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Brexit: Parliamentary Approval of the Outcome of Negotiations with the European Union

My Lords, I had been going to start my remarks by saying, “Here we go again”—but unfortunately the noble Lord, Lord Cormack, got there before me. There is indeed quite a lot that is both tedious and repetitive about the string of debates that this House and the other place have been holding on Brexit. I hope that I will not be thought too disobliging if I say that today’s debate seems to show some traces of metal fatigue. However, the debates and the votes we register are necessary because only Parliament can ensure that the Government do not, perhaps inadvertently, take this country on a course that could inflict considerable loss and suffering on its citizens.

Two weeks ago, by a majority of 169, this House categorically registered that leaving without a deal needed to be rejected. I would like the Government to say—since the noble Baroness the Leader of the House did not say a word about it when she opened the debate —what account they took of that vote when they started to shape up what is described with some irony as plan B but is in reality plan A, rejected by large majorities, in flimsy disguise. I listened carefully to the Leader’s speech and she did not manage to mention plan B at all. Like TS Eliot’s Macavity the Mystery Cat, it has just disappeared. Where has it gone? I do not know—but we perhaps need to know. I fear that the answer to the question of how much account the Government have taken of your Lordships’ majority of 169 is, “Not a lot”.

It is important that the Government face up to reality and admit what the consequences of leaving without a deal would be. The noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, referred to this and I will refer to it, too. If we leave without a deal, on 30 March we will be required, not by a diktat from Brussels or Dublin but by WTO rules, to apply tariffs on all our imports from the European Union—and EU countries will be required to apply tariffs on all their imports from us. That would apply on the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland as elsewhere. Alternatively, there is one way out, which is that we apply zero tariffs to all our imports worldwide—which would remove all protection from our businesses and our farmers.

It would be helpful if the Government would say which of those choices they would make. It is rather important for businessmen who are already fulfilling contracts that involve trade in these goods. They might like to know whether the tariff will be 10%, 20%, 0% or what. That quandary was admitted by the noble Baroness, Lady Fairhead, at Second Reading of the Trade Bill on 11 September. It was also implicit in what the noble Baroness the Leader of the House said in reply to a question of mine on 21 January. Is that the Government’s view—I would very much like to hear the answer in the winding-up speech by the noble Lord, Lord Callanan—or are we planning to start our life as an independent member of the WTO by flouting its most fundamental rule: the most favoured nation rule? If that is the case, there are even more compelling reasons to rule out leaving without a deal.

It really is no good the Government repeating, as they do frequently, that they cannot single-handedly rule out leaving without a deal. That is entirely correct,

of course, but entirely insufficient. The reason is that they could quite easily say, today at the Dispatch Box, that they would do everything within their power to avoid leaving without a deal, and we would all be very happy if they said that. We would recognise that it would require the co-operation of the other member states, but it would be a good start. Frankly, if they still believe that it gives us leverage to go on playing with the trigger, they are in for another bad surprise.

Then there is that date of 29 March, which the Government insist must remain as if it were written on one of the tablets brought down by Moses from Mount Sinai. Do they not understand by now that there is not the slightest chance of being able to meet that deadline? Whatever course of action is taken, even in the eventual case of the Prime Minister’s deal being approved, there still is not time to do it and to pass all the necessary legislation under the withdrawal treaty and the political declaration. Would it not be more sensible to recognise that now and initiate discussion with the European Union about prolongation? Several views have been expressed on its duration and its motivation, and surely that would be a much more sensible course to take. No doubt the Government will be forced to get there eventually, but how much better to do it now and not to inflict more uncertainty and damage on our economy in the weeks ahead.

I hope that a clear message on these two points will go out from this House today. That is why I will support the Motion in the name of the noble Baroness, Lady Smith of Basildon. I looked at it again just now and really find it hard to believe that anybody could be opposed to the second part of the Motion—although I then listened to my noble and learned friend Lord Brown, who managed to find some reason to do so, which I am afraid I did not follow very carefully—while the first is just simple common sense.

5.37 pm