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To ask the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster what the most recent forecast is from the Office for National Statistics of the proportion of population growth (a) directly attributable and (ii) indirectly attributable to migration in each of its projections of population size.
To ask the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster what the most recent forecast is from the Office for National Statistics of the proportion of population growth (a) directly attributable and (ii) indirectly attributable to migration in each of its projections of population size.
| Table A: Projected population change, United Kingdom 2006-31 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thousand | ||||
| High migration variant | Principal projection | Low migration variant | Zero migration variant | |
| Population at mid-2006 | 60,587 | 60,587 | 60,587 | 60,587 |
| Population change (2006-31) | ||||
| Births | 20,305 | 19,847 | 19,390 | 17,458 |
| Deaths | 14,291 | 14,247 | 14,202 | 14,244 |
| Natural change | 6,014 | 5,601 | 5,188 | 3,214 |
| Net migration | 6,382 | 4,912 | 3,442 | 0 |
| Total change | 12,396 | 10,513 | 8,630 | 3,214 |
| Population at mid-2031 | 72,983 | 71,100 | 69,217 | 63,801 |
| Table B: Projected population growth by component, United Kingdom, 2006-31 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| High migration variant | Principal projection | Low migration variant | |
| Total population increase between 2006 and 2031 (Thousand) | 12,396 | 10,513 | 8,630 |
| Resulting from: | |||
| Assumed net migration | 6,382 | 4,912 | 3,442 |
| Natural change assuming no migration | 3,214 | 3,214 | 3,214 |
| Additional natural change from assumed level of net migration | 2,800 | 2,387 | 1,974 |
| Percentage of population growth 2006-31 resulting from: | |||
| Assumed net migration | 51 | 47 | 40 |
| Natural change assuming no migration | 26 | 31 | 37 |
| Additional natural change from assumed level of net migration | 23 | 23 | 23 |
| Source: | |||
| Migration and Population. Growth: | |||
| http://www.gad.gov.uk/Demography_Data/Population/2006/methodology/mignote.asp |
(2) what estimate has been made of when the population of the UK is expected to reach 70 million;
(2) what estimate has been made of when the population of the UK is expected to reach 70 million;
| Total projected population of the UK 2006—based national population projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Million | ||
| Principal projection (1) | Zero migration variant projection (3) | |
| 2031 | 71.1 | 63.8 |
| 2056 | 78.6 | 61.5 |
| 2081 | 85.3 | 57.3 |
To ask the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster (1) what the latest population projections for the UK are for (a) 2031, (b) 2056 and (c) 2081;
To ask the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster (1) what the latest population projections for the UK are for (a) 2031, (b) 2056 and (c) 2081;
| Total projected population of the UK 2006—based national population projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Million | ||
| Principal projection (1) | Zero migration variant projection (3) | |
| 2031 | 71.1 | 63.8 |
| 2056 | 78.6 | 61.5 |
| 2081 | 85.3 | 57.3 |
(3) what estimate has been made of the effect on total UK population of zero net migration by (a) 2031, (b) 2056 and (c) 2081.
(3) what estimate has been made of the effect on total UK population of zero net migration by (a) 2031, (b) 2056 and (c) 2081.
| Total projected population of the UK 2006—based national population projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Million | ||
| Principal projection (1) | Zero migration variant projection (3) | |
| 2031 | 71.1 | 63.8 |
| 2056 | 78.6 | 61.5 |
| 2081 | 85.3 | 57.3 |
To ask the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster what proportion of projected growth in UK population he expects will be accounted for by (a) immigration and (b) natural growth at the point at which the domestic population reaches 70 million.
To ask the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster what proportion of projected growth in UK population he expects will be accounted for by (a) immigration and (b) natural growth at the point at which the domestic population reaches 70 million.
| Projected population growth by component, United Kingdom, 2006-31 | |
|---|---|
| Principal projection | |
| Total population increase between 2006 and 2031(thousand) | 10,513 |
| Resulting from: | |
| Assumed net migration (thousand) | 4,912 |
| Natural change assuming no migration (thousand) | 3,214 |
| Additional natural change from assumed level of net migration (thousand) | 2,387 |
| Percentage of population growth 2006-31 resulting from: | |
| Assumed net migration | 47 |
| Natural change assuming no migration | 31 |
| Additional natural change from assumed level of net migration | 23 |
| Source: | |
| Migration and Population growth: | |
| http://www.gad.gov.uk/Demography_Data/Population/2006/methodology/mignote.asp |
To ask the Secretary of State for the Home Department what plans she has to set a limit for UK population size; and if she will make a statement.
To ask the Secretary of State for the Home Department what plans she has to set a limit for UK population size; and if she will make a statement.
Immigration controls. Nineteenth opposition day debate (part 1). Motion negatived on division (355 to 164). Amendment agreed on division (281 to 199)
Immigration controls. Nineteenth opposition day debate (part 1). Motion negatived on division (355 to 164). Amendment agreed on division (281 to 199)
I give way to the hon. and learned Gentleman for another go.
I give way to the hon. and learned Gentleman for another go.
Given that my hon. Friend is on his train of challenging sacred cows and listening to the views of our constituents, does he agree that we ought to be questioning whether uncontrolled EU migration should continue to be accepted?
Given that my hon. Friend is on his train of challenging sacred cows and listening to the views of our constituents, does he agree that we ought to be questioning whether uncontrolled EU migration should continue to be accepted?
In anticipation of further elucidation of how the Opposition will square their policy by saying to the country that there will be a population cap, while they have a detailed policy that covers only one in five migrants, I give way to the hon. Gentleman.
In anticipation of further elucidation of how the Opposition will square their policy by saying to the country that there will be a population cap, while they have a detailed policy that covers only one in five migrants, I give way to the hon. Gentleman.
If the hon. Member for Ashford and the shadow Home Secretary believe so strongly in the merits of their cap, why do not they tell us what the cap will be? We know that they want one, because they keep waving it about. They should really stop being so coy....
If the hon. Member for Ashford and the shadow Home Secretary believe so strongly in the merits of their cap, why do not they tell us what the cap will be? We know that they want one, because they keep waving it about. They should really stop being so coy....
I expect that I know rather more about the Canadian system than the hon. Gentleman knows about the Australian system, and they are very similar. I lived in Canada for nine years. I was an immigrant in Canada. Internal controls do not work unless one is prepared to say to...
I expect that I know rather more about the Canadian system than the hon. Gentleman knows about the Australian system, and they are very similar. I lived in Canada for nine years. I was an immigrant in Canada. Internal controls do not work unless one is prepared to say to...
Fair point: why does the hon. and learned Gentleman not make a speech if he has something to say? He is promulgating a policy that would put a cap on one in five individuals who come to this country. We are proposing a policy that gives us controls over three...
Fair point: why does the hon. and learned Gentleman not make a speech if he has something to say? He is promulgating a policy that would put a cap on one in five individuals who come to this country. We are proposing a policy that gives us controls over three...
I want to finish now, if I may. However, it is important that we in the House begin to think of a two-part points system: points to come here, so that people come here only because there are vacancies that cannot be filled by people who are already here, and...
I want to finish now, if I may. However, it is important that we in the House begin to think of a two-part points system: points to come here, so that people come here only because there are vacancies that cannot be filled by people who are already here, and...
My hon. Friend seldom rises in the House without enlightening us. He scatters the caliginosity that sometimes reigns here, and as ever I agree completely with him. He is absolutely right that there has been an automaticity in the process. The assumption was encouraged, in many cases by those who...
My hon. Friend seldom rises in the House without enlightening us. He scatters the caliginosity that sometimes reigns here, and as ever I agree completely with him. He is absolutely right that there has been an automaticity in the process. The assumption was encouraged, in many cases by those who...
Does the right hon. Lady believe that we need managed controls on future EU migration, particularly if Turkey joins the EU?
Does the right hon. Lady believe that we need managed controls on future EU migration, particularly if Turkey joins the EU?
Indeed, Mr. Deputy Speaker, I have heard you make no pronouncement on this subject for a very long time. I must tell the hon. Gentleman that if the problem is absence of will, we shall have to find the will. We shall have to implement the systems. That is what...
Indeed, Mr. Deputy Speaker, I have heard you make no pronouncement on this subject for a very long time. I must tell the hon. Gentleman that if the problem is absence of will, we shall have to find the will. We shall have to implement the systems. That is what...
Will the right hon. Lady give way?
Will the right hon. Lady give way?
Yes, I do. I think that experience teaches us that we must find some method of ensuring that we can exert more control than we have exerted so far. The third strand, which I particularly want to address because it has been very much pushed to one side in recent...
Yes, I do. I think that experience teaches us that we must find some method of ensuring that we can exert more control than we have exerted so far. The third strand, which I particularly want to address because it has been very much pushed to one side in recent...
Will the right hon. Lady give way?
Will the right hon. Lady give way?