1,557
 -1,701
Scotland
 135,541
 140,107
 141,827
 134,410
 -7,417
 -1,131
UK
 1,502,155
 1,504,913
 1,590,708
 1,495,758
 -94,950
 -6,397
Note:
For consistency, figures above are not seasonally adjusted (seasonally adjusted data are only available at a national and regional level, not sub-regional). As such, the UK and Scotland figures will differ from the normally quoted headline numbers.
Source:
nomisweb.co.uk

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) produces an independent forecast of the claimant count. The latest forecast is published at:

http://cdn.budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/March-2013-EFO-44734674673453.pdf

OBR forecasts are only available at national level.

There is no officially recognised definition of “early” retirement. The default retirement age has been abolished. Receiving a state pension at state pension age is not synonymous with retirement from work.

The following table shows the number of people self-reporting as “retired” before state pension age. People leave the labour market for a variety of reasons. Some who report other reasons for inactivity may in effect be retired, so the figures are likely to be an underestimate. There are no projections for the number of people who will retire early.

“Retired” before State Pension Age (assumed 65 for men, 60 for women)
 Q2 2010
 Q2 2011
 Q2 2012
 Change since 2010
UK
 579,000
 603,000
 604,000
 +25,000
Scotland
 53,000
 57,000
 53,000
 +1,000
Notes:
1. These data are subject to sampling variation. Sample sizes were too small to produce figures for Glasgow City or the Glasgow North West parliamentary constituency.
2. State pension age for women is currently increasing from 60 in 2010 to 65 in 2018. For the purposes of showing a consistent comparison over time the figures in the table assume SPA for women remained at 60.
Source:
Labour Force Survey April-June 2010, 2011, 2012

Secondary information

Type
Written question
Reference
162313; 565 c577W
Session
2013-14
Subjects
Early retirement Unemployment
Contains statistics
Yes
Link
View this Written question on www.publications.parliament.uk